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Comparing adult antenatal-clinic based HIV prevalence with prevalence from national population based surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa.

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Presentation on theme: "Comparing adult antenatal-clinic based HIV prevalence with prevalence from national population based surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa."— Presentation transcript:

1 Comparing adult antenatal-clinic based HIV prevalence with prevalence from national population based surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa

2 2 2007 en 1.Countries with national population based surveys Compare adult HIV prevalence estimates from national surveys to ANC surveillance estimates. Can national survey estimates be confidently used to calibrate ANC data to estimate prevalence among the general population? 2.Countries in which national surveys have not been carried out Can we adjust ANC based estimates in countries without surveys using information from countries in which we have national surveys? Urban areas Rural areas Outline of presentation Outline of presentation

3 1.Countries in which national population based surveys have been carried out

4 4 2007 en National population based surveys in countries with generalized HIV epidemics Since 2000 more than 20 countries with generalized HIV epidemics have conducted national population based surveys (including DHS and AIS) in which HIV testing has been included

5 5 2007 en Challenges in obtaining reliable estimates from national surveys: Sample should be representative of all adults Survey procedures should be of high quality Biomarker data collection should be of high quality Non-response (refusal to participate and absence) should be minimized Sound laboratory testing procedures should be employed Exclusion of population not living in households (e.g. those living in hostels, prisons, military barracks, refugee camps, brothels) could lead to under-estimation of prevalence, particularly in countries with low HIV prevalence

6 6 2007 en Level of non-response in national surveys COUNTRY HIV TESTING COVERAGE South Africa66.4 Malawi67.0 Equatorial Guinea75.0 Kenya77.2 Zambia79.1 Ethiopia80.0 Mali80.4 Lesotho81.5 COUNTRY HIV TESTING COVERAGE Senegal84.7 Ghana86.5 Tanzania87.0 Burkina Faso91.2 Cameroon91.4 Guinea92.9 Uganda94.5 Rwanda96.5 Mean83.2

7 7 2007 en Adjusting for non-response in national surveys Assessing the impact of non-response in five national surveys, Mishra and colleagues (Bull WHO, 2006) show that: Predicted prevalence among non-responders is generally higher (on average about 12%) than observed prevalence among tested participants However, accounting for predicted prevalences among non- responders made little difference to observed prevalences Small effect of non-response bias is due to the small proportion of non-responders in relation to the proportion tested For non-response in the survey to have a significant effect on observed national prevalence, the non-response rate, relative risk of HIV among non-responders, or both, have to be substantial. Mishra V, Vaessen M, Boerma JT, et al. HIV testing in national population-based surveys: experience from the Demographic and Health Surveys. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2006: 84: 537-545

8 8 2007 en Adjusting for non-response in national surveys Mishra V, Vaessen M, Boerma JT, et al. HIV testing in national population-based surveys: experience from the Demographic and Health Surveys. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2006: 84: 537-545 Average Male1.03 Female1.01

9 9 2007 en Scenarios of adult HIV prevalence assuming different risks of prevalence for non-tested relative to tested participants Garcia-Calleja JM, Gouws E, Ghys PD. National population-based HIV prevalence surveys in sub-Saharan Africa: results and implications for HIV and AIDS estimates. Sex Transm Infect 2006; 82 (Suppl III): iii64-iii70. Country Proportion non- response Observed HIV Adjusted HIV prevalence Adjusted vs observed prev ratio (for RR 1.25) RR 1.11.251.5 Burkina Faso 0.0891.8%1.821.841.881.02 Cameroon 0.0865.5%5.555.625.741.02 Equatorial Guinea 0.2503.2%3.283.403.601.06 Ghana 0.1352.2%2.232.272.351.03 Guinea 0.0721.5%1.511.531.551.02 Kenya 0.2286.7%6.857.087.461.06 Lesotho 0.18523.5%23.9324.5925.671.05 Malawi 0.33011.8%12.1912.7713.751.08 Mali 0.1961.7%1.731.781.871.05 Rwanda 0.0343.0%3.013.033.051.01 South Africa HSRC 0.33616.2%16.7417.5618.921.08 Senegal 0.1540.7%0.710.730.751.04 Tanzania 0.1307.0%7.097.237.461.03 Uganda 0.0557.1%7.147.207.301.01 Zambia 0.20915.6%15.9316.4217.231.05 Zimbabwe 0.25516.5%16.9217.5518.601.13

10 10 2007 en Other potential biases in national surveys HIV prevalence among people not living in households (e.g. those living in hostels, prisons, military camps, refugee camps and brothels) is likely to be higher than those living in households Excluding these groups could therefore lead to an underestimate of national prevalence This is more likely to effect low-prevalence countries

11 11 2007 en Summary: In countries with national population based surveys When DHS population is stratified to match the ANC population, the HIV prevalence estimates are very close Where non-response rate or relative risk of HIV among non-responders is high, national survey results should be adjusted for prevalence among non-responders. When methodology is sound, DHS prevalence estimates can be used to calibrate ANC data to estimate prevalence among the general population

12 2.Countries in which national surveys have not been carried out How can the information from those countries with surveys be used to inform the correction factor needed to adjust ANC estimates in countries with no national survey?

13 Rural areas

14 14 2007 en Rural settings: Comparison between national survey and ANC based prevalence estimates for the same year

15 15 2007 en Rural settings: Ratio national survey: ANC prevalence Median 0.76 ( IQR: 0.53 – 0.98)

16 Urban areas

17 17 2007 en Urban settings: Comparison between national survey and ANC based prevalence estimates for the same year

18 18 2007 en Urban ratio: National survey: ANC Median 0.80 ( IQR: 0.62 – 0.99)

19 19 2007 en Summary: In countries without national population based surveys ANC surveillance data tend to overestimate the true prevalence. Recommended to adjust using the survey: ANC prevalence ratio (around 0.8). This is implemented in EPP as the second calibration option which is recommended in countries without national population-based survey.


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