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IR Magazine Continental Europe Conference The growing importance of Credit Ratings and the Impact of IFRS Vienna, 30 November 2005 Jens Schmidt-Bürgel.

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Presentation on theme: "IR Magazine Continental Europe Conference The growing importance of Credit Ratings and the Impact of IFRS Vienna, 30 November 2005 Jens Schmidt-Bürgel."— Presentation transcript:

1 IR Magazine Continental Europe Conference The growing importance of Credit Ratings and the Impact of IFRS Vienna, 30 November 2005 Jens Schmidt-Bürgel Managing Director Fitch Deutschland

2 Agenda 1 Introduction 2 The Rating Process 3 Impact of IFRS on Ratings 4 Useful Tips

3 Fitch Ratings Only one of the three international Rating Agencies with an European owner Owned by FIMALAC, S.A. Head offices in London and New York Staff of over 1,750 (over 850 Analysts) in 49 offices world-wide Strong Presence in Europe European head office in London with staff of over 450 Offices in Barcelona, Milan, Moscow, Paris und Warsaw Frankfurt Office since 1999 (currently staff of 28)

4 Global Coverage 2.000 Financial Institutions 1.800 Insurance Companies 1.700 Corporates 9.150 Structured Finance Transactions 78.000 Municipalities Transactions 117 Sub-Sovereigns 93 Sovereigns

5 Market Share in Bond Issuance in Europe * Up to 30 September 2005

6 Introduction 1

7 What is a Credit Ratings? An opinion about the ability of an issuer to meet its financial commitments on a timely basis Across sectors Across countries Opinion only on the default probability In case of high yield issuers also opinion on Recovery Rates Does not take into account other risks (fraud etc.) External Support is generally not taken into account Exceptions maybe for subsidiaries and in the case of guarantees Different for financial institutions - Fitch Support Rating

8 Increased Importance of Credit Ratings Diversification of corporate funding Increased capital market funding Innovative capital market transactions Increased disintermediation Banks face continued consolidation and profitability pressures Continued trend to move assets off-balance sheet Introduction of Basle lI Risk adjusted pricing and improved portfolio management Bank and capital market prices should converge

9 Fitch integrated in the leading Bond Indices Merrill Lynch Indices Fitch Ratings included since January 2005 Dominant in global High Yield Segment, strong in GBP & Euro Modifications: Averaging across 3 agencies puts a line of best fit through ratings (new algorithm) Lehman Brothers Indices Fitch Ratings included since July 2005 Dominant in US High Grade Segment and eminent in Euro Modifications: In case of 3 different ratings highest and lowest will be ignored, the medial will be used In case of 2 different ratings the usage of the lowest will be preserved.

10 The Rating Process 2

11 Standard Rating Process Rating Mandate Questionnaire Information Preparation Rating Meeting Rating Publication Rating Report Rating Committee Rating Report Comments IssuerRating Agency Issuer/Rating Agency

12 Corporate Rating Methodology Credit Rating Quantitative Factors Cash-Flow Focus Stability of Earnings Operating Cash-Flow Capital Structure Company Leverage Off Balance Sheet Items Financial Flexibility Capitalisation Financing Sources Qualitative Factors Industry Risk Industry Risk Profile Sector-Ceiling Operating Environment Market Position Diversification Management Strategy / Track Record Risk Appetite

13 Comparison of Ratings European Corporates AAANestlé, Novartis AABP, BASF, E.ON, Siemens ADPWN, RWE, Telekom, VW BBBDaimlerChrysler, LVMH, Metro BBKabel Deutschland, Kamps BJenoptik, Wind US Corporates AAAExxonMobil, Pfizer AAWal-Mart, PepsiCo ACoca-Cola, McDonalds BBBWalt Disney, Ford BB Xerox, Eastman Kodak BGeneral Motors, Levi Strauss

14 Impact of IFRS on Ratings 3

15 Where We are Coming From Lack of consistency Different accounting in each country, need to adjust before start to analyse, UK/US GAAP used as basis by analysts Lack of transparency Profit smoothing Hidden reserves, general reserves, estimated reserves for future costs Hidden gains and losses on securities and other investments Off-balance sheet exposures e.g. derivatives, guarantees, embedded options, pension deficits Accounting volatility pre-IFRS rarely reflects economic volatility

16 Where We are Going IFRS will bring improved financial reporting in terms of Disclosure Consistency Discipline Transition phase 2005-2007 brings new challenges Transition maybe an excuse to hide mistakes of the past Many unconsolidated accounts and some consolidated will remain under local GAAPs Transparency and disclosure are key to getting the right message across Expect gradual blending of local GAAPs and IFRS

17 Accounting Standards - Rated Banks in EMEA Source: Fitch Survey

18 Accounting Standards - Rated Corporates in EMEA Source: Fitch Survey

19 Rating Implications of IFRS Changing accounting standards do not have a direct impact on economic reality and therefore should not affect ratings New information on transition may reveal new aspects of a companys business or financial profile Could lead to some rating actions, but expected to be rare The new standards may have real economic effects Changes to business operations Changes to the cost of funding (e.g. penalty for greater volatility) Change in taxation and change in dividend pay-out Increased transparency and disclosure should provide an improved perception of risk

20 What is Fitch Doing? Implementation of IFRS is a catalyst for stepping up analytical tools Enhanced and rejuvenated focus on real cash flow for rated corporates More balance sheet focussed analysis means more to do for banks and insurance companies: Blending raw data collection for IFRS banks and introducing new analytical ratios Improving capital model for insurance Fitch has published a number of special comments on IFRS, of which most are available on:

21 Useful Tips 4

22 Number of Ratings and Rating Advisor Number of Ratings No Rating - bonds are increasingly difficult to place 1 Rating - generally sufficient for domestic bonds issues 2 Ratings - common for EMTN- und CP-Programs 3 Ratings - standard for large frequent borrowers Rating Advisor Helpful by … preparing of rating information pack preparing of management meetings Should never … write the Credit Story for the company actively participate in the management meeting

23 Time and Cost of Obtaining a Rating Time Length of the entire rating process depends on Availability of information Preparation of company Complexity of company Completion of rating Generally within 4-6 weeks after the management meeting Depends on open questions from management meeting Cost Standard Rating Fee: from 50,000 p.a. Plus issuance fees Relationship Fee: from 140,000 p.a. Incl. issuance fees Credit Assessment: from 37,500 Non-public

24 Contacts Banks, Insurance Jens Schmidt-Bürgel Geschäfstführer Fitch Deutschland T: 0049 69 7680 76110 F: 0049 69 7680 76250 E: jens.schmidtburgel@ Corporates Andreas Roderburg Director Capital Markets Fitch Deutschland T: 069 7680 76246 F: 069 7680 7620 E: andreas.roderburg@


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