Presentation on theme: "Climate Change Modeling for the Mediterranean region"— Presentation transcript:
1 Climate Change Modeling for the Mediterranean region MedCLIVAR workshopClimate Change Modeling for the Mediterranean region13-15/10/08, ICTP, Trieste (IT).Convenors: F. Giorgi, E.Coppola, P.Lionello, M.Zampieri
2 MedCLIVAR’s scientific priorities are: MedCLIVAR is an international program which aims to coordinate and promote the study of the Mediterranean climate.MedCLIVAR’s scientific priorities are:description of climate past evolution,assessment of climate variability,understanding the mechanisms responsible for it,identifying trends and providing climate prediction in relation to future emission scenarios.and
3 Network-objectivesTo assist scientists in developing coordinated research projectsTo favour the exchange of information, data and expertiseTo establish a network of European, Middle-East and North African institutes and scientists actively involved in regional climate studiesTo provide a source of information to assist governs and local authoritiesTo provide material and documentation to help public to reach a well formed and substantiated opinion on climate issues.and
4 WorkshopsReconstruction of Past Mediterranean Climate (Spain, 2006)Connections between Mediterranean and Global Climate Variability (France, 2007)Understanding the Mechanisms Responsible for the Mediterranean Sea Circulation and Sea level Trends (Greece, 2008)Feedbacks of the Mediterranean Dynamics in the Global Climate System (Portugal, 2009)Scenarios for Mediterranean Climate under the Increase of Radiatively Active Gases and Aerosols (Italy, 2010)… and more
5 4th ESF MedCLIVAR workshop Feedbacks of the Mediterranean Dynamics in the Global Climate Systemwill take place on 28 September – 1 Octoberin Sesimbra, Portugal.Organizers: F.Abrantes and R.TrigoFor detailed information on the workshop check the MedCLIVAR website:
9 Climate Change Modeling for the Mediterranean region. ESF MedCLIVAR assigned about 55Keuros for the organisation of workshop/conferences/events during on subjects relevant for the Mediterranean climate and MedCLIVAR objectives. The ESF-SC received 9 proposal and selected 4:Provision of climate model data to hydrological models for the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East. Date: 03-05/03/08. University of Reading (UK). Convenor: Emily BlackOxygen isotopes as tracers of Mediterranean climate variability: linking past, present and future. Date: 11-13/06/08, University of Pisa (IT). Convenor: Neil RobertsExtreme Climate Events of the Last Years in the Greater Mediterranean Region and Their Impact onMediterranean Societies. Date: 14-16/09/08, Athens (Greece). Convenor: Elena Xoplaki (CH)Climate Change Modeling for the Mediterranean region.13-15/10/08, ICTP, Trieste (IT). Convenors: F.Giorgi, E.Coppola, P.Lionello, M.Zampieri
10 MedCLIVAR special issue of Global and Planetary Change (September) (Editors P.Lionello, S.Planton, X.Rodò) has been completed. The issue contains 19 contributions, most of them available on line since October 2007.
11 scientist and data exchange program ESF Grants forscientist and data exchange programCall for workshopsNext deadline is 15th March(read carefully instructions and eligibility criteria!)Detailed informationon the workshops and awarded grants can be found at (click on “Grants”)And
12 NEXT EGU meeting in Vienna: Session and Round-table In Program Group EGU: Mediterranean Climate Sessions (EGS2003 in Nice, EGU2004 in Nice, EGU2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 in Vienna) and organization of MedCLIVAR round tables a side eventsNEXT EGU meeting in Vienna:Session and Round-tableIn Program Group“Climate past, present, future”
13 Medclivar Biblio and meta-data archives Scientists exchange program, workshops and schools are strongly connected and are expected to greatly increase the value of existing initiativesMedclivar Biblio and meta-data archives
14 The MedCLIVAR biblio-archive and metadata archive (in cooperation with pages for paleo-data) have been implemented and are operational. Contributions are welcome.Link:
15 Contacts P.Lionello firstname.lastname@example.org Roberta BoscoloWebpage: and/or
17 The Mediterranean region appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change, and it has in fact been identified as one of the most prominent climate change hot-spots (Giorgi 2006). Different generations of global model simulations tend to provide remarkably consistent climate change projections over this region (Kittel et al. 1998; Giorgi et al. 2001; Giorgi and Bi 2005a). The most prominent projected climate change signal is a pronounced warming and drying in the spring-summer seasons. During winter, precipitation is mostly projected to increase in the northern Mediterranean and decrease in the southern portions of the Basin. Modeling studies also show a general increase in interannual variability over the region (Giorgi and Bi 2005b).
18 Important changes in Mediterranean climate are already observed Important changes in Mediterranean climate are already observed. In the context of the last 500 years, the last winter decades of the 20th century have been the warmest and driest (Luterbacher et al, 2006). A positive temperature trend, superimposed to a large interannual variability, initiated in the 1890 so that, the 30 warmest (coldest) successive winters are recorded from 1972 to 2002 (form 1880 to 1909). The negative winter rainfall trend since the 1960s seems to be unprecedented in the last 500 years.
19 However there are still many open issues: models do not reproduce the present winter reduction of precipitation, present summer trends are controversial, the understanding as to why the Mediterranean is such a hot-spot need further investigation. In addition, the Mediterranean is characterized by very complex morphology, such as many mountains, complex coastlines and varied vegetation cover. In addition to modulating the climate signal, this complex morphology affects critically the development of storm systems and the occurrence of extreme events. Moreover, air-sea interactions can provide a further complicating factor in regulating climate over different regions of the basin. All these features make the simulation of Mediterranean climate particularly difficult, as it needs high resolution in order to capture fine scale processes and forcings
20 From these considerations, it is clear that regional climate models (RCMs) and variable resolution atmospheric models (VARGCMs) can provide especially suitable tools to simulate climate change over the Mediterranean. A number of RCM and VARGCM simulations of climate change over domains encompassing the most or all the Mediterranean region are already available. These include for example the experiments completed as part of the PRUDENCE project (Christensen et al. 2007) and other high resolution targeted experiments (Gao et al. 2006, Somot et al. 2007). An even wider set of RCM simulations at 25 km grid spacing should become available by the end of 2007 as part of the ENSEMBLES project. All this provides a formidable dataset to assess climate modeling and climate change over the Mediterranean.
21 The primary goal of the workshop is to intercompare available high resolution RCM and VARGCM regional model simulations over the Mediterranean. The result of this intercomparison will be a new and updated assessment of climate change at subregional scales in the Mediterranean along with related uncertainties and underlying processes. The workshop and its results will also provide a forum to discuss future research directions necessary to improve our understanding of climate change over the Mediterranean. In fact, one result of the meeting would be to propose specific activities in this regard. One of the outcomes of the workshop will also be the development of a MedCLIVAR data archive for the distribution of model simulation results
22 PRUDENCEPrediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and EffectsPrudence has provided a series of high-resolution climate change scenarios for for Europe, has analyzed the variability and level of confidence in these scenarios as a function of uncertainties in model formulation, natural/internal climate variability, and alternative scenarios of future atmospheric composition. The project has estimated future changes in extreme events such as flooding and windstorms and a robust estimation of the likelihood and magnitude of such changes.
23 PRUDENCE GCM-RCM Matrix – A2 and B2 emission scenarios
26 ENSEMBLE- based Predictions of Climate Changes ENSEMBLESENSEMBLE- based Predictions of Climate Changesand their ImpactsSTATUS: EU-fp6 Integrated project, duration 5 years 1/9/ , budget 23.1MeurosObjectives:Integrate climate change impacts studies into an ensemble prediction system, quantify the uncertainty in long-term predictions of climate change, provide a reliable quantitative risk assessment of long term climate change and its impacts. Particular emphasis is given to probable future climate changes in extremes. To focus on the needs of policymakers, ENSEMBLES considers impacts on timeframes ranging from seasonal to decadal to centennial, and at local, regional and global spatial scales.Key-activities:Organized in RT 0 to 8RT2B – Production of Regional Climate Scenarios for Impact AssessmentsRT3 – Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Model Ensembles for EuropeRT5 – Independent comprehensive evaluation of the ENSEMBLES simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses with both GCM and RCM models (interpolation to a CRU like 0.25 grid), delivery of climate datasets, assessment of observed variability, RT6 and 7: impacts (agriculture yields , water availability, diseases) and policiesensembles
27 http://www.ensembles-eu.org Thanks to C.Goodess 0.22º (25km) grid mesh (courtesy of Burkhardt Rockel)Thanks to C.Goodess
28 ENSEMBLES GCM-RCM Matrix – A1B emissions scenario Global modelRegional modelMETO-HCMPIMETIPSLCNRMNERSCCGCM3Total number5*2DMIETH1KNMIICTPSMHIUCLMC4IGKSS**Met.No**CHMI**OURANOS**Total ( )46321Thanks to C.Goodess
29 ENSEMBLES transient RCMs: „quick-look“ summer temperature Thanks to C.Goodess
30 ENSEMBLES transient RCMs: „quick-look“ winter precipitation Thanks to C.Goodess
31 Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment CIRCEClimate Change and Impact Research:the Mediterranean EnvironmentStatus: EU-fp6 Integrated project, (48months), budget 16.5 MeurosObjectives: to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area (an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area).to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area;to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area;to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change;to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders.Key-activities:(Climate dynamics RL1-6, climate change impacts RL7-RL14)Data analysis, Climate model simulations (GCM and RCM), impact studies, climate change assessment, integrated meta-database.circe
32 MODELS… RCMENSEMBLES: RT3: Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Model Ensembles for EuropeRT3 has the responsibility for providing improved climate model tools developed in the context of regional models, but contributing to high-resolution modelling in general, first at spatial scales of 50 km at a European-wide scale within ENSEMBLES and later also at a resolution of 25km for specified sub-regions.0.22º (25km) grid mesh (courtesy of Burkhardt Rockel)CIRCE:RL2 - The Mediterranean Region and the Global Climate System(i) Assemble existing scenarios that are relevant to the Mediterranean region. (ii) Perform a limited set of global scenarios with improved horizontal resolution in the atmosphere and active coupling to a Mediterranean ocean circulation model. (iii) Perform a limited set of scenarios with regional coupled models (Mediterranean simulators), using boundary conditions from existing and new global scenarios.models
33 SynthesisThis workshop aims at identifying and inter-comparing high resolution climate model simulations available for the Mediterranean region. The goal is to contribute to a new and updated assessment of climate change at subregional (Mediterranean scale), along with related uncertainties and underlying processes.The workshop is a forum fora discussion of research needs to improve understanding of Mediterranean climate change,specific proposals for future activitiesidentification of climate change simulation results for contributing to the MedCLIVAR meta-data archive
34 Welcome at ITCP in Trieste and at this MedCLIVAR workshop Welcome at ITCP in Trieste and at this MedCLIVAR workshop