1. The next big earthquake at SFO (coming soon) Tom Brocher USGS, Coordinator, NC Earthquake Hazard Investigations http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ M7 1868 Hayward quake

2. Example from M5.4 Alum Rock earthquake on the Calaveras Fault Recent M5.6 earthquake on the Calaveras Fault- this was only a moderate size quake - it wasn’t the Big One! ~64,000 responses to Did You Feel It?

3. 45 seconds of strong shaking The really big one (M7.8)!

4. Almost none of the San Francisco Peninsula was developed in 1906 San Mateo Millbrae S. San Francisco Daly City S. F. Palo Alto Redwood City Half Moon Bay Belmont Pacifica

5. 27% 21% 10% 11% 4% 3% In the next 30 years there is a 62%, nearly 2 in 3 chance, of a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake in the greater Bay Area. Hazard is highest in the East Bay due to the larger number of faults there, and due to the Hayward Fault, which has a high hazard. SEVEN DEADLY FAULTS

7. Ground shaking levels from the 1906 quake USGS, 2005

8. 1989 Loma Prieta 1906 quake Loma Prieta was NOT the big one for Millbrae! 30 Loma Prieta Earthquakes = 1906 Earthquake San Mateo Millbrae

10. 1868 Hayward Earthquake “the great San Francisco earthquake” Shaking intensities were strong from San Leandro south through Hayward towards Alvarado They were weaker in Oakland and Mission San Jose

11. SFO

12. M6.7 to M7 1868 Hayward earthquake 30 fatalities, 5 in San Francisco (12th most deadly US earthquake) $350,000 in damage in San Francisco alone Extensive damage in San Leandro, Hayward, and Fremont

13. Bancroft Library Haywards Hotel Edmunson Warehouse Hayward was heavily damaged by the 1868 earthquake. “Practically not a house was left on its foundations…” “Many buildings were much damaged.” (Lawson Report, 1908).

15. Bancroft Library Reinstein Clothing Factory, 314 California St. Settlement

16. Will Cause the Most Damage

17. Apartments over a garage: Soft- story, corner building collapse (Marina) House over a garage: Soft- story collapse Santa Cruz Mountains 1989

18. Communications will be lost KGO Radio Towers M6.9 1989 Loma Prieta quake Cellphones won’t work (didn’t work last month) Built 1937

19. The local geology makes a huge difference in how the ground shakes. Loma Prieta recordings from 1989.

21. Water and gas mains broken 1906 quake

22. USGS OFR 2006-1037 SFO Port of SF I-280 101 92 San Andreas Fault

23. A recent USGS map ?? ? ? ? SAF HF

24. 1989 Favorable Fire Conditions Marina fire

25. Part of San Francisco burned in 1906

26. Lifelines/Infrastructure

28. Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country Secure your family and your residence. A guide for preparing for the next big quake.

30. ShakeMap Was available 15 minutes after the earthquake. Useful for recovery assessment.

31. Example from M5.4 Alum Rock earthquake on the Calaveras Fault Recent M5.6 earthquake on the Calaveras Fault- this was only a moderate size quake - it wasn’t the Big One! ~64,000 responses to Did You Feel It?

32. http://1868alliance.org/ Promote earthquake awareness Promote earthquake preparedness Remember our earthquake history Join Us!!!