1. 1 Electrical Grid Exercises https://drupal2.cs.sunyit.edu/sustainability/

2. 2 Background of Exercise Part of SUNY, NYSERDA and NSF Projects Put learning science in a real world context –Interdisciplinary approach –Make experimentation possible and repetition meaningful – Be able to answer the questions What is interdisciplinary approach and how can it help solve real world problems How can my knowledge be used in the real world and lead to meaningful employment –Project VideoProject Video

3. 3 Smart Grid Background Three major components make up any electrical grid: – Power generation, –Long distant transmission and – Distribution to customers To effectively create and manage the electrical grid information on the environment is crucial. Doing this using modern information and communication technologies in realtime is term the Smart Grid To create the grid (power plants, transmission, load planning) knowledge of the environment factors, climatology and GIS is extremely important In real time grid management there needs to be a constant flow of information to aid in verifying the current load and power production and forecasts to prediction future electrical demand, transmission ability and production rates. Renewables make this much more challenging. Many new opportunities in this field for qualified and prepared environmental scientist, meteorologists and engineers. – ~70% of the engineers and scientist supporting our electrical grid are now at or near retirement age –One of my SUNYIT engineering students said she obtained a job with National Grid because of the insights she gained into how renewable energy fits into the Smart Grid management form working on this exercise.

4. Renewables and the Electrical Grid When a resource reaches 1% of the total electrical production for a grid it must be closely managed. Renewables are sensitive to the weather & the environment, need meteorologist to help support.

5. Renewables and the Electrical Grid Breakout of % within the renewable energy electrical power generation.

6. Renewables and the Electrical Grid If we count hydro as a renewable has actually been down in terms of percent of electricity produced since 1950 2012 Hydro 7.0% Wind 3.2 % Bio 1.3 % GeoT 0.4 % Solar 0.2 % 1982 Hydro 15.0 % Other < 1.0 % 1950 Hydro 30.0 %

7. Electrical Grid and Wind Note that that wind has show an exponential growth in the US over the past 10 years.

8. Electrical Grid and Solar Solar has show an exponential growth in the US over the past 10 years.

9. Electrical Grid and Geothermal Geothermal grew exponentially from 1960 - 1994 but has dropped off since then

10. Relative Energy Reserves 16 TW/year 4 TW/year 7 TW/year 50 TW/year Waves/tides 2 TW/year 215 TW 240 TW 200 TW 900 TW

11. Solar power production tends to peaks during mid day and (obviously) no power over night) Wind energy power production tends to peaks at night because of conservation of momentum law and typical location and height of turbines. As the amount of a mixture of solar increases of larger and larger area the variability decrease, thus the predictability of the power coming from the two increases. Renewable Energy Factors Small amount, small area Large amount, large area Power Production Time

12. 12 Electrical Grid Exercise Steps 1. Set up of the Electrical Grid Demand and generation 3. Manage the Grid for next 24 hours Decide on Conventional Power Call up 2. Estimate Weather Impacts Demand and generation 4. Evaluate the Results Demand, generation & weather Link

13. Base Electric Demand of City: 1500 MW/day Power Generation Peak Capacity: – Wind: 12 MW – Solar: 5 MW – Hydro: 15 MW – Nuclear: 26 MW (firm) – Conventional: 80 MW (firm but variable) Other: 1 MW (firm) Planning the Electrical Grid MUST account for environment/climate impacts!

14. Managing the Electrical Grid MUST account for weather impacts!

15. 15 Electrical Grid Planning and Management Exercises Stage 1: Long Term Electrical Grid Planning –Determine demand http://www.hss-1.us/fcst-cent/casestudies/grid-home.htm

16. 16 Electrical Grid Planning and Management Exercises Stage 1: Long Term Electrical Grid Planning –Determine demand –Power generation to meet –Transmission to get power to meet demand http://www.hss-1.us/fcst-cent/casestudies/grid-home.htm

17. 17 Electrical Grid Planning and Management Exercises Stage 1: Long Term Electrical Grid Planning –Determine demand –Power generation to meet –Transmission to get power to the demand http://www.hss-1.us/fcst-cent/casestudies/grid-home.htm

18. 18 Electrical Grid Planning and Management Exercises Stage 1: Long Term Electrical Grid Planning –Determine demand –Power generation to meet –Transmission to get power to the demand http://www.hss-1.us/fcst-cent/casestudies/grid-home.htm Entered steps 1 - 4 of the exercise

19. 19 Electrical Grid Planning and Management Exercises Stage 2: Day to day management weather impacts –Predict weather –Estimate weather impact on demand (load), generation and transmission Done steps 5 - 7 of the exercise Step 8. using "Initial Calculations" and reviewing data on 2 nd page

20. 20 Electrical Grid Planning and Management Exercises Stage 3: Decide conventional power call up Stage 4: Evaluate weather, load, power generation forecasts and conventional power call decision Step 9: Page 2 using "Enter Conventional Power …" and "Final Calculations" Step 10: Done by reviewing data on 3 rd page

21. 21 Electrical Grid Training Exercises Your Case Name

22. 22 1500 Stage 1 Planning

23. 23 12 5 15 Peak Power Generation Capacity Stage 1 Planning

24. 24 26 80 1 Stage 1 Planning

25. 25 Stage 2 Predict Weather Step 6: Make a 24-Hour Weather Forecast for Your Case Study Date: How to make a weather forecast

26. 26 http://www.hss-1.us/sunyit/solarcamp/cases/grid-op/wx-data-maps-grid-op-ex.htm Using Weather Data & Maps Training Case Spring Case Summer Case Fall Case Winter Case Weather Data and Maps for Selected Dates Weather Forecasting Service Training Case Spring Case Summer Case Fall Case Winter Case

27. 27 72 51 5 30 0.00 Stage 2: Day to Day Management Predict Weather

28. 28 Page 2 Stage 2: Day to Day Management Estimate Weather Impacts Load

29. 29 Stage 2: Day to Day Management Estimate Weather Impacts Power Generation

30. 30 Stage 3: Decision on Conventional Power Call-up

31. 31 Stage 4: Evaluation of Results Did you call up enough or too much power? Student tot power fcst = F Non-con + con called up=1537.96 MWh = 1068.96 + 469 = 1537.96 Actual generation (load) needed based upon observed: 1625 MWh Net total power forecast over or under actual power needed:= Student tot power fcst - Actual generation (load) needed 1537.96 - 1625 = -87.0 MWh What Net total power forecast indicates:. This Net total power number is based upon the Student total power forecast as determined by the Student forecast of Non-conventional power, so th value just gives an indication of how good the forecaster was in determining the energy needed to meet the power demand (load). It is better for the number to be smaller, but it doesn’t matter which sign it is because this value does not represent if the power needs were actually met or not. This number could be used as tie breaker. Con generation called up by student: 469 MWh Conventional generation needed: 563.2 MWh CGen needed = Actual -Load - Actual Non-con = 1625 MWh - 1061.76 = 563.24 Conventional over or underproduced: -94.2 MWh 469 MWh - 563.2 MWh = -94.2 MWh What conventional power over or underproduced indicates: This uses the Actual Non-conventional power so it tells us if the student called up enough power to meet the actual community power needs. This is the only number that should be used to determine if the student met the power needs of the community or not.

32. Stage 4: Evaluation of Results Did you call up enough or too much power?

33. Temperature-related Student max temperature: 72 F Observed max temperature: 75 F Student min temperature: 51 F Observed min temperature: 55 F Student average temperature: 61.5 F Observed average temperature: 65 F Student temperature load mod factor: 2.5375 Observed temperature load mod factor: 2.625 Wind-related Student mean wind speed: 5 mph Observed mean wind speed: 4 mph Student wind power factor: 0.125 Observed wind power factor: 0.1 Stage 4: Evaluation of Results Check out the impact of the forecast on the load and power generation Cloud-related Student forecast mean daytime cloud cover: 30% Observed forecast mean daytime cloud cover: 30 % Student solar factor: 0.76 Observed solar factor: 0.76 Precipitation-related Student precipitation: 0.00 inches Observed precipitation: 0 inches Student hydro factor: 0 Observed hydro factor: 1.5 Precipitation-related Student precipitation: inches Observed precipitation: 0.3 inches Student hydro factor: 1 Observed hydro factor: 1

36. Go back an retry entering 564 MWh for the conventional call up, Stage 4: Evaluation of Results Refine your forecast and call up to see if you can improve your results

37. 37 Now Try the Summer, Winter Spring and Fall Cases Goto Case InstructionsCase Instructions Raise hand for help!

38. 38 Wrap Up Questions 1. What is an electrical grid and what are the three major components of any electrical grid? Ans: (1) power generation, (2) long distant transmission (3) distribution to customers. 2. What is the current state of the electrical gird in the US. Ans: It is a mixture of state of the art and very outdated equipment and methods. So although improving, still falls far short of what we would call a "Smart Grid" that uses information and communications technology to gather and act on information from both the energy suppliers and consumers in an automated fashion. 3. What is the current state of renewables in the US and their impact on managing the grid? Ans: Renewables, particularly wind and solar power, which are highly dependent on the weather are increasing rapidly making the need for wind and solar power predictions necessary for effective managing the grid more.

39. 39 Wrap Up Questions 1. What is an electrical grid and what are the three major components of any electrical grid? 2. What is the current state of the electrical gird in the US. 3. What is the current state of renewables in the US and their impact on managing the grid?

40. 40 Wrap Up Questions 4. Which renewable energy is currently the most significant in terms of: a. meeting current demand b. helping meeting demand within the next ten years c. helping meeting demand after ten years

41. 41 Wrap Up Questions 4. Which renewable energy is currently the most significant in terms of: a. meeting current demand Ans: Hydro - largest currently b. helping meeting demand within the next ten years Ans: Wind fastest growing c. helping meeting demand after ten years Ans: greatest capacity for production and distributions (on individual structures) on the long term. 5. What is the relationship of the smart grid and the integration of renewables into the electrical grid as a power generation source. 6. What weather variable did you find had the largest impact on load and what was the general relationship?

42. 42 Wrap Up Questions 4. Which renewable energy is currently the most significant in terms of: a. meeting current demand Ans: Hydro - largest currently b. helping meeting demand within the next ten years Ans: Wind fastest growing c. helping meeting demand after ten years Ans: greatest capacity for production and distributions (on individual structures) on the long term. 5. What is the relationship of the smart grid and the integration of renewables into the electrical grid as a power generation source. Ans: The only way to effectively integrate renewable is to use state-of-the art model, information and communications technologies for the predication and verification of the renewable power generation. 6. What weather variable did you find had the largest impact on load and what was the general relationship? Ans: Temperature, the larger difference the average temperature was from 60 F then larger the load.

43. 43 Wrap Up Questions 7. Which renewable do you think would be most difficult to predict? 8. What did you find was the impact of adding renewable energy generation source in terms of the ability of you to meet your communities energies needs?

44. 44 Wrap Up Questions 7. Which renewable do you think would be most difficult to predict? Ans: Wind and solar power both have their challenges in term of predicting future power generation. The best answer is the difficult in prediction wind versus solar power production is very regional dependent and so the answer to which is more difficult would be dependent on the location and also the skill set of the predicator method. 8. What did you find was the impact of adding renewable energy generation source in terms of the ability of you to meet your communities energies needs? Ans: It typically makes the call-up decisions more challenging, requiring more knowledge and skill on the grid operators part..

45. 45 Wrap Up Questions 9. Can solar power plant generate power under overcasts conditions? 10. What is the relationship between solar power and wind power in terms of time of peak generation?

46. 46 Wrap Up Questions 9. Can solar power plant generate power under overcasts conditions? Ans: Yes, even though in the dead of winter under cloudy skies the amount of solar power is reduced, significant solar energy can still be generated. 10. What is the relationship between solar power and wind power in terms of time of peak generation? Ans: Solar power production tends to peaks during mid day and (obviously) no power over night). Wind energy power production tends to peaks at night because of conservation of momentum law and typical location and height of turbines.

47. 47 Wrap Up Questions 11. How will increasing the amount of wind and solar power over a large area impact the variability and predictability of renewable power generation support a grid.

48. 48 Wrap Up Questions 11. How will increasing the amount of wind and solar power over a large area impact the variability and predictability of renewable power generation support a grid. As the amount of a mixture of solar increases of larger and larger area the variability decrease, thus the predictability of the power coming from the two increases.

49. We have show if price is no object such as space and military operations the technology works - it is a matter of priorities and where should put our development resources/efforts Effort to build solar/wind plans to meet us 80 % demand over next 50 years, about same effort –expended to build all of the major sport stadiums in the US over the past 50 years. –expended in US major motion films – times ten to create major video games over the last 20 years Last Thoughts