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© Vattenfall AB Launching of the second European Climate Change Programme (ECCP II) Lars Strömberg Vattenfall AB Stockholm/Berlin Stakeholder Conference Brussels 24th October 2005
© Vattenfall AB 2 Whos got the problem ?
© Vattenfall AB 3 ECCP I - experiences CO 2 free power plant
© Vattenfall AB Lars Strömberg Vattenfall AB Cost and Potential of options to reduce CO 2 emissions Principal example Cost for carbon dioxide avoidance [EUR/ton CO 2 ] Potential [Percent] Hydro Solar Wind Biofuel Reforestation CO 2 sequestration Coal to gas Coal to coal Oil to gas Late change coal The picture will look different when different time perspectives are adopted Picture is from 2000
© Vattenfall AB 5 Reductions of CO2 – What ECCP 1 gave The ECCP 1 work identified a number of measures which could to be taken. Without agreement among all, it was concluded that almost 30 % reduction could be reached at a cost below 50 /ton CO 2 –Change from coal to gas –Introduce more efficient coal power technology –Wind power –Biofuels, especially in the heat sector –More CHP
© Vattenfall AB 6 Cost and Potential of options to reduce CO 2 emissions until 2010 Derived from ECCP Energy Supply Preliminary report. Cost for carbon dioxide avoidance [EUR/ton CO 2 ] Potential [Percent] Solar Wind CO 2 sequestration Methane mines Biomass heat Coal to gas Biomass heat CHP Coal to Coal
© Vattenfall AB 7 Reductions of CO2 – What we have learned (2) Now, after 4 years we have learned a few things: –We will remain to be dependant on fossil fuels for a long time –Change from coal to gas has not happened Due to high gas prices and lack of long time confidence –Building new efficient coal - yes Several large plants have been built and at least seven large units under way. –Wind power has severe limitations Cost lies about 70 – 90 /MWh When capacity (MWs) exceeds about 10 % in an area, the system cannot take any more, need for extra transmission and reserve power MW wind leads to that conventional power can only be reduced MW according to one study
© Vattenfall AB 8 Reductions of CO 2 – What we have learned (3) –Biofuels are used, especially in the heat sector. All district heat and CHP is using biofuel in Sweden today (140 TWh fuel) To maintain competitiveness for bio fuels, it is necessary to keep CO 2 tax in parallel with the trading system, at a level of 75 /ton of CO2 Biofuel usage has reached its limit in Sweden. 45 % of the fuel is imported from Russia, Baltic states and Canada ! –CHP is built wherever possible Few opportunities left
© Vattenfall AB 9 Reductions of CO 2 – What we have learned (3) Carbon Capture and Storage CCS has gained much recognition and development is going fast. –Many countries have recognized CCS as a powerful tool and have introduced it in their plans to fulfill their environmental goals The USA, UK, Australia, France, Germany among many others –CCS does cost 20 – 25 /ton CO2 ECCP 1 assumed 50 /ton of CO2 –Storage capacity exceeds the remaining fossil fuel reserves –Storage in geological formations is available all over the world, all over Europe, off-shore and on-shore –CCS will not be available in a large scale until 2015 –2020 ECCP 1 assumed before 2010 –CCS can probably reach half of the mitigation necessary to reach our long term goals of 60 – 80 % of reduction until 2050
© Vattenfall AB 10 Emission Trading Emission Trading sets the commercial framework for new technology in Europe
© Vattenfall AB 11 European CO 2 trading system Sept. 2005
© Vattenfall AB 12 Allocations in the European trading system In total units is included in the trading system. In the National allocation plans Mton/year or 6300 Mtons for three years have been distributed. This is the roof set for emissions. The deficit is calculated to 180 Mton for 3 years. The power industry has a deficit of 360 Mton. Other sectors have an overallocation.
© Vattenfall AB 13 Marginal cost vs. Reduction of CO2 emissions in EUR/ton CO2 Source: ECOFYS Economic evaluation of sectorial reduction objectives for climate change The price in Sept 2005 is about 24 /ton CO2 ???
© Vattenfall AB 14 Capture and storage Capture and storage of CO 2
© Vattenfall AB 15 The CO 2 free Power Plant principle The principle of capture and storage of the CO 2 under ground The CO 2 can be captured either from the flue gases, or is the carbon captured from the fuel before the combustion process. The CO2 is cleaned and compressed. Then it is pumped as a liquid down into a porous rock formation for permanent storage.
© Vattenfall AB 16 Storage and transport CO 2 free power plant
© Vattenfall AB 17 Storage of CO 2 in a Saline Aquifer under the North Sea The Sleipner field. Oil and gas production facilities. (Source: STATOIL ) CO 2 -injection into the saline aquifer Utsira. (Source:STATOIL)
© Vattenfall AB 18 Storage Capacity, saline aquifers There exists more storage capacity within Eorope (and in the world) than the remaining fossil fuels Source: Franz May, Peter Gerling, Paul Krull Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover
© Vattenfall AB 19 CO 2 Transport and storage Schweinrich structure Two pipeline transport routes are possible Both routes can be designed to follow existing pipeline corridors >90% Structure can contain 1,4 billion ton of CO2, equivalent to about emissions from 6000 MW their whole lifetime Berlin
© Vattenfall AB 20 Reservoir simulation – 40 year model Due to buoyancy, the CO 2 strive against the top of the formation The CO 2 spreads in the whole reservoir Conclusion: It is possible to inject 400 Mt CO 2 Injection at flanks
© Vattenfall AB 21 Geological structure modelling. Schweinrich 10 years 200 years 500 years 2000 years 5000 years years
© Vattenfall AB 22 Capture CO 2 free power plant
© Vattenfall AB 23 Post-combustion capture This technology is already commercially available in large scale (500 MW). It is at present the most expensive
© Vattenfall AB 24 Pre-combustion capture This technology needs development. Might be competitive. The gasifier exists in demo plants. The turbine is in the lab stage. Produces Hydrogen as an intermediary product
© Vattenfall AB 25 O 2 /CO 2 combustion is the preferred option at present At present the most competitive and preferred technology for coal. It needs development, pilot and demo plants to get design data
© Vattenfall AB 26 Total generation cost of electricity with CO 2 penalty
© Vattenfall AB 27 Generation cost with and without CO 2 capture
© Vattenfall AB 28 Electricity generation costs CC CO2 capt.PF oxyfuelCCPF
© Vattenfall AB 29 Generation costs incl. CO 2 costs (20 /ton) PFCCPF oxyfuelCC CO2 capt.
© Vattenfall AB 30 Avoidance costs of CO 2 PF with CO 2 capture Gas CC with CO 2 capt Avoidance costs
© Vattenfall AB Lars Strömberg Vattenfall AB Cost and Potential of options to reduce CO 2 emissions Principal example Cost for carbon dioxide avoidance [EUR/ton CO 2 ] Potential [Percent] Hydro Solar Wind Biofuel El CO 2 Capture and Storage Coal to gas Oil to gas New efficient coal New Picture 2005 including recent knowledge Savings Biofuel Heat
© Vattenfall AB 32 Carbon capture and storage from Coal fired Power plants can be done at a cost close to 20 /ton CO2 –Capture at about 15 /ton of CO2 –Storage at lower than 2 /ton CO2 –Transport depending on distance and volume, but 5 /ton of CO2 for large plants on shore More than enough storage capacity on shore and off shore is at hand in saline aquifers Technology choice is not yet made. Oxyfuel is preferred technology in Vattenfall at present The commercial choice stands between Gasfired CC without CCS, taking the penalty of CO2 emission, and Coal fired plants with CCS Conclusions from analysis - Reduction of CO 2 Lars Strömberg Vattenfall AB Corporate Strategies
© Vattenfall AB 33 Taking responsibilty Lord Oxburgh, former chairman of Shell Transport and Trading: "CCS is absolutely essential if the world is serious about limiting greenhouse gas emissions The new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes: CCS could achieve more than half of the emissions reductions necessary to mitigate climate change up to 2100 Vattenfall agrees with this. We also believe CCS is needed to fulfill our climate goals
© Vattenfall AB 34 Back up CO 2 free power plant
© Vattenfall AB 35 The Climate Change The Climate Change problem is for real EU ministers have agreed on, that we have to reduce the emissions to maintain a reasonable CO2 concentration in atmosphere –15 – 30 % until 2030 –60 – 80 % until 2050 A radical solution is necessary. We cannot wait
© Vattenfall AB 36 CO 2 storage cost Fictive cost calculations using tool developed in EU-funded GESTCO project: Storage at Schweinrich of 10 Mton CO 2 per year over 40 years:
© Vattenfall AB 37 CO 2 transport cost: Transport to Schweinrich from Schwarze Pumpe power plant: Distance 320 km 10 Mton CO 2 per year over 40 years:
© Vattenfall AB 38 Pilot Plant CO 2 free power plant
© Vattenfall AB 39 Construction area
© Vattenfall AB 40 Boxberg IV Why Oxy-fuel technology ? We work with all three (four) technologies, but: Oxyfuel technology is the technology giving lowest costs at present It is suitable for coal and have relatively little development work left We can build on our good experience with present PF technology
© Vattenfall AB 41 Analysis of some technology options CO 2 free power plant
© Vattenfall AB 42 CO 2 Free Power Plant: Technology Choice The ultimate technology choice is not clear yet. Several technologies will probably be applied to different commercial situations. Post combustion capture. –At present the most expensive option but commercially available in large size. –Can be applied to existing plants. –Needs no demo. Optimization of existing options needed. Pre combustion capture. –The most complicated technology. IGCC demos have not been successful –Produces hydrogen as integrated intermediate fuel for the power process, from coal or gas. –Development need for the gas turbine run on hydrogen – Lab tests + pilot + demo CO 2 /O 2 (oxy-fuel) capture –The most preferred option at present –Technology straight forward and builds on the modern supercritical coal fired boilers –Tests in technical scale positive. Needs pilot plant and demo plant Chemical Looping technology is the most interesting long term option. –Lab experiments very encouraging.
© Vattenfall AB 43 Specific data for the plants Options for reduction of CO 2 Lars Strömberg Vattenfall AB Corporate Strategies PFCCPF oxyfuel CC with capture Specific Investment costs /kWe Additional investment mio Power output MW Energy penalty MW18095 Efficiency %456036,549
© Vattenfall AB 44 Common data used for the four plants: Options for reduction of CO 2 Coal Price50 $/ton ~ 5,7 /MWh Gas price13 /MWh Depreciation time25 years Interest rate10%
© Vattenfall AB 45 The Problem Fossil fuels are needed –Analysis show that fossil fuels will remain as major energy source in 2030 ( 85 %) The top priority is to introduce renewable energy sources in the energy system –All analysis show that renewable energy sources will play a large role, but not large enough and soon enough In several countries nuclear power is decommissioned No renewable energy source not known today can play a significant role in 25 years from now, i.e Emissions from fossil fuels must be reduced
© Vattenfall AB 46 Schwarze Pumpe power plant
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