1. Searching the future: impacts of technology on the schools of tomorrow Hindsight, Insight and Foresight on ICT and schooling David Wood EC/EUN funded projects: THINK, THINK AGAIN, ERNIST, P2P

2. 2 THINK: Terms of Reference Envisage how ICT might be used to strengthen public/state school systems in different national contexts Develop scenarios to describe possible futures Identify potential policy options likely to result in evolution towards specific scenarios

3. 3 Scenario Construction Articulated aspirations and goals Identified ‘axes of tension’ around which innovation will revolve Identified major actors, factors, constraints and tools – taken together to create Envisaged journeys through landscapes of the future

4. 4 THINK AGAIN : Main Issues Impact of ICT and value for money Training and CPD of teachers Quality of content, tools, environments ‘Spiralling’ out beyond the classroom (e.g. management, inspection, policy co- ordination, public-private collaboration) Landscapes, scenarios and meta-scenarios

5. 5 SCENARIO 1 ICT strengthens the centralised regulation of schooling

6. 6 SCENARIO 2 ICT supports the creation of schools as learning organisations

7. 7 SCENARIO 3 Citizenship at the centre: ICT supports the emergence of schools as core nodes in their communities

8. 8 SCENARIO 4 ICT fails to deliver: Technology meltdown

9. 9 Value for money and impacts on learning Views on the existing evidence base Future developments in assessment and the roles of ICT Knowledge creation under the different scenarios Need for a more system-based approach to evaluating costs and benefits.

10. 10 Impacts on Learning -past Economist report IMPACT-2 and –’main effect analyses’ OECD case studies –Multiple, hypothesis-driven case studies

11. 11 Impacts on learning - future? Clarification of claims for ICT Clarification of categories and architectures of ICT Classification of types and qualities of different types of evidence More focused R and D in schools and science

12. 12 Impacts on learning - future? Current examination practices fail to assess the benefits for learners promised by innovative uses of ICT Hence, need to envisage innovations in summative, formative and communicative impacts of ICT under different scenarios

13. 13 Future assessment under different scenarios Scenario 1 - extends value added analysis to national level Scenarios 2/3 - – extend and develop scenario/portraits –develop new school-based assessments –Integrate school R and D with external research processes

14. 14 CPD for whom? “Training teachers in ICT pedagogical literacy is not a sufficient condition for the enhancement of learning” CPD for school managers and leaders CPD for the inspectorate Multiple constraint alignment

15. 15 Alignment of constraints Learner and ICT Teacher (Learner and ICT) School (Teacher, Learner and ICT) Community (School, Teacher, Learner and ICT) Policy and policy agencies (Community, School, Teacher, Learner and ICT)

16. 16 Scenario Development & Uses Netherlands - school portraits Switzerland - teacher scenarios France - co-ordination and scenario development UK - scenario development for school leaders OECD - scenarios for policy formulation

17. 17 Designing a new balance sheet? If ICT becomes mission critical, impacts on the system as a whole -spiralling out Look for models? Economist and IBM?

18. 18 Partners in the process Partners in case studies –Denmark –France –Netherlands –Portugal –Sweden –UK –Hungary –Iceland –Switzerland