1. 1 Nobuo Mimura Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science Ibaraki University/IR3S International Symposium “Cities at Risk” Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Vulnerability

2. Contents of Presentation 1. Global and Regional Picture - Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise 2. Local and Individual Pictures - Mangrove erosion in Thailand - Cyclones in Bangladesh - Tsunami in Maldives - Coastal Protection in Tokyo 3. Challenges

3. 1. Global and Regional Picture –Climate Change and Sea-Level (IPCC AR4, 2007)

4. (IPCC WGI AR4, 2007) Global Mean Sea-Level - 17cm rise for the past 100 yrs - Present speed of SLR is 3.2 mm/yr. - In a long tem, collapse of Greenland ice sheet may induce 2-7m SLR.

5. 5 Temperature Rise (2071~2100)

7. Tropical Cyclones 1949-2007

8. Estimated Typhoon Parameters Maximum Wind Vel. [m/s] ------------ 20 30 40 50 60 17 20 30 40 50 60 Lowest Cent. Press. [hPa] ------------------ 860 880 900 920 940 960 980 1000 860 880 900 920 940 960 980 1000 1013 Lowest Center PressureMaximum Wind Velocity

9. Severity of Typhoon Effect (Hot Spots) Severity Rank １ Rank ２ Rank ３ Rank ４ Rank ５ Rank ６ Rank ７ Rank ８ Rank ９

10. Inundation by Local HWL(Tide)

11. Inundation by Local HWL + SLR 59cm Inundation by Local HWL + SLR 59cm

12. Inundation by Local HWL + SLR 59cm + 100yr Strom Surge Inundation by Local HWL + SLR 59cm + 100yr Strom Surge Asia 362 million people (10.2% of 2000 pop.)

13. Population Growth in Asia

14. Vulnerability of Maga-deltas ・ Several millions more people will be flooded annually. ・ Proactive and planned adaptation is necessary. Extreme: >A million （ by 2050 ） High: 50 K to one million Medium ： 5K to 50 K （ IPCC WGII AR4, 2007 ）

15. Case-1 Erosion of Mangrove in Thailand 2. Individual Pictures

16. Landsat image around river mouth of Chaophraya

19. Erosion at the front

20. Land Subsidence in Bangkok Source:Somkid(2002)

21. Case-2 Tropical Cyclones in Bangladesh

22. DateMax Wind (m/s) Max Wind Radius (km) Storm surge (m) Casualties （ people ） 30 Oct 196057.574 4.57-69.105,179 9 May 196140.864 2.44-3.0511,468 28 May 196355.674 4.27-5.1811,520 11 May 196558.174 3.6619,279 31 May 196544.764 6.10-7.6212,000 23 Oct 196640.364 6-6.67850 12 Nov 197061.774 6.10-9.14500,000 24 Nov 197444.764 2.8-5.2200 9 Nov 198333.364 3.05-4.5711,069? 25 May 198542.564 3.05-4.5711,069? 29 Nov 198844.464 1.52-3.055708 29 Apr 199162.574 6.10-7.62138,000 25 Nov 199558.374 -650 19 May 199755.674 4.6126 26 May 199741.774 3.070 16 May 199845.874 1.83-2.44- History of Cyclone Damages

23. Combining Early Warning System and Hard Measures Cyclone Shelter (Chittagong Port City )

24. Evacuation Road to a Cyclone Shelter

25. Coastal Dike

26. (News Week Japanese 1/12) Case-3 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami - Coastal vulnerability and countermeasures

27. Male Island

28. (Preliminary Report of Survey Team, JSCE, April 2005)

29. 埋め立て地と浸水地域の分布 (Preliminary Report of Survey Team, JSCE, April 2005)

30. Male Island

31. Case-4 Coastal Protection in Tokyo

32. Affected Pop (million) HWL 2.3 HWL+SLR 3.2 HWL+SLR+SS 4.2 Increased Population at Risk in Tokyo

33. History of Flood Damage in Japan Dead/Missing

34. Changes in Death Rate Due to Natural Disaster (1945 ～ 1990) Year Death Rate (Dead/Population)

35. 3. Challenges 1. Asian cities in low-lying deltas will be increasingly at risk. - Impacts of climate change and SLR - Large population growth and development 2. Development policies and city management aim mainly at short-term goals. - Today’s problems - Large portion of today’s investments will be affected by CC/SLR i.e. 10 to 50% of investment to infrastructure such as coastal dikes, loads, bridges, irrigation facilities.

36. 3. How to incorporate the future risk of CC/SLR into today’s management. - Role of adaptation: increase the preparedness with solving today’s problems - Win-Win approach both to present and future problems - Mainstreaming adaptation 4. Major target of adaptation for coastal cities is management of growth. - Impact and vulnerability assessment is the first step. - Regulate migration of population - Incorporate adaptation to CC in to infrastructure construction and city planning

37. Thank you very much!