Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and."— Presentation transcript:

1 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and Assessment Needs Albert Klein Tank, KNMI, Netherlands

2 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Port of Rotterdam

3 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Port of Rotterdam

4 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Port of Rotterdam

5 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Port of Rotterdam

6 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November North Sea Storm surge Sea level rise Port of Rotterdam

7 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November River Rhine Floods North Sea Storm surge Sea level rise Port of Rotterdam

8 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November February 1953

9 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Storm surge barrier Maeslant (1997) Nowadays, the design criteria of Dutch Delta works are based on: historical observations (return periods of extremes and trends) projections of future climate Port of Rotterdam

10 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Projections of future climate at regional scale Ensemble of model projections available (GCMs + RCMs)

11 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Top-down approach emission climate sensitivity / global warming regional climate change range of impacts Schneider, 1983; Henderson-Sellers, 1993; Wilby and Dessai, 2010 Projections of future climate at regional scale

12 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Top-down approach Bottom-up approach emission climate sensitivity / global warming regional climate change range of impacts vulnerability now observed climate var. & change non-climatic pressures adaptation options climate change narratives future vulnerability robust measures socio-econ. scenarios monitoring Schneider, 1983; Henderson-Sellers, 1993; Wilby and Dessai, 2010 Projections of future climate at regional scale

13 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Regional information is more scattered; many different sources: Historical observations

14 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Regional information is more scattered; many different sources: 1)in-situ observations 2)satellite climate data records 3)(regional) reanalyses of past weather Historical observations

15 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Regional information is more scattered; many different sources: 1)in-situ observations long-term records (50-100yr) but sparse 2)satellite climate data records spatially extensive but short (<30yr) 3)(regional) reanalyses of past weather complete but expensive and some bias Historical observations

16 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November In-situ observations of precipitation extremes Source: ECA&D Increase in precipitation fraction due to heavy events is seen in other regions too (IPCC-AR4)

17 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Reduction is in qualitative agreement with model projections for the 21 st Century e.g. Kharin et al. J.Climate, 2007 Van den Besselaar et al., Int.J.Climatol., submitted In-situ observations of precipitation extremes 5-day extremes Northern Europe winter (DJF)

18 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Satellite climate data records

19 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Decadal variability in solar energy potential Subsequent periods of brightening, dimming, and brightening illustrated here with sunshine duration data from stations (Sanchez-Lorenzo, 2008)

20 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Decadal variability in solar energy potential Subsequent periods of brightening, dimming, and brightening illustrated here with sunshine duration data from stations (Sanchez-Lorenzo, 2008)

21 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Reanalyses of past weather

22 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November The 1894 storm in NW Europe Reanalyses of past weather included in the 20th Century Reanalysis by Compo et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2011

23 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November L L Compo et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2011

24 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Climate Indicator Bulletins (CIBs) blend of data from stations, satellites and reanalyses user-oriented focus on trends and variability in impact relevant indicators of climate extremes Towards more integrated products for Europe

25 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November ERA-Interim ECMWF MSU UAH Courtesy: John Christy (top), Adrian Simmons (bottom) In-situ NOAA Moscow heat wave, July 2010

26 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November 31 days with T-max > 25°C against 9.5 days in a normal July Source: ECA&D Moscow heat wave, July nights with T-min > 20°C against 0.5 night in a normal July

27 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Interaction between providers and stakeholders helps specify the needs in more detail Important to discuss and communicate the uncertainties (due to emissions, model limitations, internal variability, observational gaps/changes and errors) Lesson learned: guidance information is crucial Final remarks: user interaction

28 Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, November Thank you


Download ppt "Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google