2. Visualizing the Science of Climate Change Brian Martin Peter Mahaffy

3. What do all of these images have in common?

4. Acknowledments

5. Jasper, Alberta

7. UN Decade for Education for Sustainable Development (2005-2014) Improve the quality of life for this and future generations, in a way that respects the planet we live on. To do this we must learn constantly. Challenge individuals, institutions and societies to view tomorrow as a day that belongs to all of us, or it will not belong to anyone.

8. Global Climate Change The atmosphere of our planet What is climate & is it changing? Causes of change Short and long term effects How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

9. Different Regions of Earth’s Atmosphere Exosphere Thermosphere Mesosphere Stratosphere Troposphere w clouds @ top Stratosphere Space Shuttle Discovery 1995. Sunrise over West Indies

11. Temperature Profile of Earth’s Atmosphere Temperature of atmosphere controlled by 4 factors –Absorption of energy from the sun. –Heat production in interior of the earth. –Loss of energy by emission from the earth as a blackbody radiator. –Chemistry and photochemistry also play a role – especially: Infrared absorption by gases in troposphere Oxygen / ozone photochemistry in stratosphere

12. Global Climate Change The atmosphere of our planet What is climate & is it changing? Causes of change Short and long term effects How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

13. What is ‘Climate’? Climate is ‘average weather’ - and its variability - for a particular region - over a period of time Includes many different elements (Environment Canada – Edmonton)

14. What is ‘climate change’? Climate change is a shift in ‘climate’ relative to a given reference time period It is caused by: Natural factors - Solar variability - Volcanic dust levels - Internal variability - Geological change - Greenhouse gases - Aerosols - Ozone depletion - Land use change Human factors (Environment Canada – Edmonton)

15. Climate Change – A New Idea? 1827: Fourier – theorized that greenhouse gases warm the planet 1896: Arrhenius - proposed that changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations due to volcanic eruptions and the combustion of coal can cause climate change 1938: Callendar – first noted that human emissions of CO 2 may add significantly to natural concentrations in the atmosphere 1957: Revelle et al. – first warned that human emissions have started a global scale geophysical experiment and initiated an atmospheric CO 2 concentration monitoring program Environment Canada

16. Is Climate Changing? Focus First on Mean Global Surface Temperature

17. “Humanity is conducting an unintended, uncontrolled, globally pervasive experiment whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a global nuclear war.” World Conference on The Changing Atmosphere: Toronto, June 1988

18. Chemistry in Context

19. WHO – from International Panel on Climate Change

20. Global Climate Change The atmosphere of our planet What is climate & is it changing? Causes of change Short and long term effects How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

21. How is Heat Trapped? Chemistry In Context

22. Wavelength Distribution of Solar Radiation ? Chemistry in Context

23. 6000 K 255 K Wavelength Distribution (non-linear scale)

24. Interaction of Electromagnetic Radiation with Molecules

25. Key Players - A Closer Look Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide CFCs and HCFCs Water ! Aerosols Solar activity

26. Carbon Dioxide – Mechanism for Tropospheric Warming ?

27. Source: OSTP Carbon Dioxide Concentration Trends

28. Chemistry in Context

29. [CO 2 ] and Temperature – Correlation?

30. Per capita CO 2 emissions – Global Wikimedia Commons

32. Photomicrograph of calcareous ooze www.soc.soton.ac.uk/.../photomicrographs/ BNFC-44PB_full.jpg

36. Methane by Sector - Canada Residence time -12 years Global Warming Potential - 23

38. Clathrates (methane hydrates) - Runaway Greenhouse Effect?

39. Geomar Research Centre

40. Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O) by Sector - Canada Residence time - 120 years ! Global Warming Potential – 296 !

42. Harvey was a dentist, But now his career is through, 'Cause what he thought was N 2 O Was really NO 2

43. CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs

44. “Super” Greenhouse Gases 100 year mass normalized global warming potential of 18,000 Relative to carbon dioxide

45. Terraform Mars with Super Greenhouse Gases? Proceedings of Natl Academy of Sciences, Feb 2001

47. Aerosols

49. The Bottom Line?

50. Cautious Increasing Confidence The International Panel on Climate Change is the principal source of sound advice on climate change science 1990 1992 1995 1997 2001 First Report Second Report Third Report

51. The IPCC progression in confidence FAR: "Our judgment is that the size of [global] warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability“ SAR: "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.“ TAR: "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities."

52. Joint statement by Academies of Science from 17 other countries – May 2001 “The work of the…IPCC represents the consensus of the international science community on climate change science. We recognize IPCC as the world’s most reliable source of information…and endorse its method of achieving this consensus.”

53. IPCC 3rd Assessment Report, 2001

54. Global Climate Change The atmosphere of our planet What is climate & is it changing? Causes of change Short and long term effects How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

55. The IPCC Third Assessment Report The IPCC TAR (2001) was a peer-reviewed publication, the result of the work of hundreds of leading climate scientists and modellers. A Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) was also released, which –Developed 4 major scenario families of possible future emissions of the major greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, CFCs, HFCs, etc…) Our models use EdGCM – based on a NASA/ GISS Global Climate Model

56. Special Report on Emissions (SRES) Scenarios

57. Some glimpses at Global Climate Change … Historical data Models run at TKUC –TemperatureTemperature –Snow and Ice coverSnow and Ice cover –PrecipitationPrecipitation What are Greenhouse gases and how do they work? –CFC-sCFC-s –CO2CO2 Can YOU do anything about this?

58. What is Science Alberta Foundation? Not-for-profit raising science and math awareness Celebrating 15 years in Alberta Foster enthusiasm and interest Nurture the development of leaders and workers Inspiring Minds. Changing Futures.

59. Science-In-A-Crate Inspiring Minds. Changing Futures. Curriculum specific programs developed for educators by educators with students, and content experts Challenging, hands-on activities that help make math relevant in our everyday lives Activities that encourage students to explore scientific understandings from different perspectives incorporating a variety of learning styles

60. Book A Crate Inspiring Minds. Changing Futures. On-line booking $25 for 3 week rental All materials Shipped to your door Picked up at your door www.sciencealberta.org

61. New Science 10 Crate Energy Flow in Global Systems Inspiring Minds. Changing Futures. Activity Specifics: 1. Visualization tool to explore past and future climate change (laptop computer included) 2. Exploration of greenhouse gases and mechanism of effects 3. Interactive, physical model to explore effects of seasons on earth

62. Inspiring Minds. Changing Futures. Activity Specifics (con’t) 4. Exploration of past climate and weather, investigate ice cores and tree cores 5. Board game to explore carbon cycle, balance between sinks and sources 6. Differences between effects of UV depletion and increases in greenhouse gases 7. Explore and manipulate effects of climate change on biomes and distribution of organisms

63. “View tomorrow as a day that belongs to all of us, or it will not belong to anyone…” UN Decade for Education for Sustainable Development

65. Chemistry in Context Kilimanjaro 1912 2001 - 82 % of ice field gone Snow cover gone by2015?

67. What Industry is Most Concerned About Climate Change?

70. Connections? - Ozone depletion & Climate Change Ozone Depletion Stratosphere UV region of spectrum Cl atom chemistry Ozone hole a separate phenomenon Climate Change Troposphere IR region of spectrum Various “greenhouse gases”

71. Connections? Ozone Depletion / Climate Change Some potent ozone depletors (CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs) are also potent greenhouse gases because they absorb in the “window” and are long lived. Ironically, an increase in greenhouse gases is predicted to cause a cooling of the stratosphere, slowing down the O 3 depleting reactions...

72. Global Climate Change The atmosphere of our planet What is climate & is it changing? Causes of change Short and long term effects How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?

73. Range of IPCC Model Predictions

75. “If you were unkind enough to put a frog into boiling water, he would jump out if able to do so. If you were to put him into cold water and then gradually heat up the water, you would end up with frog soup.” Sir Crispin Tickell, Ambassador to the UN from Great Britain FROG SOUP?

76. 100th Anniversary of Nobel Prize 100 Nobel Laureates Speak Out... “The most profound danger to world peace in the coming years will stem not from the irrational acts of states or individuals but from the legitimate demands of the worlds dispossessed. Of these poor and disenfranchised, the majority live a marginal existence in equatorial climates. Global warming, not of their making but originating with the wealthy few, will affect their fragile economies most. Their situation will be desperate and manifestly unjust.

77. It cannot be expected, therefore, that in all cases they will be content to await the beneficence of the rich. If then we permit the devastating power of modern weaponry to spread through this combustible human landscape, we invite a conflagration that can engulf both rich and poor. The only hope for the future lies in cooperative international action, legitimized by democracy. It is time to turn our backs on the unilateral search for security, in which we seek to shelter behind walls. Instead, we must persist in the quest for united action to counter both global warming and a weaponized world.”

78. Precautionary Principle? “Maybe we should take the example of the Iroquois Nation, who require its tribal councils to formally consider the impact of their decisions to the seventh generation into the future, or about 150 years. This is about the residence time of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.” Shayne Janzen, King’s student - Brief to Climate Change Central

79. Control

80. Sunspot Numbers – NASA MSFC

81. The IPCC process for providing science advice Selection of lead authors –based on internationally recognized expertise Assessment based on published literature – invited contributions from other experts Contents peer reviewed twice –Second draft also reviewed by governments Final contents are responsibility of lead authors –accepted (not approved) by IPCC SPM developed and approved collaboratively by IPCC and lead authors 2001 WGI report involved 1078 experts