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Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting.

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Presentation on theme: "Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting."— Presentation transcript:

1 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems D. Kraft

2 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems WG Integrative Modelling Models, software and tools supporting the utilisation and protection of the coastal and marine environment –Hydrodynamic models: current and flow –Tracing software: particles and individuals –Evaluation tools: multivariate and fuzzy –iDSS: Information and Decision Support Systems

3 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Basic ideas: We understand spatial planning on the coast and in sea as a decision-making process To participate, someone needs information iDSS are systems to manage and provide knowledge

4 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Decision-making process: Decision-making is a cognitive process leading to the selection of a course of action from different options. It consists of the mental process of thinking involved with the process of judging the merits of options and selecting one of them for action. Every decision-making process produces a final choice. (wikipedia, )

5 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Decision-making steps 1.Thinking: process information 2.Judging: forming opinion 3.Selecting: carefully choose

6 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Thinking: processing information Input:Information, facts, data Actions:Collecting data (e.g. measuring, modelling) Analysing this data (e.g. check quality) Characterising data (e.g. statistics) Homogenising data (e.g. synchronise) Integrating data (e.g. simplify, scenarios) Output:Maps, charts, indicators showing options

7 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Dealing with uncertainty: scenario analysis Uncertainty: A state of having limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe... future outcome... Scenario analysis: A process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Consider: Think carefully about (something), typically before making a decision. (wikipedia, )

8 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Question: What kind of effects do changes in the catchment area have on water quality in the sea? Action: Handpick scenarios Answer: The dominant effect is nitrification! Thinking: Example CRC-Viewer Data: H. Behrendt, G. Schernewski et al.

9 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Example CRC- Viewer

10 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems handpicking scenarios

11 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Question: What kind of effects do changes in the catchment area have on water quality in the sea? Action: Handpick scenarios Answer: The dominant effect is nitrification! Thinking: Example CRC-Viewer

12 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Judging: forming opinion Input:Options, possible measures Actions:Finding the quality of options: »Evaluate, Rate, Monetize »Whats good or worthwhile »Dealing with uncertainty of data: Scenarios Output:Quality, value, or price as a criterion for selecting measures

13 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Judging: Example ANEMOS Question: How to plan a wind park? Action: Give a estimation of importance of interests Answer: Taking satisfaction of groups into account!

14 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Example ANEMOS

15 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Example ANEMOS: estimation

16 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Question: How to plan a wind park? Action: Give a estimation of importance of interests Answer: Taking satisfaction of groups into account! Judging: Example ANEMOS

17 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Selecting: carefully choose Input:Criteria for measures Actions:Creating principles, model or standards Optimisations Cost-benefit-calculations Benchmarking Create methods of standardisation Output:Final choice

18 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Selecting: Example ComCoast Question: Sustainable spatial planning in the coastal zone? Action: Consensus on scenarios spatial development evaluation Answer:...I can bring my opinion into the discussion...

19 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Consensus on scenarios: Scenario A: busyness as usual –Ongoing economic and social development Scenario B: worst case –Disasters like storm surge and flooding Scenario C: sustainable development –Sustainable spatial planning

20 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Consensus on spatial development

21 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Consensus on evaluation

22 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Selecting: Example ComCoast Question: Sustainable spatial planning in the coastal zone? Action: Consensus on scenarios spatial development evaluation Answer:...I can bring my opinion into the discussion...

23 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Thinking: process information Judging: forming opinion Selecting: choose Scenarios: dealing with uncertainty iDSS: dealing with alternatives Steps to participation: providing information

24 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems Conclusions DSS: can think DSS: can judge DSS can select iDSS can inform But: iDSS can not discuss


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