1. Adaptation of Biodiversity to Climate Change in southern Africa by: Jenny Cooper CSIR, National Botanical Institute, University of Pretoria & Kruger National Park.

2. 3 Case studies 2. North Eastern Lowveld 1. Succulent Karoo 3. Cape Floral Kingdom

3. Study area  Three case studies –Cape: data rich, diverse, mountains, patchy –Karoo: data poor, geology –‘Kruger’: large mammals and birds

4. Adaptation Options  Five options: –No action –Re-configure parks –Consider alternatives to parks (migration friendly land-uses) –Facilitated migration and dispersal –Ex-situ conservation (e.g. botanical gardens, gene banks and/or zoos)

5. Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan

6. Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan Step 2 Determine: Current knowledge (literature search) Past/present biodiversity management Species distributions

7. Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan Step 2 Determine: Curent knowledge (literature search) Past/present biodiversity management Species distributions Step 3 Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios Determine species environmental envelopes Model species responses (dynamic models)

8. Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan Step 2 Determine: Curent knowledge (literature search) Past/present biodiversity management Species distributions Step 3 Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios Determine species environmental envelopes Model species responses (dynamic models) Step 4 Identify and analyse adaptation options to achieve conservation objectives (economic tools)

9. Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan Step 2 Determine: Curent knowledge (literature search) Past/present biodiversity management Species distributions Step 3 Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios Determine species environmental envelopes Model species responses (dynamic models) Step 4 Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools) Step 5 Synthesis, recommendations and training

10. Research questions to be investigated  What are the economic, social and environmental costs and benefits associated with a range of adaptation options? (MCA)  What are the cost implications if species richness increases/decreases)?  What are the benefits (potential economic returns) of eco-tourism activities? (NE Lowveld)

11. Research questions to be investigated (cont)  What is the most desirable adaptation option/s in each of the study areas? (Investigate the cost-effectiveness of each option)  What is the sensitivity of costs & benefits to changes in species richness?

12. Approach adopted:  Primary objective is to examine ways of reducing vulnerability of biodiversity to CC in the most cost-effective and sustainable means.  From previous phases will have identified vulnerability that is likely and adaptation options which can reduce this vulnerability.  Thus will have a short list of ‘viable’ alternatives, which will then be assessed using MCA to identify most preferable option.

13.  Derivation of marginal cost curves for each adaptation option in the study areas (includes examination of land use efficiency, species representation and irreversibility of species loss).  Collection of eco-tourism stats for the Lowveld area (e.g. tourist numbers visiting the KNP, average tourist expenditure, etc). Approach adopted (cont):

14.  Derivation of marginal benefit curves for eco- tourism in the NE Lowveld area only.  Test the sensitivity of costs and benefits to different levels of species richness (ie: determine the elasticity's associated with different costs and benefits).  Select and justify adaptation options in each of the 3 areas in a manner which is understandable to all stakeholder groups.

15. (No results as yet) Anticipated Problems:  Data availability  Determination of TEV (use and non-use values)  Methodological problems (e.g. defining appropriate discount rate)  Lack of existing economic models unique to each area.

16. Solutions to overcome problems:  Where no data on the extent of land required to achieve the required level of biodiversity conservation is available than the IUCN figure of 10% of total land area will be used.  Use best available data to determine appropriate discount rate.  Undertake sensitivity analysis to establish the impacts of data assumptions.  Generic economic model will be developed and applied to each area.

17. Questions and comments?