We think you have liked this presentation. If you wish to download it, please recommend it to your friends in any social system. Share buttons are a little bit lower. Thank you!
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published bySamantha Payne
Modified over 2 years ago
ENSEMBLES – Progress Report WP6.2 meeting, Helsinki Chris Hewitt, Met Office Hadley Centre, April 2007 Project Office can be contacted on Web site is
Page 2© Crown copyright 2007 Strategic Objectives 1.Develop an ensemble prediction system based on global and regional Earth System models, validated against observations and analyses, to produce a probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales 1.Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System 2.Exploit the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance
Page 3© Crown copyright 2007 Research Themes (RTs) summary System development and assembly Model engine: hindcasts, climate integrations Understanding, evaluation Impacts, Scenarios and policy
Page 4© Crown copyright 2007 Progress: GCM seasonal to decadal Three different seasonal to decadal forecast systems to estimate model uncertainty: Multi-model system for s2d forecasts installed at ECMWF built from EUROSIP operational activities and DEMETER experience Perturbed parameter system, built from the decadal prediction system (DePreSys) at the Met Office Stochastic physics system, from the CASBS system developed for medium-range forecasting at ECMWF Design of a set of common experiments to determine the benefits of each approach. All show promising aspects. Improved ocean data assimilation systems for s2d prediction
Page 5© Crown copyright 2007 Progress: GCM centennial Multi-model ACC simulations (IPCC 4AR) Conducted historical runs ( ) and scenario runs (IPCC A1B, A2, B1) including Hadley Centre perturbed parameter runs, maybe other GCMs
Page 6© Crown copyright 2007 Progress: regional modelling GCMs DRAFT – TO BE FINALISED RCMs METO- HC MPIMETCNRMDMIETHKNMIICTPSMHIUCLMC4IGKSSMetNoCHMI METO- HC MPIME T FUB IPSL CNRM NERSC Defined RCM domain ERA40 hindcats ( ) at 50km resolution: 11 completed, 7 already in the central archive ERA40 runs at 25km resolution underway Matrix of driving GCMs/RCMs devised 0.22º (25km) grid mesh (courtesy of Burkhardt Rockel)
Page 7© Crown copyright 2007 Progress (continued) Scientific analyses (e.g. cloud feedbacks, carbon, sea-ice, …) Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios (including provision of interim pdfs from PPE to RT6) Publicly available Climate Explorer further developed as integrated diagnostic tool Producing daily gridded datasets for Europe (on same grid as RCMs), particularly for evaluating extremes New emissions scenario developed (A1B baseline, stabilise to 450ppmv CO 2 eq) OLD (ECA daily dataset) NEW
Page 8© Crown copyright 2007 Progress (continued) Editable publications page available, hosted by UREADMMUREADMM Publications of ENSEMBLES results starting to appear in journals. ENSEMBLES Technical Reports series created Need to increase the publicity of the results of the project Participation at international meetings: EGU, AGU, EMS, ESSP, side- events at COP/MOP, joint meetings with WHO and OECD West Africa to be the non-European RCM domain later in project We are developing links with other projects and programmes (e.g. AMMA, ADAM, CECILIA, CIRCE, CLAVIER, DYNAMITE, Euro-Limpacs, GMES, MERSEA, QUANTIFY, WMO/WCRP mainly CLIVAR and GEWEX) Our General Assembly is growing in popularity, internally and externally. GA2007 in Prague, November Expanding the affiliated partners (16 currently, more requested)
Page 9© Crown copyright 2007 Affiliated partners 1.FAO, Rene Gommes, RT5&6 2.WHO, Bettine Menne, RT5 3.University of Zurich, Nadine Salzmann, RT6 4.ESSC, John Christy, RT5 5.Dept. Geography, Nat. Univ. of Ireland, Kieran Hickey, RT5 6.NCAR, Guy Brasseur, Jerry Meehl, Linda Mearns, RT2A&2B 7.FRGCG, Michio Kawamiya, RT1&2A 8.CCSR (University of Tokyo), Masahide Kimoto, RT4 9.Nat. Inst. Earth Sciences, Toru Nozawa/Seita Emori, RT2A 10.SINTEF Energy Research, Atle Harby, RT6 11.University of Copenhagen, Eigil Kaas, RT2A 12.University of Exeter, David Stephenson, RT4 (&5?) 13.Nat. Acad. Of Scientists of Ukraine, Alexander Palonski, RT6 14.University of Newcastle, Hayley Fowler 15.OURANOS Climate Analysis group, Daniel Caya/Diane Chaumont, RT2B 16.Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics Network (CRCMD), Colin Jones
Page 10© Crown copyright 2007 Stream 2 simulations – GCMs s2d hindcasts 1960 onwards (previously ) Hindcasts underway. Expected completion Aug08 Models: IFS/HOPE (ECMWF), ARPEGE/OPA (CNRM and CERFACS), HadGEM1a and DePreSys (METO-HC), ECHAM/OM1 (IfM-GEOMAR), INGV historical simulations and 21 st Century scenarios using updated models and E1 (previously A1B, A2, B1) Spin-up of control runs underway 20 th C historical simulations by Aug07, may be 3 months later 21 st C scenarios expected Aug08 HadCM3CMPIMET CNRS-IPSL Models: DKCM (DMI), HadGEM2-AO and HadCM3C (METO-HC), MPIMET, EGMAM (FUB), CNRM, CNRS-IPSL
Page 11© Crown copyright 2007 Stream 2 simulations – RCMs ERA40 hindcasts ( ) at 25km. Most in data archive, aiming for all by June /2100 (A1B and different driving GCMs) at 25km Due Aug07, may be 4 months later Models: METO-HC, SMHI, MPIMET, ICTP, CNRM, ETH, DMI, UCLM, KNMI, C4I, GKSS, CHMI/CUNI, Met.no RT3 RCM system developed, for use in RT2B by end April 07 Weighting of members of RCM ensembles, due Aug07 Recommendations and guidance on methods for construction of probabilistic regional climate scenarios by Feb08 Assessment of robustness of sds techniques using GCM and RCM output by Feb08
Page 12© Crown copyright 2007 Plans for 2007 Develop data archives ECMWF building on DEMETER database DMI building on PRUDENCE database MPIMET (http://ensembles.wdc-climate.de) building on IPCC WCDC activities Daily gridded dataset for surface climate variables for Europe, due Aug 07 Develop impacts models (e.g. crops, water resources, energy) Develop statistical downscaling tools Improved estimates for changes in extreme events Workshops (Joint ENSEMBLES/CLIVAR workshop; 5 th Study Conference on BALTEX)
Page 13© Crown copyright 2007 Further develop links with CLIVAR: joint workshop with Task Force on Seasonal Prediction, June 2007 discussions with WGCM Further develop links with other WCRP projects: joint workshop with CFMIP, April 2007 GEWEX, e.g. joint involvement in BALTEX conference, June 2007 Develop links with other EC projects (e.g. AMMA joint workshop, Feb07) ENSEMBLES General Assemblies are now attracting other groups Outreach plans
Page 14© Crown copyright 2007 Concluding remarks – innovative work Brings together largely separate communities and integrates world- leading European research: s2d, anthropogenic climate change, global modellers, regional modellers (dynamical and statistical downscaling), scientific understanding, evaluation with observations, application modellers to deliver climate impacts, emission scenario developers, training programmes Multi-disciplinary approach allows exchange of knowledge, ideas and techniques – for example extensive work on extremes Multi-model ensemble-based probability approach will quantify uncertainty, increase understanding, influence the development of the next generation of models, leading to uncertainty reduction in the future Examples of new products: multi-model RCM system at 25km resolution probabilistic methods for use for GCMs, RCMs, impact models probabilistic predictions from s2d2c timescales to explore impacts gridded observations for Europe with estimate of uncertainty public availability of large datasets developments to the publicly available Climate Explorer on-line tools for users to downscale Ensembles simulations
Page 15© Crown copyright 2007 Questions
Research Theme RT2A: Production of seasonal to decadal hindcasts and climate change scenarios (Model Engine Part 1) RT Leaders: Guy Brasseur (MPIMET, Hamburg)
1 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts.
RT2B: Making climate model projections usable for impact assessment Clare Goodess ENSEMBLES WP6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26 April 2007.
MedCLIVAR workshop Climate Change Modeling for the Mediterranean region 13-15/10/08, ICTP, Trieste (IT). Convenors: F. Giorgi, E.Coppola, P.Lionello, M.Zampieri.
International efforts in Climate Modeling Projections, Predictions and Downscaling Coordinated by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) CMIP5: The.
ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, November 2007 Potential WP Participants (known absentees underlined): DJF, DISAT, FMI, FUB, LUND,
RT1 Development of the Ensemble Prediction System Aim Build and test an ensemble prediction system based on global Earth System models developed in Europe,
Africa Adaptation Programme NMS requirements for GFCS related research and capacity development Joseph D. Intsiful Data and information Management Expert.
RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg September 2004 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Meeting Hamburg - September 2004 RT6 Assessments of impacts of climate change Andy Morse,
Seasonal forecasting: status and plans David Anderson Tim Stockdale, Magdalena Balmasda, Arthur Vidard, Alberto Troccoli, Paco Doblas-Reyes, Kristian Morgensen,
RT4: Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events Coordinators: UREADMM.
SPARC Themes Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) A Core Project of the World Climate Research Programme Co-Chairs: Ted Shepherd and.
World Climate Research Programme: Issues of interest for WWRP Vladimir Ryabinin (on behalf of the WCRP Joint Planning Staff) The major objectives of the.
WWRP 1 October 2010 THORPEX report to the WGNE David Burridge THORPEX IPO.
Using Better Climate Prediction in the Implementation of NAPs – (Eastern) Europe Vesselin Alexandrov Arusha, 2006 Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Institute.
EC Research in the field of climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation (an update) Wolfram Schrimpf Deputy Head of Unit Climate Change & Natural.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 Seasonal forecasting activities at the Met Office Long-range Forecasting Group, Hadley Centre Presenter: Richard Graham ECMWF.
© UKCIP 2006 UKCIP08 What to expect from the next set of climate change scenarios Richard Lamb UK Climate Impacts Programme.
Status of research SB June 2004 Xiaosu Dai, Michel den Elzen, Niklas Höhne.
© Crown copyright 2006Page 1 The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Progress and future plans Mark Webb (Hadley Centre) and CFMIP contributors.
Credibility of Climate Model Projections of Future Climate: Issues and Challenges Linda O. Mearns National Center for Atmospheric Research SAMSI
World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO OMM WMO Climate & Water Department Climate Applications.
1 ENSEMBLES 3. GA 2006, Lund – WP 6.2 Meeting 20th Nov RT6, WP 6.2 Meeting Estimates of Windstorm induced Loss in Europe ENSEMBLES GA 2006 – 20th Nov –
ESA Climate Change Initiative Climate Modelling User Group CMUG
GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 1 GEMS:Global Earth-system Monitoring.
Climate Adaptation Science Investigator (CASI) Working Group: Key Activities and Objectives at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Molly E Brown 1, Cynthia.
1 Joint Frequency Distributions for Future European Climate Change Glen Harris, Ben Booth, Kate Brown, Mat Collins, James Murphy, David Sexton, Mark Webb.
World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO OMM WMO Climate & Water Department Global Framework for.
1st meeting ECDS Scientific Advisory Board and 10th meeting ECDS Board Climate change data and information needs and relevant EEA activities André Jol.
WWRP 1 The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Long Term Plan including the development of Regional Environmental Prediction Systems Gilbert Brunet.
© 2016 SlidePlayer.com Inc. All rights reserved.