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BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010.

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Presentation on theme: "BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010."— Presentation transcript:

1 BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

2 Contents Objectives & main steps Results: different supplies Costs Supply-demand Further steps 2

3 Biomass categories included Biomass from agriculture – Dedicated cropping – Primary residues (straw, prunnings, manure) Biomass from forestry – Round wood production – Additionally harvested wood – Primary forestry residues – Secondary forestry residues Biomass from waste – Waste biomass – Primary, secondary, tertiary residues 3

4 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Steps Mapping (present) technical potential Add cost information and derive cost-supply relations Add sustainability criteria and map the environmentally constrained potential Use potentials as a basis for further scenario- modelling studies estimating future biomass supply-demand and related environmental impacts 4

5 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Examples of mapped technical potentials Agricultural by-products Dedicated cropping

6 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Manure Factors determining potential: Type and animal numbers (LSU/ha) Manure surplus (in Nitrate Vulnerable areas max 170 kgN/ha) Source: Eurostat FSS, NVZ maps, own elaborations

7 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Manure available (2005) EU-Total: 1726 KTOE (1.4% of total potential) EU-Total: 2724 KTOE (2.3% of total potential)

8 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Pruning material available (2005)

9 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Total pruning material (2005) Total: KTOE 9% of the total present potential

10 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Straw JRC approach Sources of straw: all cereals, maize (straw of corn), rapeseed, sunflower Sustainably harvested potential Minus competing uses (animal bedding, mushroom production)

11 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Straw EU-total: KTOE 23% of total potential EU-total: KTOE Based on CAPRI baseline scenario 2020

12 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Factors determining waste potential Number of inhabitants Welfare level Industrial development Present collection activities Source of data: Eurostat waste statistics (year 2008). Bias towards countries with good collection and registration systems!

13 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Wastes

14 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Summary waste Waste categories Potential KTOE % of total potential Present recovery rate Wood waste Very high in most countries Animal waste from food industry High in some countries Organic waste from households and industry High in some countries Paper cardboard Very high in most countries Common sludges36993Low

15 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Present recovery of which some going to bioenergy

16 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Verge grass Total potential: 1856 KTOE 2% of total potential

17 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Dedicated cropping 2008 Maize 2008 OSR 2008 Sugarbeet 2008 Sunflower 2008Cereals Perennials 2008Total AT BG BE CZ DE DK GR ES FI FR HU IE IT NL PL PT0.0 RO SE UK Total % potential0.4%4.4%0%0.8%1%0.3%6.9%

18 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Future dedicated cropping with perennials Based on land availability and cropping mix as predicted by CAPRI in baseline scenario 3 options: – High support for cropping, competes with arable crops on good-medium productive arable lands – Some cropping support, is economic on fallow and former olives and vineyards i.e. the lower productive lands – Some support for establishment and bringing back into production of abandoned land in areas with large abandoned land resource

19 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 On good-medium productive arable lands Assumption of 5% of 2020 good-medium quality land High yield per hectare Very large indirect land effects Southern Europe large pressure on scarce water resources Largest potential

20 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 On low productive arable lands Assumption of 10% of 2020 fallow, olive and vineyards Medium-Low yield per hectare Limited indirect land effects Large adverse effects on biodiversity Lowest potential of 3 options

21 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 On former abandoned lands Estimate was that in involved regions abandoned land share was 5%-10% of UAA. Of this 5% was used for dedicated biomass cropping Low yield per hectare No indirect land effects Some negative effects on biodiversity What is effect on soil-C?

22 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Main observations regarding supplies – Largest supply in industrial and municipal waste, however many alternative uses – Most by-products still under-utilised – Present dedicated cropping potential 22

23 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Cost-supply France 23 FRANCE price (Euro/KTOE )Ktonprice Cum. Kton animal waste Organic waste Industry+HH common sludges wet manure Verge grass paper cardboard wood-waste OSR Sunflower straw_ dry manure straw_ prunings Perennials Maize Cereals Sugarbeet

24 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Cost-supply Netherlands 24 NETHERLANDS price (Euro/KTOE)Ktonprice Cum. Kton animal waste Organic waste from industry+HH common sludges dry manure wet manure verge grass paper cardboard wood-waste OSR prunings straw_ straw_ Maize Sugarbeet Sunflower Cereals Perennials

25 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Cost-supply Germany 25 Germany price (Euro/KTOE )Ktonprice Cummula tive Kton animal waste bmw common sludges dry manure wet manure bermgras paper cardboard OSR wood-waste straw_ straw_ prunings Perennials Maize Cereals Sugarbeet Sunflower

26 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Cost-supply Poland 26 POLAND price (Euro/KTOE )Ktonprice Cummula tive Kton animal waste bmw common sludges dry manure wet manure wood-waste paper cardboard bermgras prunings OSR straw_ straw_ Perennials Maize Sugarbeet Sunflower Cereals

27 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Total cost-supply EU Very large potential at very low price: 1)>50% Industrial + household wastes, but now mostly NOT used at all or not for bioenergy generation 2) By-products agriculture (straw, prunings)

28 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Conclusions Largest cheap potential in waste. Improved organisation of collection, treatment, logistics will improve access to this resource By-products from agriculture also have important potential, now still under-utilised. Forestry potential should be included. Will certainly add importantly.

29 June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Future work – Draft results need further critical review and improvements – Scenario application to extrapolate present potentials to future technical-economic and sustainable potential – Forestry potential still to be included – Cuttings/pruning from landscape elements, recreational and nature conservation areas should still be mapped. But difficult. 29


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