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Test data set 1 50,000 iterations run starting points chosen from eyeballing and fiddling with data and guessing at a good fit. relatively poor mixing.

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Presentation on theme: "Test data set 1 50,000 iterations run starting points chosen from eyeballing and fiddling with data and guessing at a good fit. relatively poor mixing."— Presentation transcript:

1 test data set 1 50,000 iterations run starting points chosen from eyeballing and fiddling with data and guessing at a good fit. relatively poor mixing (parameter draws made independently despite known correlations) burn-in: 10,000

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8 95% credible intervals: Vbak: K: P: chi: e: omega:

9 test data set 2 10,000 iterations run (this morning!--not enough time for more.) starting points chosen from eyeballing and fiddling with data and guessing at a good fit. relatively poor mixing (parameter draws made independently despite known correlations) no convergence at all, so no distributions drawn or intervals constructed

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