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20 Jan 2004 1 SUSTAINABILITY and Industrial Hygiene JAMES C. ROCK TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY Jan 2004.

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Presentation on theme: "20 Jan 2004 1 SUSTAINABILITY and Industrial Hygiene JAMES C. ROCK TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY Jan 2004."— Presentation transcript:

1 20 Jan 2004 1 SUSTAINABILITY and Industrial Hygiene JAMES C. ROCK TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY Jan 2004

2 20 Jan 20042 OVERVIEW SUSTAINABILITY SUSTAINABILITY THE PROBLEMS THE PROBLEMS THE ETHICS THE ETHICS THE HOPE FOR THE FUTURE THE HOPE FOR THE FUTURE THE ROLE FOR INDUSTRIAL HYGIENE THE ROLE FOR INDUSTRIAL HYGIENE

3 20 Jan 20043 Sustainable Rates of use of renewable resources do not exceed regeneration rates; rates of use of nonrenewable resources do not exceed rates of development of renewable substitutes; rates of pollution emission do not exceed assimilative capacities of the environment. Herman Daly (1996) (1996)

4 20 Jan 20044 LIMITS ON DEVELOPMENT STANDARD OF LIVING IS PROPORTIONAL TO ENERGY CONSUMPTION STANDARD OF LIVING IS PROPORTIONAL TO ENERGY CONSUMPTION ENERGY CONSUMPTION IS THE FOCUS OF SUSTAINABILITY ENERGY CONSUMPTION IS THE FOCUS OF SUSTAINABILITY IMPLEMENTATION MUST APPEAR ETHICAL FOR PEOPLE TO ACCEPT IT IMPLEMENTATION MUST APPEAR ETHICAL FOR PEOPLE TO ACCEPT IT IMPLEMENTATION MUST FOLLOW: IMPLEMENTATION MUST FOLLOW: LAWS OF NATURE LAWS OF NATURE CONSERVATION LAWS CONSERVATION LAWS ENERGY, MOMENTUM, and CHARGE ENERGY, MOMENTUM, and CHARGE

5 20 Jan 20045 POPULATION OF EARTH 2003 POPULATION ~ 6 billion 2003 POPULATION ~ 6 billion Population may plateau in 2060, ~ 10 billion Population may plateau in 2060, ~ 10 billion Today, richest 20% of population (1.2 billion) Today, richest 20% of population (1.2 billion) Consume 75% of energy and resources Consume 75% of energy and resources Median member of top 20% consumes 20 x that of median member of poorest 50% of population Median member of top 20% consumes 20 x that of median member of poorest 50% of population We are in top 20%, for each of us: We are in top 20%, for each of us: It remains less expensive to purchase energy efficient appliances to cut consumption by 100 kW-hr per year than to buy wind or solar plants It remains less expensive to purchase energy efficient appliances to cut consumption by 100 kW-hr per year than to buy wind or solar plants

6 20 Jan 20046 Consumable Energy (fossil) Oil Consumption 3x faster than discovery Oil Consumption 3x faster than discovery Bring all people up to top 20% lifestyle? Bring all people up to top 20% lifestyle? Exhaust coal, oil, shale, natural gas by 2050 Exhaust coal, oil, shale, natural gas by 2050 Then, exhaust Methane clathrates (CH 4 ice) or ??? Then, exhaust Methane clathrates (CH 4 ice) or ??? Keep CO below 540 ppm Keep CO below 540 ppm Limit emissions to less than 9 GT / yr Limit emissions to less than 9 GT / yr Reduce top 20% emissions from 16 to 1 T / yr Reduce top 20% emissions from 16 to 1 T / yr Can NOT bring 10 billion to USA lifestyle with fossil fueled economy Can NOT bring 10 billion to USA lifestyle with fossil fueled economy

7 20 Jan 20047 World Oil Production Deffeyes Prediction (2001) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Production (billion bbl/yr) 1860 80 1900 20 40 60 80 2000 20 40 60 Year Source: Deffeyes, Hubberts Peak (2001)

8 20 Jan 20048 Methane Clathrates may exceed all other Fossil Reserves 300 feet deep in cold oceans 300 feet deep in cold oceans Methane from decaying sediment Methane from decaying sediment Freezes into methane ice Freezes into methane ice + 4 deg would release huge quantities + 4 deg would release huge quantities destabilize ocean floor destabilize ocean floor probably happened 10k yrs ago on earth probably happened 10k yrs ago on earth Energy to harvest may exceed energy in fuel Energy to harvest may exceed energy in fuel Seafloor disasters may preclude deep drilling Seafloor disasters may preclude deep drilling gtresearchnews.gatech.edu/newsrelease/HYDRATES.htm gtresearchnews.gatech.edu/newsrelease/HYDRATES.htm released 11 Jul 2002, Georgia Institute of Technology released 11 Jul 2002, Georgia Institute of Technology

9 20 Jan 20049 Consumable Energy (nuclear) Fission power plants exist, fusion plants not yet. Fission power plants exist, fusion plants not yet. Bring 10 billion people up to top 20% lifestyle? Bring 10 billion people up to top 20% lifestyle? Need 8,000 additional uranium plants Need 8,000 additional uranium plants Exhaust all uranium fuel in 10 years Exhaust all uranium fuel in 10 years If we use breeder reactors If we use breeder reactors Uranium then adds plutonium and thorium to fuel cycle Uranium then adds plutonium and thorium to fuel cycle Uranium will last 700 years (2x life of coal) Uranium will last 700 years (2x life of coal) Fusion plants would last for millennia if burning H Fusion plants would last for millennia if burning H No technology demonstration, as of 2003 No technology demonstration, as of 2003 We should have this as a priority, and we will We should have this as a priority, and we will

10 20 Jan 200410 RENEWABLE ENERGY - 1 Solar power density = 1.36 kW/m 2 Solar power density = 1.36 kW/m 2 Exo-atmospheric incident power density Exo-atmospheric incident power density Max biomass = 26 gal ethanol/ha Max biomass = 26 gal ethanol/ha US not yet harvesting all waste biomass US not yet harvesting all waste biomass US energy use = 1.3X all biomass per year US energy use = 1.3X all biomass per year Solar Electric costs 10X fossil electric Solar Electric costs 10X fossil electric Price competition due to tax credits today Price competition due to tax credits today Large Solar Plant reduces Biomass Large Solar Plant reduces Biomass Large Solar Plant does not harvest Carbon Large Solar Plant does not harvest Carbon

11 20 Jan 200411 RENEWABLE ENERGY - 2 Water power is developed in US Water power is developed in US Produces 1 to 6% of energy in US Produces 1 to 6% of energy in US Wind power is developing Wind power is developing Capable of ~ 1 to 12% of US base load Capable of ~ 1 to 12% of US base load Hawaii now has wind capacity = 20% of base load Hawaii now has wind capacity = 20% of base load Peak capacity unusable due to inability to control Peak capacity unusable due to inability to control Dynamic load shifting expected by 2015 Dynamic load shifting expected by 2015 Off Peak Storage remains a challenge Off Peak Storage remains a challenge Pumped water, air pressure, flywheel Pumped water, air pressure, flywheel Quantum Spin Flip in Advanced Magnetic materials Quantum Spin Flip in Advanced Magnetic materials Reversible chemical reactions Reversible chemical reactions The hydrogen economy vs hydrocarbon economy The hydrogen economy vs hydrocarbon economy

12 20 Jan 200412 Space, Shelter, Food For 10 billion to live as 1.2 billion do now For 10 billion to live as 1.2 billion do now Need 3.5x more forest area Need 3.5x more forest area Need 5 billion ha cropland (now 1.4 billion ha) Need 5 billion ha cropland (now 1.4 billion ha) Need 100 billion ha support land for all the new cities Need 100 billion ha support land for all the new cities For energy, food and water For energy, food and water Need 14x total productive land on earth Need 14x total productive land on earth Additional land needed for disposal Additional land needed for disposal

13 20 Jan 200413 Limits to Growth Summary To bring Earths sustainable population up to top 20% standard of living, with technology as we know it To bring Earths sustainable population up to top 20% standard of living, with technology as we know it 0.5 to 2.0 billion people 0.5 to 2.0 billion people If 5 to 20-fold improvement in efficiency If 5 to 20-fold improvement in efficiency Earth is sustainable with 10 billion people Earth is sustainable with 10 billion people Must pursue such technology quickly to preserve fossil fuel Must pursue such technology quickly to preserve fossil fuel Must also find other energy sources within a decade Must also find other energy sources within a decade Otherwise, earth is overloaded with people and 80 to 90% die Otherwise, earth is overloaded with people and 80 to 90% die Energy efficiency in base load, automotive and building systems is an essential future industrial activity, and Industrial Hygiene insight is needed. Get ready, get set, GO. Energy efficiency in base load, automotive and building systems is an essential future industrial activity, and Industrial Hygiene insight is needed. Get ready, get set, GO.

14 20 Jan 200414 NAE Ethics Discussion Engineers face complex moral issues that cannot be resolved by codes of professional behavior. Engineers face complex moral issues that cannot be resolved by codes of professional behavior. Ethics, to use the felicitous words Lord Bank uttered three- quarters of a century ago, can be called the Ethics, to use the felicitous words Lord Bank uttered three- quarters of a century ago, can be called the "observance of the unenforceable." In Lawrence Durrel's Justine, Balthazar says, In Lawrence Durrel's Justine, Balthazar says, "morality is nothing if it is merely a form of good behavior." These two definitions provide as good a preamble as any to a discussion of engineering ethics. These two definitions provide as good a preamble as any to a discussion of engineering ethics. Ethics falls in the middle of the spectrum, with laws, norms, and codes at one extreme and good manners at the other. Ethics falls in the middle of the spectrum, with laws, norms, and codes at one extreme and good manners at the other. http://www.nae.edu/NAE/naehome.nsf/weblinks/MKEZ-5F8L4U?OpenDocument Bugliarello, George, Machines, Modifications of Nature, and Engineering Ethics, The Bridge, 30:3-Fall 2002.

15 20 Jan 200415 NAE Engineering Ethics Engineers create and use artifacts Engineers create and use artifacts artifacts are machines to extend biological capabilities artifacts are machines to extend biological capabilities dams, engines, radios, computers, automotive vehicles dams, engines, radios, computers, automotive vehicles Every artifact modifies pre-existing nature Every artifact modifies pre-existing nature Engineering Ethics are the Ethics of Modification Engineering Ethics are the Ethics of Modification All living organisms modify nature All living organisms modify nature man by conscious design, others primarily by instinct man by conscious design, others primarily by instinct man may be causing unprecedented global changes man may be causing unprecedented global changes

16 20 Jan 200416 NAE Scientific Ethics Scientists strive to understand nature Scientists strive to understand nature Ethical problems are epistomological Ethical problems are epistomological Big ethical lapse is misconduct in research Big ethical lapse is misconduct in research falsify data falsify data Engineers strive to modify nature with artifacts Engineers strive to modify nature with artifacts Ethical problems are more nebulous than in science Ethical problems are more nebulous than in science False sense of security about machine performance False sense of security about machine performance overlooking dangerous consequences & side effects overlooking dangerous consequences & side effects JCR note: Industrial Hygiene is NEEDED here! JCR note: Industrial Hygiene is NEEDED here!

17 20 Jan 200417 NAE -- Grouping Ethical Issues Modification of Nature Modification of Nature Are humans immune from extinction? Are humans immune from extinction? Cui Bonum (Who benefits? Who pays?) Cui Bonum (Who benefits? Who pays?) intergenerational payments, unsustainable processes intergenerational payments, unsustainable processes waste disposal, air pollution, noise mitigation waste disposal, air pollution, noise mitigation Methods and Designs Methods and Designs Should we allow unpredictable artifacts? Should we allow unpredictable artifacts? Software cannot be fully tested Software cannot be fully tested Unintended consequences from genetic engineering Unintended consequences from genetic engineering Control of Technology Control of Technology Ethics needed to provide control unreachable by legal means Ethics needed to provide control unreachable by legal means

18 20 Jan 200418 NAE--Future of Engineering Ethics Perhaps, do no harm or maximize the good Perhaps, do no harm or maximize the good But, no simple definition of good or of harm But, no simple definition of good or of harm Today, engineering, as the motive force for technology, is raising pressing new ethical questions Today, engineering, as the motive force for technology, is raising pressing new ethical questions Blurred boundaries between machines & living organisms Blurred boundaries between machines & living organisms Enhanced destructiveness of weapons Enhanced destructiveness of weapons Is this an application of science that benefits human kind? Is this an application of science that benefits human kind? Are humans the most violent species? Are humans the most violent species? Must we limit per capita energy consumption? Must we limit per capita energy consumption?

19 20 Jan 200419 NAE -- Intertwined Ethical Issues Looks Like the IH mission Seek Intelligent modifications of nature Seek Intelligent modifications of nature Technological determinism Technological determinism Access to the profession Access to the profession Conflicts & inequities in technology application Conflicts & inequities in technology application Balance global risk, local safety, & quality of life Balance global risk, local safety, & quality of life Seek global sustainability Seek global sustainability Careful with artifacts whose performance is unpredictable Careful with artifacts whose performance is unpredictable

20 20 Jan 200420 NAE Conclusion Engineers [and Industrial Hygienists] face an enormous and urgent challenge. Engineers [and Industrial Hygienists] face an enormous and urgent challenge. A comprehensive engineering ethic will have to be built patiently, stone by stone, case by case, and then continuously tested and reexamined in the context of very rapid technological and social change. A comprehensive engineering ethic will have to be built patiently, stone by stone, case by case, and then continuously tested and reexamined in the context of very rapid technological and social change.

21 20 Jan 200421 Industrial Hygienists Role Anticipate Anticipate Trends in science & feasible technology Trends in science & feasible technology Recognize Recognize Laws v. Hypotheses of Nature Laws v. Hypotheses of Nature Evaluate Evaluate Usable Laws of Nature Usable Laws of Nature Control (Substitution) Control (Substitution) Apply Laws of Nature to Present Problems Apply Laws of Nature to Present Problems

22 20 Jan 200422 LAWS OF NATURE - Anticipate Dynamic Theory derives standard model Dynamic Theory derives standard model Search Web under Pharis Williams Dynamic Theory Search Web under Pharis Williams Dynamic Theory State laws of thermodyanamics in precise mathematical form State laws of thermodyanamics in precise mathematical form Solutions exist only in Weyl Geometry (hyperbolic) Solutions exist only in Weyl Geometry (hyperbolic) No general solution known; special solutions fascinate me No general solution known; special solutions fascinate me Different solutions appear with different assumptions Different solutions appear with different assumptions Solve in 3-D: find Newtons Laws Solve in 3-D: find Newtons Laws Solve in 4-D: find Maxwells Electromagnetism Solve in 4-D: find Maxwells Electromagnetism Solve in 4-D: find Einsteins General Relativity Solve in 4-D: find Einsteins General Relativity Solve in 4-D: find Schroedingers Wave Equation (Quantum Theory) Solve in 4-D: find Schroedingers Wave Equation (Quantum Theory) Solutions in are emerging 5-D and higher D Solutions in are emerging 5-D and higher D

23 20 Jan 200423 LAWS OF NATURE - Recognize Williams Dynamic Theory Williams Dynamic Theory Promises a Unification of Physics as we know it Promises a Unification of Physics as we know it Existing Standard Theory is derived from Thermodynamics Existing Standard Theory is derived from Thermodynamics No need to assume a geometry for space time No need to assume a geometry for space time So far, no testable new predictions. So far, no testable new predictions. String Theory String Theory A leading candidate for theory of everything A leading candidate for theory of everything Energy is intrinsically quantized into flexible strings Energy is intrinsically quantized into flexible strings Our world is one set of string configurations Our world is one set of string configurations Replaces prior science, rather than unify it Replaces prior science, rather than unify it So far, No testable new predictions. So far, No testable new predictions. The Standard Model The Standard Model All components have been tested & can be used now All components have been tested & can be used now

24 20 Jan 200424 LAWS OF NATURE - Evaluate NEWTONS LAWS NEWTONS LAWS 3-D Cartesian Geometry 3-D Cartesian Geometry MAXWELLS ELECTROMAGNETICS MAXWELLS ELECTROMAGNETICS 4-D space time Cartesian Geometry 4-D space time Cartesian Geometry EINSTEINS RELATIVITY EINSTEINS RELATIVITY 4-D Parabolic or Hyperbolic Curved Geometry 4-D Parabolic or Hyperbolic Curved Geometry THERMODYNAMICS THERMODYNAMICS Initially free of geometric assumptions Initially free of geometric assumptions SCHROEDINGERS QUANTUM MECHANICS SCHROEDINGERS QUANTUM MECHANICS Fits experiments in 4-D space time Cartesian Geometry Fits experiments in 4-D space time Cartesian Geometry

25 20 Jan 200425 LAWS OF NATURE - Control Use what we know to improve human life Use what we know to improve human life Thermodynamics Thermodynamics Electromagnetics and Relativity Electromagnetics and Relativity Quantum Mechanics Quantum Mechanics IH, as multi-disciplinary professionals, can bring good science to decision makers IH, as multi-disciplinary professionals, can bring good science to decision makers We can help society avoid seriously misguided and unduly expensive tactics offered by extremists of all types We can help society avoid seriously misguided and unduly expensive tactics offered by extremists of all types

26 20 Jan 200426 Thermodynamics: basis for action 1 st Law. Energy is Conserved 1 st Law. Energy is Conserved Reject fanciful proposals that do not conserve energy. Reject fanciful proposals that do not conserve energy. 2 nd Law. Entropy is monotonic increasing in a closed system and represents energy that has lost its ability to do useful work. 2 nd Law. Entropy is monotonic increasing in a closed system and represents energy that has lost its ability to do useful work. Reject proposals that offer more work output than conditions allow. Reject proposals that offer more work output than conditions allow. Find REVERSIBLE systems that minimize entropy while doing usable work. Find REVERSIBLE systems that minimize entropy while doing usable work.

27 20 Jan 200427 First Law of Thermodynamics The total quantity of energy in an isolated system remains constant. The total quantity of energy in an isolated system remains constant. Energy is the potential to do work: Hot Matter, Mass in gravitational field, Pressure in Matter, charge in E-field, current in B-field Molecular Bond Energy, Nuclear bond energy Work occurs in many macroscopic forms and may be converted between those forms : FORCE * DISTANCE PRESSURE * VOLUME TORQUE * ANGLE CURRENT * VOLTAGE * TIME CURRENT * CURRENT * INDUCTANCE VOLTAGE * VOLTAGE * CAPACITANCE Force is gravitational, electromagnetic, inertial or nuclear (for now) Fg = MASS * GRAVITATIONAL FIELD Fe = CHARGE * ELECTRIC FIELD Fm = CURRENT * MAGNETIC FIELD Fi = MASS * ACCELERATION

28 20 Jan 200428 Intuitive Second Law Eff maximum = (h up – h lo )/h up = (T hot – T cold )/ T hot In any cyclic process the entropy will either increase or remain the same. http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/seclaw.html#c1

29 20 Jan 200429 Thermal Versions of 2 nd Law It is impossible to extract heat from a hot reservoir and convert it entirely into work. Some energy must move to a cold reservoir. It is impossible for heat to flow from a cold reservoir to a hot reservoir without doing some work. Heat does not flow spontaneously from a cold to a hot reservoir. Chemical or nuclear free energy is < reaction energy change.

30 20 Jan 200430 Thermodynamic Chemistry Energy of a chemical reaction, is Energy of a chemical reaction, is (products energy of formation) - (reactants energy of formation) (products energy of formation) - (reactants energy of formation) H = U + PV, Enthalpy is a measure of reaction energy H = U + PV, Enthalpy is a measure of reaction energy F = U – TS, Helmholtz free energy (reaction at const V) F = U – TS, Helmholtz free energy (reaction at const V) G = H – TS = U + PV – TS, Gibbs free energy (const P) G = H – TS = U + PV – TS, Gibbs free energy (const P) Portion of reaction energy at constant P available to do work Portion of reaction energy at constant P available to do work The four thermodynamic potentials are related by offsets of the "energy from the environment" = TS, and the "expansion work" = PV. A mnemonic diagram suggested by Schroeder can help keep track of the relationships between the four thermodynamic potentials.

31 20 Jan 200431 Two Sustainable Fuel Cycles Reversible Reactions for a Gaseous & a Liquid Fuel Reversible Reactions for a Gaseous & a Liquid Fuel Hydrogen: 2 H 2 + O 2 2 H 2 O Hydrogen: 2 H 2 + O 2 2 H 2 O 285 kJ/mol = 143 kJ/g 285 kJ/mol = 143 kJ/g Ethanol: C 2 H 6 O + 3 O 2 3 H 2 O + 2 C O 2 Ethanol: C 2 H 6 O + 3 O 2 3 H 2 O + 2 C O 2 1082 kJ/mol = 24.6 kJ/g 1082 kJ/mol = 24.6 kJ/g Enthalpies of Formation for all compounds Enthalpies of Formation for all compounds H 2 = 0 kJ/mol, C 2 H 6 O = - 277 kJ/mol H 2 = 0 kJ/mol, C 2 H 6 O = - 277 kJ/mol H 2 O = -286 kJ/mol, C O 2 = -393 kJ/mol H 2 O = -286 kJ/mol, C O 2 = -393 kJ/mol Enthalpies of Reaction per mol or g of fuel Enthalpies of Reaction per mol or g of fuel To Synthesize Fuel from combustion products: add energy To Synthesize Fuel from combustion products: add energy To use energy, burn fuels in appropriate equipment To use energy, burn fuels in appropriate equipment Free Energy from fuel < Energy to reverse the cycle Free Energy from fuel < Energy to reverse the cycle

32 20 Jan 200432 Energy Needed to Sustain Free energy released during combustion < Energy of Formation Free energy released during combustion < Energy of Formation Forward reaction releases less energy than reverse reaction Forward reaction releases less energy than reverse reaction Plants in biosphere release oxygen and sequester carbon Plants in biosphere release oxygen and sequester carbon As already pointed out, earth will not sustain carbon projected release rates As already pointed out, earth will not sustain carbon projected release rates Need a new primary source of energy, or lower standard of living, or fewer people Need a new primary source of energy, or lower standard of living, or fewer people

33 20 Jan 200433 Rocks Energy Proposal Maximize Solar, Wind, Hydro and Geothermal Sources Maximize Solar, Wind, Hydro and Geothermal Sources Use fission power plants (breeders) Use fission power plants (breeders) to maximize free energy from Uranium to maximize free energy from Uranium Provide centuries of energy with modest volumes of nuclear waste Provide centuries of energy with modest volumes of nuclear waste Develop Fusion Power Develop Fusion Power B Freeman & J Rock developing Dense Plasma Focus at TAMU B Freeman & J Rock developing Dense Plasma Focus at TAMU Deuterium provides millenia of energy, no nuclear waste Deuterium provides millenia of energy, no nuclear waste Adopt chemical fuels for automative and off peak storage Adopt chemical fuels for automative and off peak storage Methanol: 2 CO 2 + 4 H 2 O 2 CH 4 O + 3 O 2 Methanol: 2 CO 2 + 4 H 2 O 2 CH 4 O + 3 O 2 Ethanol: C 2 H 6 O + 3 O 2 3 H 2 O + 2 C O 2 Ethanol: C 2 H 6 O + 3 O 2 3 H 2 O + 2 C O 2 Methane: 2 CO 2 + 4 H 2 O 2 CH 4 + 4 O 2 Methane: 2 CO 2 + 4 H 2 O 2 CH 4 + 4 O 2 Ammonia: N 2 + 3 H 2 2 NH 3 Ammonia: N 2 + 3 H 2 2 NH 3 Hydrogen: 2 H 2 O 2 H 2 + O 2 Hydrogen: 2 H 2 O 2 H 2 + O 2

34 20 Jan 200434 Paths to Fusion TAMU Dense Plasma Focus TAMU Dense Plasma Focus Princeton Tokamok Princeton Tokamok Lawrence Livermore National Ignition Facility Lawrence Livermore National Ignition Facility

35 20 Jan 200435 Dense Plasma Focus Dense Plasma Focus (DPF): Dense Plasma Focus (DPF): An intense, pulsed source of x- rays, neutrons and ions. Design Parameters: 465 kJ 3-5 MA 5 µs rise time Current research: Feasibility studies using the DPF for fusion. Non Destructive Inspection. Deep Space propulsion by means of ion-thruster with 10 to 100x the specific impulse of present technology.

36 20 Jan 200436 DPF Deuterium Scaling Law Present Capability is 1 to 4 MA Power Generation predicted at 25+ MA

37 20 Jan 200437 Rocks History of Energy Pre-History Pre-History Biomass was used for millenia during pre-history Biomass was used for millenia during pre-history Stored Biomass in use for centuries as coal and peat Stored Biomass in use for centuries as coal and peat Stored biomass in use for decades as oil and natural gas Stored biomass in use for decades as oil and natural gas Nuclear Fission burning Uranium in use for years Nuclear Fission burning Uranium in use for years We are here in 2004 on this putative timeline We are here in 2004 on this putative timeline Nuclear Fission in use for decades to centuries Nuclear Fission in use for decades to centuries Edward Teller said two things in the 1950s Edward Teller said two things in the 1950s Bury all reactors; keep actinides in reactors to boil water Bury all reactors; keep actinides in reactors to boil water Nuclear Fusion promises millenia as deuterium and tritium Nuclear Fusion promises millenia as deuterium and tritium Allow 10 billion people to achieve US lifestyle Allow 10 billion people to achieve US lifestyle Bright Future Bright Future

38 20 Jan 200438 Sustainable Development -Energy Methanol, CH 4 O, wood alcohol, a liquid fuel? Methanol, CH 4 O, wood alcohol, a liquid fuel? CH 4 O via Proton Exchange Membranes (NASA – JPL invention) CH 4 O via Proton Exchange Membranes (NASA – JPL invention) CH 4 O is the Only fuel used for Indianapolis Race Cars CH 4 O is the Only fuel used for Indianapolis Race Cars Synthesis Gas from waste, then to Methanol Synthesis Gas from waste, then to Methanol Destructive distillation of plant tissue (from waste) Destructive distillation of plant tissue (from waste) Natural Gas is steam-reformed to Syngas (H 2 + CO) Natural Gas is steam-reformed to Syngas (H 2 + CO) Syngas heated with catalyst to form methanol Syngas heated with catalyst to form methanol Reaction Products: water and carbon dioxide Reaction Products: water and carbon dioxide Need to supply Need to supply

39 20 Jan 200439 Methanol Fuel Cells are Possible 18 March1999. 18 March1999. DaimlerChrysler Chairmen Robert J. Eaton and Juergen E. Schrempp Wednesday unveiled the first drivable, zero-emission, methanol fuel-cell car. DaimlerChrysler Chairmen Robert J. Eaton and Juergen E. Schrempp Wednesday unveiled the first drivable, zero-emission, methanol fuel-cell car. ACGIH TLV = 200 ppm. ACGIH TLV = 200 ppm. Methanol vapor causes neuropathy, vision loss and CNS damage. It is a skin irritant Methanol vapor causes neuropathy, vision loss and CNS damage. It is a skin irritant http://www.enn.com/enn-news-archive/1999/03/031899/necar4_2203.asp http://www.lanl.gov/energy/est/transportation/trans/pdfs/workshop/narayanan.pdf The first zero-emission, fuel-cell vehicle with space for a driver and passengers. The car, on display in Washington, D.C., Wednesday, has a top speed of 90 miles per hour, travels nearly 280 miles on a methanol fill up and can carry 5 passengers. The federal government is sponsoring research to commercialize this technology.

40 20 Jan 200440 Norway: Sustainable (?) Energy Methanol from Natural Gas Methanol from Natural Gas Fish grown in Fish grown in oxygenated warm cooling water from methanol plant. Protein grown by Protein grown by Methylococcus capsulatus feeding on warm natural gas. It is fish food. Tomatoes grown from waste carbon Tomatoes grown from waste carbon dioxide, solar heat, and waste heat. Farming closer to arctic circle than otherwise possible. Farming closer to arctic circle than otherwise possible. http://www.conoco.com/pa/special/norway.asp Tjeldbergodden is located a bit south of the arctic circle.

41 20 Jan 200441 Is Methanol Energy Sustainable? The Present & Future Debate Is it ethical to burn fossil feedstock rather than save it for polymers to be used by future generations? Is it ethical to burn fossil feedstock rather than save it for polymers to be used by future generations? Perhaps it is OK, if methanol is derived from waste streams. Perhaps it is OK, if methanol is derived from waste streams. Not sustainable if derived from plants grown for the purpose Not sustainable if derived from plants grown for the purpose energy to grow, harvest and distill exceeds energy value of the fuel. energy to grow, harvest and distill exceeds energy value of the fuel. US energy consumption 1.3x energy value of all plant life each year US energy consumption 1.3x energy value of all plant life each year Energy budget for methanol from natural gas Energy budget for methanol from natural gas Not sustainable when geologic deposits of fossil fuel fail Not sustainable when geologic deposits of fossil fuel fail Use of waste heat, as in Norway, improves value of CH 4 Use of waste heat, as in Norway, improves value of CH 4

42 20 Jan 200442 Near Term Options Define Industries needing IH support Define Industries needing IH support Reversible Engines that minimize entropy to maximize free energy: Reversible Engines that minimize entropy to maximize free energy: Starrotor, Weisman, Erickson Cycle, Brayton Cycle, Carnot Cycle, Starrotor, Weisman, Erickson Cycle, Brayton Cycle, Carnot Cycle, LN2 Superconductors for Transmission Lines, Transformers, Motors & Generators LN2 Superconductors for Transmission Lines, Transformers, Motors & Generators Save 10% of US electricity, enough to provide initial supply of electricity to all of Africa Save 10% of US electricity, enough to provide initial supply of electricity to all of Africa

43 20 Jan 200443 The Human Carbon Cycle Liquid hydrocarbon fuel for automotive use Liquid hydrocarbon fuel for automotive use Increasing automotive demand Increasing automotive demand Increasing [CO 2 ] in air, a greenhouse gas Increasing [CO 2 ] in air, a greenhouse gas If all fossil fuel burned, [CO 2 ] ~ 4700 ppm If all fossil fuel burned, [CO 2 ] ~ 4700 ppm [CO 2 ] was <300 ppm, now nearly ~400 ppm [CO 2 ] was <300 ppm, now nearly ~400 ppm EEC is funding CO 2 deep injection technology EEC is funding CO 2 deep injection technology DOE is funding Carbonate Salt Adsorption DOE is funding Carbonate Salt Adsorption Allows CO 2 removal distant from source Allows CO 2 removal distant from source Permits sequestration industry in developing nations Permits sequestration industry in developing nations

44 20 Jan 200444 The Geo-Carbon Cycle Huge reservoir of methane clathrate ice in deep, cold ocean water Huge reservoir of methane clathrate ice in deep, cold ocean water Hydrogen clathrate ice, too? Hydrogen clathrate ice, too? A bit of planetary warming will release methane, the strongest of the greenhouse gases (other than water, which seems to be OK) A bit of planetary warming will release methane, the strongest of the greenhouse gases (other than water, which seems to be OK) This probably happened during the warm period 10 to 11 thousand years ago. This probably happened during the warm period 10 to 11 thousand years ago. If it happens now, global warming will accelerate. If it happens now, global warming will accelerate.

45 20 Jan 200445 Methane Clathrate Ecology This close-up photo shows a dense colony of one-to-two inch-long polychaete worms living on and in the surface of the methane hydrate. These worms were discovered on July 15th 1997, by Penn State Associate Professor of Biology Charles Fisher and his research team, which is just beginning to study them. they speculate that the worms may colonize the hydrates even when they are buried and that the worm's nutrition is tightly tied to the hydrate itself. (Photo credit: Charles Fisher, Penn State)

46 20 Jan 200446 Where will we get our energy? Study by Shell Group Planning Georges Dupont-Roc Alexon Khor Chris Anastasi The Evolution of the Worlds Energy Systems - 1996

47 20 Jan 200447

48 20 Jan 200448 Greenhouse Effect Visible Infrared

49 20 Jan 200449 Greenhouse Gases Visible Greenhouse Gases CH 4 CFC NO x CO 2

50 20 Jan 200450 Recent CO 2 Concentration 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 310 CO 2 Concentration (ppm) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Mauna Loa Observatory

51 20 Jan 200451 Historical CO 2 Concentration 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Time Before Present (1000 years) Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppm)

52 20 Jan 200452 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Time Before Present (1000 years) Temperature Change from Present ( o C) Temperature Change

53 20 Jan 200453 Combined 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Time Before Present (1000 years) Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppm) Temperature Change from Present ( o C)

54 20 Jan 200454 Recent Correlation 1860 80 1900 20 40 60 80 2000 Year 385 365 345 325 305 285 265 CO 2 Concentration (ppm) 14.7 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.5 Average Global Temperature ( o C) Temp CO 2

55 20 Jan 200455 Princeton Model 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.2 Average Global Temperature ( o C) 1860 80 1900 20 40 60 80 2000 Year Model Data Model Includes: CO 2 Aerosols Solar Radiation

56 20 Jan 200456 Carbon Emissions 1905 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 76543217654321 CO 2 Emissions (billion tonnes per year) } } Developed World (US, Canada, Western Europe) Rest of World Year

57 20 Jan 200457 Potential Negative Effects rapid extinctions tropical diseases moving north Grain Belt becomes Dust Belt more insects rising ocean levels increased heat-related deaths Gulf Stream shuts down, chilling Europe increased storms/floods/hurricanes droughts and floods more common more forest fires due to drought weakened coral reefs

58 20 Jan 200458 Exacerbating Effects extended thaw in tundra polar ice caps melt methane clathrates melt

59 20 Jan 200459 Biofuels CO 2

60 20 Jan 200460 REFERENCES Lackner, K.S., P. Grimes, H-J Ziock: Carbon Dioxide Extraction from Air: Is it an Option? Proceedings of the 24 th Annual Technical Conference on Coal Utilization and Fuel Systems, Mar 8-11, 1999. Lackner, K.S., P. Grimes, H-J Ziock: Carbon Dioxide Extraction from Air: Is it an Option? Proceedings of the 24 th Annual Technical Conference on Coal Utilization and Fuel Systems, Mar 8-11, 1999.

61 20 Jan 200461 REFERENCES (contd) Sustainable Manufacturing Roadmap, Center for Waste Reduction Technologies of the AIChE, July 2002. Sustainable Manufacturing Roadmap, Center for Waste Reduction Technologies of the AIChE, July 2002. Call for Network Proposals on the Sustainable Use of Materials, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) Call for Network Proposals on the Sustainable Use of Materials, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)

62 20 Jan 200462 Another Proposal For Hydrogen Store and transport H 2 as liquid Ammonia Store and transport H 2 as liquid Ammonia ammonia is 75% hydrogen, power density = 1.87 kWhr/kg or 1.45 kWhr/L ammonia is 75% hydrogen, power density = 1.87 kWhr/kg or 1.45 kWhr/L Methanol is 67% hydrogen, power density = 1.45 kWhr/kg or 1.15 kWhr/L Methanol is 67% hydrogen, power density = 1.45 kWhr/kg or 1.15 kWhr/L Use in proton exchange membrane fuel cell Use in proton exchange membrane fuel cell As for sustainable methanol cycle, one needs primary power to create a sustainable ammonia-based automotive fuel cycle As for sustainable methanol cycle, one needs primary power to create a sustainable ammonia-based automotive fuel cycle Reaction at the heart of the fuel cycle: Reaction at the heart of the fuel cycle: Catalytically Decompose NH 3 at 1180 K to N 2 and H 2 Catalytically Decompose NH 3 at 1180 K to N 2 and H 2 2 NH 3 N 2 + 3 H 2 http://www.electricauto.com/HighDensity_STOR.htm

63 20 Jan 200463 Setting the Stage Oil shortage Greenhouse Effect

64 20 Jan 200464 Oil shortage Greenhouse Effect Setting the Stage


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