1. Integrating climate change considerations into sustainable development and poverty alleviation Inger Andersen, Director Sustainable Development Department Middle East and North Africa Region The World Bank

2. 2 Climate Change Impacts on Africa and Mediterranean

3. Climate changes over the last 100 years.. Less rainfall in the Sahel More rainfall in East Africa Africa has warmed on average 0.5 degree C over last century Six warmest years on record have all occurred since 1987

4. 4 …and those projected for the future Percent change in run-off: multi-model average for the winter and summer precipitation (A1B SRES scenario) Punch line: by 2050, reductions of by 20 to 30% in northern, western and southern Africa; most of MENA by 2050; increases of 30-40% in eastern Africa Source: Milly et al (2005), published in Nature

5. Ecosystems and Agriculture Productivity Could Be Severely Impacted Reduction in soil fertility Decreased livestock productivity Increased incidence of pest attacks Shifts and changes in lengths of growing seasons  Agriculture contributes about 20-70% of GDP and 70-80% employment  Each 1ºC rise in average temperature will reduce dryland farm profits in Africa by nearly 10%.

6. 6 Natural Disasters are on the rise… Increase in the annual frequency of large-scale disaster events in Africa since 1985 Distribution of Disasters in SSA Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

7. 7 … and are expected to increase further Punch line: between 6 and 25 million people will be exposed to coastal flooding in North Africa under a temperature increase of between 1 -3 degrees Source: Stern report background paper

8. 8 The energy and mitigation agenda in the region

9. 9 Energy access is crucial for growth in Africa Only 24% access to electricity 28/48 SSA African countries affected by energy crisis Source: World Bank

10. 10 Region’s GHG contributions: far less than its population share

11. 11 What is the World Bank doing to help on adaptation and mitigation

12. 12 Integrating adaptation into investment lending WB lending in climate-sensitive sectors has averaged $3 billion per year; preliminary estimates for the MENA region suggest that 20-30% of that will help countries increase climate change resilience

13. 13 Energy Sector: promoting the access and low carbon agenda Over the last 5 FYs, the World Bank has financed projects worth $2.8 billion in the region (71% of the total) to expand access to modern energy and promote low carbon sector development Source: World Bank (2007), Clean energy for development Investment framework: Making a difference on climate change - Progress report

14. 14 Land Use/Forestry Hydro Landfills/ Compost Energy efficiency Other renewable ERPA Signed 36 World Bank Projects in Portfolio/ Pipeline 2 6 14 9 5 Total 36 2 2 4 6 4 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 Promoting carbon markets in the region Region Carbon Finance Project Status – July 2007

15. 15 Knowledge generation – Some Regional Level Initiatives Water resources (2-year program) –River basin focus (Lake Victoria, Eastern Nile, Senegal, Niger, Congo, and Zambezi) –Knowledge base, climate risk management guidance, awareness building) Sustainable land management (Through TerrAfrica) –Country climate baseline information at relevant scales –Guidance for climate proofing and risk management in SLM Investments –Development and coordination of inter-agency round table on climate proofing SLM Energy efficiency –Study in North Africa and Middle East to assess benefits of improved energy efficiency and viable policy options

16. 16 Country level analytical work: some examples Morocco: water, agriculture, urban development Yemen, Djibouti: water, agriculture, urban Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia: Managing environmental risk Madagascar: Adaptation and Risk management Burkina Faso: Community Based Rural Development

17. 17 Morocco: downscaling climate models will help develop better estimates of impacts on agriculture Note: projections obtained through statistical downscaling of HadCM3, B2 SRES scenario

18. 18 Project Example: Project Example: Climate and Disaster Risk Management Madagascar Hydro-meteorological risk assessment for agriculture Cyclone impact modeling Rice agro-climatic modeling Updating of infrastructure norms and standards Vulnerability analysis for drought-prone South Analysis of historical and projected climate change Technical assistance and capacity building for local entities

19. 19 Country example: Morocco, water sector WB is working with the government on policy, analysis and investments to reduce climate change impacts Plan water storage, transfer investments for expected future rainfall and demand patterns. Renewed emphasis on water allocation within safe consumption limits Affordable water services for growing municipal demand. Highest impact investments in wastewater collection and treatment Bring ag water use to sustainable levels. Use new technologies to increase $/drop and compensate farmers for reduced consumption. Emphasis on public communication Ensure some in-stream flows, planned aquifer drawdown or management, and manage wastewater discharge

20. 20 Improving the policy and incentive framework Public sector policies and incentives necessary to: –Reduce regulatory uncertainty and mitigate regulatory risks (e.g., in carbon finance) –Expand equity and debt capital for projects with high investment costs and long lead times –Advance R&D Public Finance Management to improve both allocation and efficiency Policy framework (e.g. water, urban, agriculture) can help enhance resilience by providing incentives to diversify away from vulnerable sectors, locations

21. 21 Concluding messages 1.We need to act –Climate action is critical for development – we can no longer fight poverty without addressing climate change in core development activities –Adaptation in Africa could cost 5-10% of GDP, but is still likely to be less than the cost of inaction 2.We need to improve knowledge –On impacts, to prioritize action –On adaptation options, to optimize funds 3.We need to scale up efforts –Adaptation needs exceed current resource flows to Africa –Development partners need to help upscale concessional/grant funding –Private sector can play important role –Policies can help reduce vulnerability 4.World Bank is ready to help on all fronts