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BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010.

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Presentation on theme: "BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010."— Presentation transcript:

1 BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

2 Contents Objectives & main steps Results: different supplies Costs Supply-demand Further steps 2

3 Biomass categories included Biomass from agriculture – Dedicated cropping – Primary residues (straw, prunnings, manure) Biomass from forestry – Round wood production – Additionally harvested wood – Primary forestry residues – Secondary forestry residues Biomass from waste – Waste biomass – Primary, secondary, tertiary residues 3

4 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Steps Mapping (present) technical potential Add cost information and derive cost-supply relations Add sustainability criteria and map the environmentally constrained potential Use potentials as a basis for further scenario- modelling studies estimating future biomass supply-demand and related environmental impacts 4

5 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Examples of mapped technical potentials Agricultural by-products Dedicated cropping

6 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Manure Factors determining potential: Type and animal numbers (LSU/ha) Manure surplus (in Nitrate Vulnerable areas max 170 kgN/ha) Source: Eurostat FSS, NVZ maps, own elaborations

7 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Manure available (2005) EU-Total: 1726 KTOE (1.4% of total potential) EU-Total: 2724 KTOE (2.3% of total potential)

8 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Pruning material available (2005)

9 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Total pruning material (2005) Total: 11424 KTOE 9% of the total present potential

10 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Straw JRC approach Sources of straw: all cereals, maize (straw of corn), rapeseed, sunflower Sustainably harvested potential Minus competing uses (animal bedding, mushroom production)

11 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Straw EU-total: 27948 KTOE 23% of total potential EU-total: 47960 KTOE Based on CAPRI baseline scenario 2020

12 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Factors determining waste potential Number of inhabitants Welfare level Industrial development Present collection activities Source of data: Eurostat waste statistics (year 2008). Bias towards countries with good collection and registration systems!

13 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Wastes

14 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Summary waste Waste categories Potential KTOE % of total potential Present recovery rate Wood waste32310.927 Very high in most countries Animal waste from food industry2762.82 High in some countries Organic waste from households and industry25656.021 High in some countries Paper cardboard50413.442 Very high in most countries Common sludges36993Low

15 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Present recovery of which some going to bioenergy

16 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Verge grass Total potential: 1856 KTOE 2% of total potential

17 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Dedicated cropping 2008 Maize 2008 OSR 2008 Sugarbeet 2008 Sunflower 2008Cereals Perennials 2008Total AT53.011.50.06.02.00.072.6 BG0.0 243.50.0 243.5 BE1.22.40.0 3.70.07.3 CZ0.0122.00.0 122.0 DE399.51800.92.40.0253.53.62459.8 DK0.0 170.58.5179.0 GR0.0 9.30.0 9.3 ES0.0 68.928.00.196.9 FI0.00.60.0 0.579.280.3 FR53.91378.152.468.2622.614.92190.1 HU0.011.80.012.80.0 24.5 IE0.0 6.9 IT0.05.30.054.00.073.6132.9 NL1.26.50.0 7.7 PL0.01477.00.0 117.61594.6 PT0.0 RO0.013.80.0493.30.0 507.0 SE0.061.50.0 55.245.0161.7 UK0.0427.20.0 32.921.7481.8 Total508.85318.654.8955.81168.8371.18378.1 % potential0.4%4.4%0%0.8%1%0.3%6.9%

18 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Future dedicated cropping with perennials Based on land availability and cropping mix as predicted by CAPRI in baseline scenario 3 options: – High support for cropping, competes with arable crops on good-medium productive arable lands – Some cropping support, is economic on fallow and former olives and vineyards i.e. the lower productive lands – Some support for establishment and bringing back into production of abandoned land in areas with large abandoned land resource

19 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 On good-medium productive arable lands Assumption of 5% of 2020 good-medium quality land High yield per hectare Very large indirect land effects Southern Europe large pressure on scarce water resources Largest potential

20 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 On low productive arable lands Assumption of 10% of 2020 fallow, olive and vineyards Medium-Low yield per hectare Limited indirect land effects Large adverse effects on biodiversity Lowest potential of 3 options

21 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 On former abandoned lands Estimate was that in involved regions abandoned land share was 5%-10% of UAA. Of this 5% was used for dedicated biomass cropping Low yield per hectare No indirect land effects Some negative effects on biodiversity What is effect on soil-C?

22 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Main observations regarding supplies – Largest supply in industrial and municipal waste, however many alternative uses – Most by-products still under-utilised – Present dedicated cropping potential 22

23 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Cost-supply France 23 FRANCE price (Euro/KTOE )Ktonprice Cum. Kton animal waste-421594-421594 Organic waste Industry+HH-424885-426478 common sludges-421326-427805 wet manure017138024943 Verge grass217192125662 paper cardboard21109932136655 wood-waste3986103945265 OSR 20085026345047899 Sunflower 2008501305048029 straw_202075222697570298 dry manure842248470522 straw_2004100892010079441 prunings123291112382352 Perennials 20081303113082384 Maize 200821435121482735 Cereals411193641184671 Sugarbeet 2008415.91150.241685821

24 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Cost-supply Netherlands 24 NETHERLANDS price (Euro/KTOE)Ktonprice Cum. Kton animal waste-42507-42507 Organic waste from industry+HH-4210253-4210760 common sludges-42669-4211429 dry manure-21404-2111833 wet manure024834036667 verge grass211362136804 paper cardboard2136322140435 wood-waste2721132742548 OSR 200850125042561 prunings1264012642601 straw_20041309913042700 straw_2020136 42836 Maize 20083008 42844 Sugarbeet 2008 0 42844 Sunflower 2008 0 42844 Cereals 0 42844 Perennials 2008 0 42844

25 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Cost-supply Germany 25 Germany price (Euro/KTOE )Ktonprice Cummula tive Kton animal waste-42333-42333 bmw-4210792-4211126 common sludges-42529-4211655 dry manure088011743 wet manure013785025528 bermgras216752126202 paper cardboard21226022148804 OSR 20085034425052246 wood-waste6494736461719 straw_200493131429374861 straw_202098155599890420 prunings11041711090836 Perennials 20081488 90844 Maize 2008218260121893444 Cereals41678841694233 Sugarbeet 2008562.415754952.68956294285 Sunflower 2008 0 94285

26 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Cost-supply Poland 26 POLAND price (Euro/KTOE )Ktonprice Cummula tive Kton animal waste-422138-422138 bmw-4220103-4222241 common sludges-42571-4222812 dry manure02022814 wet manure0363023177 wood-waste1853191828496 paper cardboard2194072137903 bermgras212062138109 prunings476684738777 OSR 20085028235041600 straw_2020100871910050319 straw_2004105483010555150 Perennials 200814824814855397 Maize 2008 0 55397 Sugarbeet 2008 0 55397 Sunflower 2008 0 55397 Cereals 0 55397

27 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Total cost-supply EU 2008 27 -Very large potential at very low price: 1)>50% Industrial + household wastes, but now mostly NOT used at all or not for bioenergy generation 2) By-products agriculture (straw, prunings)

28 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Conclusions Largest cheap potential in waste. Improved organisation of collection, treatment, logistics will improve access to this resource By-products from agriculture also have important potential, now still under-utilised. Forestry potential should be included. Will certainly add importantly.

29 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Future work – Draft results need further critical review and improvements – Scenario application to extrapolate present potentials to future technical-economic and sustainable potential – Forestry potential still to be included – Cuttings/pruning from landscape elements, recreational and nature conservation areas should still be mapped. But difficult. 29


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