1. EPAs New Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Model: Applying technology to support the Presidents climate change initiative 2010 Environmental Information Symposium Steve Ziegler May 12, 2010

2. 2 Agenda Challenge Model Results Oil crisis CAFE standard 1970s EPA CAA Tier 1 CA Low Emission Vehicle 1990s EPA CAA Tier 2 CA sues EPA 2000s EPA estimated mileage Phase out leaded gasoline 1980s

3. 3 Challenge Different standards Fuel economy vs. emissions State vs. Federal Pollutant Emissions GHG Emissions Corporate Average Fuel Economy CA & Others: Pollutant Emissions GHG Emissions

4. 4 Presidential Initiative May 2009 – President Obama announces tighter fuel efficiency standards Priority public policy initiative Push for new national standard Fuel economy & GHG emissions 31% Mobile Sources U.S. GHG Emissions In 2007

5. 5 Team Office of Transportation and Air Quality Policy Subject matter expertise Model approach Inputs and post processing ICF Expertise in CAFE and fuel consumption modeling Model approach Model development

6. 6 Model Overview OMEGA.NET Desktop Model Optimization Model for reducing Emissions of Greenhouse gases from Automobiles (OMEGA) ScenarioMarketTechnologyFuelsReference Various output files and formats txt

7. 7 Manufacturer #1 Model Approach – Technology Selection 295 Manufacturer #2 CO2 (g/mi) 347 CO2 (g/mi) Technologies 1 FLAT 2 Pumping 3 Hybrid 4 Plug-in … $ $ $$ $$$ 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 267 281 243 250

8. 8 Model Approach – Changes In Fuel Manufacturer #1 295 Manufacturer #2 CO2 (g/mi) 347 CO2 (g/mi) 267 281 243 250 Gasoline Diesel Electricity GGGGGGGDGDDDDGG +

9. 9 Model – Selection Logic TARF – Technology Application Rating Factor Choose the least expensive technology Choose the most cost effective (most CO2 reduction for the least expense) based on the consumers estimated actual mileage Choose the most cost effective (most CO2 reduction for the least expense) based on EPA mileage estimates

10. 10 Results National program 2012-2016 Average 250 CO2 (g/mi) / 35.5 MPG by 2016 Automakers have clear, standardized targets Estimated $1,100 increase in vehicle price Estimated $3,000 in fuel savings during the vehicle lifetime A supposedly unsolvable problem was solved by unprecedented partnerships. – Lisa P. Jackson, EPA "At the end of the day, what's most important is that we have a single, national standard that is achievable, but that is aggressive and cost-effective." - Charles Territo, Auto Alliance This program lessons our dependence on oil and is good for America and good for the planet. – Ray LaHood, DOT

11. 11 Results Forecasted benefits (2012-2016) 960M metric tons of CO2 1.8B barrels of oil EPA was able to play leadership role in driving a priority public policy initiative Saving annual electricity for 117M homes Preserving 9M acres of forest from deforestation Removing annual emissions from 249 coal power plants