IPCC 200+ scientists worldwide Most comprehensive review of all published works Very likely – 90% certainty – increase in temperature is due to manmade CO 2 >1 o C locked in since Industrial Revolution IPCC work defines all international frameworks Kyoto Protocol UN agreement to prevent dangerous climate change –Below 2 o C, includes China and the US
At 2 o C… Kilimanjaro loses all snow, rendering Africa snow free for first time in 11,000 years Most of Great Barrier Reef will be dead Every summer will be like 2003 – when 30,000 died of heatstroke – what about extremes? Greenlands ice sheet will melt completely, a 1m rise in sea level for UK Arctic sea ice will be negligible, polar bears facing extinction Catastrophic collapse of agriculture in China, India, N. America Non-linear feedback mechanisms…?
Stern Warnings Climate Change is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen. Our actions over the coming few decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20 th century. The Economics of Climate Change Sir Nicolas Stern (October 2006)
And Transport? Deep emissions cuts will be required in the transport sector. Large- scale uptake of a range of clean transport technologies is likely to be more difficult in the shorter term, but will ultimately be needed. The Economics of Climate Change Sir Nicolas Stern (October 2006)
Transports Share 28% of total CO 2 e in 2006 (22% from road transport)
Not just CO 2 … >200 LAs have declared AQMAs 95% due to NO 2, PM 10, i.e. road traffic Most of TRN within AQMA 40,000 premature deaths a year Increases in childhood asthma Pollution worst in deprived areas, poor Quality of Life UK will not meet EU targets for NO 2 set for 2010 Legal ramifications? Judicial review?
Transport Policy DfT has four key policy areas: Reduce fossil carbon content of fuel Increase fuel efficiency Encourage a move towards more environmentally sustainable forms of transport Work towards inclusion of transport in the Emissions Trading Scheme
What is an organisations Carbon Footprint? The WBCSD / WRI GHG Accounting Protocol: a basket of greenhouse gases both direct and indirect scopes for reporting
Travel – An Important Source! Replacing a 60W bulb for energy efficient: saves ~ 80 kgCO 2 a year Single flight EDI – LHR: releases ~ 80 kgCO 2 per passenger =
Transport Scotland Travel Plan First carbon-focussed Travel Plan Aspiration: To measure, monitor and minimise the greenhouse gas emissions arising from travel of TS employees Ethos: The greenest mile is the mile not travelled Travel Carbon Footprint used to set targets and actions Targets are purely carbon savings Actions are defined to achieve the biggest carbon savings –35,000 kgCO 2 reduction over two years
Footprinting Example: The Commute Undertook staff travel survey November 2006 Established journey details for each staff member Established the carbon emission arising Multiplied journeys to reflect annual impact Mode Split CO 2 Split
The Future Monitoring Strategy: annual surveys and footprint Evolution of Actions and Targets Annual Reporting Business unit carbon challenge? Individual carbon challenge? TS influence over TPs requested through development planning
Yearly Emissions from Travel Information A new carbon footprinting tool for Travel Plans www.smarterchoices.co.uk
YETI Yearly Emissions from Travel Information Freely available for anyone to use Simple registration, with online toolkit or JMP support Fully automates the carbon footprinting process For commute, travel surveys are completed online For business travel, data files uploaded Reports show breakdown of CO 2 (or £!) by: Mode Common journey Individual …?