1. Climate Related Problem at Indramayu Kusnomo Tamkani and Rizaldi Boer Dinas Pertanian Indramayu, Bogor Agricultural University

2. OUTLINE Introduction Climate Problems –What is the problem ? –For whom is this a problem ? –Why is this a problem ? –When and how does the problem occur ? Impacts –What kinds of data illustrate the problems ? Process of Data Collection

3. NORTH MIDDLE SOUTH Java sea Located in north coastal area of West Java with total land area of about 214 thousand hectares It has 28 sub-districts and 310 villages INTRODUCTION

4. Land use is dominated by rice paddy field (58%) 95% of area has elevation of between 0-3 m a.s.l. and 5% between 3-100 m a.s.l (part of the south region) Mean daily temperature is between 26 and 27 o C Annual rainfall is about 1430 mm with 75 rainy days. Population is 1.6 million with growth rate of about 1.6% per annum

5. The main economic activity of Indramayu’s people is agriculture About 65% of population depend on this sector. Of this, about 95% engages in rice- based farming system. Mean annual planting area of rice is about 205 thousand ha and total annual production is about 1.2 million ton (Contribute to about 27% of West Java) Contribution of agriculture sector to total gross regional domestic product is quite significant NORTH MIDDLE SOUTH North area is mainly end tail irrigated areas and fish pond, salt mining Middle area is mainly irrigated areas (dominated by rice) South area is mainly rainfed areas (upland crops and horticultures)

6. Contribution of sectors to the total GRDP at Indramayu in 2001 With Oil and Gas Without Oil and Gas Contribution of agriculture sector to total Gross Regional Domestic Product is 16% if oil and gas included and 40% if oil and gas is excluded

7. Climate Related Problems Flood and Drought are two main climate-related problems in Indramayu Rice is the main crop that is severely affected by the two events. Contribution of the two events to production loss at Indramayu is about 86%, while due to pest and diseases is 14% (Based on data from 1997-2003)

8. Climate Related Problems Flood seasons is between January and February (Probability of occurrence and Drought season between June-August

9. Problem Delay monsoon: normally caused rice production loss of less than 6000 ton Early onset of dry season: normally caused rice production loss of more than 150,000 ton Flood caused rice production loss of more than 60,000 ton Flood will flush out fish and shrimp to ocean (no yield expected) Early onset and delay wet and dry season, reduce salt production Planting Area (ha) Mean Rainfall (mm) Fish/shrimp culture Salt mining Vegetables/upland crops rice Fallow Flood Drought North/Middle North South upland rice

10. Mean Rainfall (mm) Planting Area (ha) Case-1: Drought development (PS 1990/1991) Problem – early onset of dry season CH Musim Rendeng jauh di bawah normal CH normal = normal rainfall; Terkena = affected areas; Puso = completely damaged area; Tanam=Planting, Luas=Area; Curah hujan = rainfall

11. Planting Area (ha) Mean Rainfall (mm) Case-2: Flood Development (PS 1999/2000) ~ Rainfall in January was far above normal CH normal = normal rainfall; Terkena = affected areas; Puso = completely damaged area; Tanam=Planting, Luas=Area; Curah hujan = rainfall

12. Impact of Drought on Status of Family Welfare Severe floods and drought will increase number of Pra-KS: Case in 2003, the devastating impact of drought (long dry season) occurred in 2002-2003 increase the number of Poor family by about 14% (Pra-KS and KS1) Severe floods and drought will increase number of Pra-KS: Case in 2003, the devastating impact of drought (long dry season) occurred in 2002-2003 increase the number of Poor family by about 14% (Pra-KS and KS1)

13. Why is the problem ? There was no early warning system for drought and flood Climate forecast was not used to anticipate the events due to no knowledge in using climate forecast information Farmers planted rice paddy in area which were not recommended (outside of area which not scheduled to receive irrigation water) High sediment in the downstream (river) and poor maintenance of the drainage system

14. 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 IMPACT 1997

15. Crop Failure due to flood and drought Total area destroyed by drought increased significantly in El-Nino years. Total area destroyed by flood was much less than that by drought

16. Other Impact of El-Nino events on agriculture production In addition to rice, Indramayu is also known as Mango City. –Population of Mango tree more than 860.000 trees –Average annual production was about 35.000 tons –Potentially, one mango tree could produce 400 kg/tree/annum –During El-Nino years, Mango production and the quality normally increased. –It was estimated in El-Nino years, annual production could increase up to 15% ~ 40.000 tons but the price normally decreased El-Nino also affect either upstream or downstream agribusiness activities –Agriculture inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides can not be absorbed –Many agriculture machines such as hand tractors, rice mills were not operated. Some farmers get income from renting the hand tractors. –Income and purchasing power of farmers decreased significantly ~ may affect economy of Indramayu as a whole

17. Data Collection Process Head of Village All agriculture data, damaged data, refugees number, etc Head of Sub Districts Extension Workers Local Agency for extension Pest and Diseases Observer/ Head of Agriculture Section/ Head of Statistic Section Raksabumi (Water and agriculture) Lebe (Welfare), Lurah Polisi (Security) Task Force for Refugees and Hazards District Offices REGENT GOVERNOR NATIONAL Task Force for Refugees and Hazards