1. Devolution in a downturn Divergent approaches to sustainable economic prosperity? John Adams ippr seminar Queens University, Belfast, 22 June 2009

2. % change on the previous quarter % change compared with the same quarter of the previous year 2008200920082009 Q2Q3Q4Q1Q4Q1 UK0.0-0.7-1.6-1.9-4.1 France-0.4-0.2-1.5-1.2-3.2 Germany-0.5 -2.2-3.8-6.9 EU 15-0.3-0.4-1.8-2.5-4.8 Scotland0.2-0.8-1.7…-2.0 Norway0.1-0.80.8-0.4-0.3 Finland0.1-0.3-1.3…-1.8 Iceland-1.62.9-0.9…-1.3 Ireland-0.41.1-7.1…-7.4 Denmark0.3-0.8-1.9…-3.6

3. Employment rates

4. The response to the recession – Economic and monetary policy reserved – Fiscal policy reserved – Approach of the DAs Boosting demand – Bring forward capital spending, defer NNDR Improving services Skills and apprenticeships Triage, eg ProAct Partnership approach

5. The response to the recession – Common approach – Co-operative approach – Does the credit crunch and the recession expose the dangers of the small country model? The affordability of recapitalisation Inter-connected economies Monetary policy and the exchange rate

6. Divergence and Difference in Industrial Policy – Some divergence Picking winners Competitive tax rates – Much convergence High-value, high productivity Business support and enterprise Innovation Key sectors – Outcomes

7. GVA per head

8. Employment rates