1. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making Second International Seville Seminar on Future- Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 Contribution of the FORLEARN project to the study of Foresight Impact on Policy-Making Olivier DA COSTA, Philine WARNKE Fabiana SCAPOLO, Cristiano CAGNIN European Commission / Joint Research Centre / Institute for Prospective Technological Studies

2. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making Outline FORLEARN project Challenges of policy- / decision-making Interface between Foresight and policy-making Contribution of Foresight to policy-making 1.Policy informing 2.Policy facilitating through enabling change 3.Strategic counselling 4.Democratic function Different contributions at different steps of policy making Five major issues for high impact

3. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making FOR-LEARN Project Part of the Foresight Knowledge Sharing Platform initiated by DG Research Objectives: 1.Consolidating and improving access to existing Foresight knowledge and know-how 2.Providing support to practitioners undertaking Foresight exercise (territorial or sectoral) 3.Promoting mutual learning between practitioners and users 4.Improving interconnexion of European projects and actors 5.Addressing current research issues

4. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making FOR-LEARN Learning Cycle Foresight Learning Cycle WP1 Online Foresight guide WP1 Online Foresight guide WP2 Online Query WP2 Online Query WP3 Mutual Learning Workshop WP3 Mutual Learning Workshop Expertise for the support to practitioners Knowledge gaps Feedback to update the guide Foresight Learning Cycle WP1 Online Foresight guide WP1 Online Foresight guide WP2 Online Query WP2 Online Query WP3 Mutual Learning Workshop WP3 Mutual Learning Workshop Expertise for the support to practitioners Knowledge gaps Feedback to update the guide Information about Foresight such as what it is what it can do for you and what not. Practical guidance on how to design and carry out the different phases of a Foresight exercise Detailed description and implementation advises for a number of Foresight methods Case studies presenting past and current exercises (territorial or sectoral) emphasising practical information and lessons learned Links to more academic discussions and references to go deeper into the current research issues http://forlearn.jrc.es/guide/0_home/index.htm To promote Transfer and consolidation of knowledge Codification of practises Research on knowledge gaps Different types Bilateral (in support of a specific exercise, ex Romanian) Multilateral (addressing a knowledge gap with 10-15 experts) Consolidation (presenting results to a larger audience) Individual and targeted support to practitioners, especially beginners Direct answer Reference to other sources or contacts Possibly set-up of a Mutual Learning Workshop to address the issue more in depth

5. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making Challenges of policy- / decision-making Under severe time pressure Information overload not always reliable not always relevant Speed of change & uncertainty, Increasing complexity of issues Multi-dimensional: S&T, economic, cultural & social, political, environmental Inter-connection, inter-dependency, multi-causal Good old fashioned control system not applicable You can never change one thing Difficulty to switch modes dealing with urgency long-term thinking Challenge to transmit complexity

6. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making Bottleneck in the communication Huge basis of material in the Society, Academy, Industry (over)simplification and formatting for the messages to go through: indicators, ranking... Problematic of policy-making often on a reduced basis Black box Pandora box

7. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making Three approaches Increase the bandwidth Huge basis of material in the Society, Academy, Industry Optimise the signal Transmit more relevant, useable and operational material Improve reception Improve credibility by giving good advises Make thing interesting rather than boring Increase the bandwidth Create mechanisms of consultations at different steps of policy-making Couple qualitative with quantitative Use parallel channels of attention: pictures, movies… Use of the media Problematic of policy-making often on a reduced basis Optimise the signal Improve reception

8. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making Why revisiting impact on policy-making? From interviews and literature review: Increasing emphasis on impact assessment and on value for money Debate on new policy-support instruments Long-standing experience in Foresight allows for review of lessons learned

9. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making Two main functions of Foresight for policy making Actor Policy Actor Informing policy Acto r Facilitating Policy Foresight process Foresight product

10. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making Anticipatory intelligence Dynamics of change (scenarios, roadmaps) Future opportunities & threats Strengths & weaknesses of the current system for addressing future challenges (e.g. skills & competencies available) Visions for change Recommendations for action Based on a diversity of knowledge sources Stakeholders views Viewpoints and expectations in reference to a policy field New ideas from new channels 1: Policy informing function Policy Informing policy Foresight product

11. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making 2: Policy facilitating function Actor Policy Actor Foresight process Facilitating Policy through enabling change Within the targeted arena of change: Common ground Linkages & interfaces Combinations between elements (e.g. institutions, companies, people, knowledge, beliefs, technologies, products) Joint visions Learning platforms Soft coordination Awareness of policy objectives, strategy and constraints Willingness to contribute to policy implementation because of agreement with the goal to reach and even feeling of ownership Distributed intelligence Shared information as an input to decision-making for various actors and stakeholders beyond policy-makers Policy benefit: Enhanced the receptivity of the systems and thereby its capability to react to future challenges and evolve in phase with policy- making Remark: In innovation policy, fostering the ability to change and the connectivity are objectives in themselves in order to enhance the innovation capability

12. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making Two main functions Policy Foresight product Informing policy Facilitating Policy Highlighting: Dynamics of change Future risks & opportunities Capabilities of the system New ideas & visions Stakeholders views Enabling change by building amongst stakeholders: Common ground Soft coordination Distributed intelligence Foresight process

13. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making 3: Strategic counselling function Specific function for some policy-oriented exercises Concept: Joint translation of outcomes from a collective exercise into strategic options for a specific policy actor (e.g. ministry) Outcome: Future-oriented strategies in specific policy fields (e.g. adaptive, robust) adapted to the needs of a specific policy actor

14. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making 3: Strategic counselling function Policy Product: Informing Collective Foresight Process: Facilitating Strategy Phase Adapted strategic options

15. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making 4: Democratic function Improve the transparency and legitimacy Especially for policy with long-term impact or large budget spending

16. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making Foresight in policy-making Evaluation Agenda- setting FORESIGHT Strategy building Ex-ante impact analysis Learning Implementation Understanding of changes Receptivity of the system New ideas Legitimacy, transparency Visions Strategic options

17. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making Five crucial issues identified by practitioners [2 nd FORLEARN Mutual Learning Workshop Brussels April 2006] 1.Embedding Foresight in policy process 2.Adequate involvement of policy makers 3.Joining policy implementation 4.Building a reservoir of knowledge 5.Linking to choices and values

18. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making 1 Embedding Foresight in policy process Issue Foresight outcomes are only taken onboard if they are well in phase with policy-making process, in terms of Timing Cultural compatibility Useability Approach Careful analysis of policy-context (positions of other actors etc.) to define space of manoeuvre for the policy actor Positioning in reference to other ongoing policy processes Dont stand alone but competitive

19. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making 2 Adequate involvement of policy makers Issue Finding the right balance of policy makers involvement On the one hand policy-makers require external and neutral advice On the other they may not, without early involvement, embrace the outcomes (Not Invented Here) Presence of policy makers encourages lobbying rather than creative thinking Approach Finding specific roles for policy makers in the process Windows of policy interaction & windows of seclusion

20. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making 3 Joining policy implementation Issue Anticipatory intelligence is not easily translated into strategies Even more so if it stems from a collective process Difficulty for policy makers to communicate their agenda within open process Lack of understanding about real needs of policy makers Stakeholders not in a position to develop policy strategies Approach Jointly translating anticipatory intelligence from collective process into strategic options If in line with the specific objectives of this exercise And: Keeping protected spaces for creativity Not diverting collective process with the constraints of implementation

21. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making 4 Building a reservoir of knowledge Issue Precise answers to precise questions are usually not possible on the spot, neither always desirable Changing policy agenda, difficult to be in phase Different time scales: Foresight slower than policy-making Not always possible to go through the strategic counselling phase Limit the aversion against prescriptions that some policy makers have Approach Anticipate timing of decision-making Conceptualise outcomes as a reservoir of possible policy alternatives (rather than prioritisation or recommendations) that can be adopted by different actors at different times Even in case of a major change, e.g. elections

22. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making 5 Linking to choices and values Issue Policies should be linked to normative objectives such as sustainability, quality of life etc. Stakeholders need to be convinced that the policy results of a choice, not a lack of choice E.g. French referendum on European constitution Approach Linking explicitly the exploration of the future with debates about choices and values Not only possible futures but also desirable futures

23. FORLEARN & Foresight Impact on Policy-making Thank you for your attention