1. Oregon State University (lead) University of Washington Northern Arizona UniversityUSFS Pacific Northwest Research Station University of ArizonaUSFS Rocky Mountain Research Station University of IdahoUtah State University University of MontanaWashington State University Regional Approaches for Adaptation to and Mitigation of Climate Variability and Change USDA Coordinated Agricultural Pro ject

2. What is a Coordinated Agricultural Project? Coordinated Agricultural Projects (CAPs)  Multi-million dollar projects  Multi-state, multi-institutional, and trans-disciplinary teams  Integrate scientific discoveries and technology with practical application Integrates research, education, and extension  Climate CAP teams conduct targeted research, education, and extension activities in response to the goals of the Climate Change Program

3. Regional CAP for 2010 Regional approaches to Climate Change: CAP  Application deadline – January 13, 2012  $2,000,000 per year ($10 million total) for up to 5 years  Anticipates making 2 awards among diverse agricultural systems  Regional integrated CAP focusing on mitigation and adaptation, involving research, education, and outreach  We are focusing on Forest systems: western conifers

4. Requests for applications  Adaptation – adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate change effects which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities  Mitigation – human intervention to reduce anthropogenic forcing of the climate system, including strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance greenhouse gas sinks

5. Stakeholders are critical  “Demonstrate the adoption of approaches and practices across the region…”  Stakeholders are seed orchard managers, nursery managers, silviculturists, managers of forest operations, wood products manufacturers, managers of carbon offsets programs, policy makers, teachers, and students  Organizations are forest industry, governmental agencies, tribes, small private landowners, NGOs, and universities  Included in project advisory groups

6. Long-term goal Synthesize existing knowledge and develop new knowledge on the impacts of climate change on western forest production systems, and then design, convey, and implement management strategies that maximize forest health, forest productivity, and greenhouse gas mitigation under changing climates

7. Management plan

8. Planning process – 2010-11 Oregon sub-regional meeting Idaho sub-regional meeting Regional planning meeting in Portland  Proposal presentations by group leaders  Immediate on-line feedback from stakeholders and participants  Information used to design complete project proposal  Active involvement of participants Arizona regional meeting  National Workshop on Climate and Forests  External review of complete project

9. Today’s objectives  Describe potential monitoring network Ground-based and remote monitoring networks  Describe potential modeling framework  Obtain feedback  Find stakeholders who want to be engaged

10. Today’s objectives WC4 region Analyses requiring the inclusion of non-forested areas will be conducted across the entire WC4 region depicted. Forest-based analyses will occur across the WC4 forests (Maritime West Coast and Western Cordilleran Forests in green), and particularly intensive analyses will occur at specific locations along one or more WC4 transects. Forest ecozones are from Wiken (1986) and Omernik (1987).

11. Ground-based monitoring network Long-term goal: Provide a common plot network that facilitates linkages among concurrent efforts in silvicultural experimentation, monitoring at various spatial scales, modeling tree and stand responses, physiological experimentation and quantifying storage and flux of carbon, nitrogen and water

12. Ground-based monitoring network Landowners hosting the permanent plots and supporting the silvicultural research to improve the economic and environmental performance of their forests. The proposed WC4 research will: Expand and enhance the original objectives behind establishment of the various permanent plot networks. Ensure relevance of the research activity to managers of these forests Help establish direct connections with respective landowners Provide a sense of participation by the landowners Stakeholders

13. Ground-based monitoring network Approach Establish criteria to ensure that plots considered for the WC4 network meet minimum criteria with respect to plot size, data quality, duration of past growth records and environmental monitoring, intended longevity, and climatic type (e.g., principal components ordination based on decadal ClimateWNA variables). Selected plots will receive standard instrumentation for monitoring soil moisture, soil temperature, below-canopy humidity, throughfall precipitation, air temperature, forest floor incident radiation, and any others deemed essential by the team

14. Ground-based monitoring network Selected plots will be measured consistently for tree growth, indices of tree physiological status, understory vegetation, carbon pools, soil and plant nutrient content, and others deemed essential by the team. A subset of these plots will be strategically selected for supplementary physiological measurements, and successively smaller subsets will be selected for more detailed physiological work. The plot network will be linked to remote sensing monitoring and broad scale modeling of forest dynamics. Approach (cont’d)

16. IFTNC (ID/WA)

17. SMC Type 5

18. SMC Type 1

19. Swiss needle cast, Coast Ranges Swiss needle cast, Cascades

22. Moisture and temperature sensors Fly Creek

23. Ground-based monitoring network  Common measurement protocol on all plots selected for monitoring network  Enhanced measurements and instrumentation on strategic subset of plots  3-5 intensive study sites with manipulative silvicultural/physiological experiments  Remote sensing component

24. Modeling framework  RFA text: Develop standardized methodologies for estimating carbon, nitrogen, and water footprints of regional system for evaluating the feedback linkages between changes in production system with human behavior and decision-making

25. Modeling objectives  Standardized methodologies for projecting changes in climate and stores and fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, and water  Understand potential effects of climate change on western coniferous forests and stakeholders  Monitor forest change and stakeholder behavior change

26. Requirements of modeling system  Estimate current and projected fluxes of carbon, nitrogenm, and water  Modify climate and forest management  Use proposed ground-based and remote measurements as inputs  Yield robust predictions (comparison of alternative modeling approaches)  Integrate multiple models

27. Today’s objectives  Describe potential monitoring network Ground-based and remote monitoring networks  Describe potential modeling framework  Obtain feedback  Find stakeholders who want to be engaged