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A Global Framework For Addressing Aviation CO 2 Emissions Paul Steele Director Aviation Environment IATA.

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Presentation on theme: "A Global Framework For Addressing Aviation CO 2 Emissions Paul Steele Director Aviation Environment IATA."— Presentation transcript:

1 A Global Framework For Addressing Aviation CO 2 Emissions Paul Steele Director Aviation Environment IATA

2 Aviation is a key driver of socio-economic development 2.2 Billion passengers 32 Million jobs 8% of global GDP (US$ 3.5 trillion) 2% of global man-made CO 2 emissions Major driver of tourism and trade

3 Aviation faces emissions challenge…… Million tonnes CO Mt ( 2010F) Pre-recession ICAO forecast Post-recession IATA forecast Source: IATA CO 2 emissions from the global fuel burn of commercial airlines

4 Fuel efficiency, litres/100 TKP CO 2 million tonnes Fuel efficiency CO 2 Emissions at frozen 1990 technology Actual Emissions 3.3 Billion tonnes of CO 2 saved …..but our track record is strong

5 Industry Commitment on Climate Change 2008

6 Our four-pillar strategy: Invest in new technology Fly more efficiently Build and use efficient infrastructure Use effective economic measures

7 Global industry targets % p/a fuel efficiency Working towards CNG CNG from 2020 Implementation of global sectoral approach 50% reduction in net CO 2 emissions over 2005 levels

8 Source: IATA Carbon Model CO 2 Abatement cost curve in 2020

9 Emissions reduction roadmap No action % by 2050 CO 2 emissions 2010 Frozen technology emissions Gross emissions trajectory (schematic) CNG 2020

10 Tech Ops Infra No action % by 2050 CO 2 emissions 2010 Frozen technology emissions Known technology, operations and infrastructure measures Carbon-neutral growth 2020 Gross emissions trajectory CNG 2020 (schematic) Emissions reduction roadmap

11 Tech Ops Infra No action CNG % by 2050 CO 2 emissions 2010 Frozen technology emissions Known technology, operations and infrastructure measures Biofuels and additional technology Carbon-neutral growth 2020 Gross emissions trajectory Economic measures Biofuels + add. Tech (schematic) Emissions reduction roadmap

12 2010 to % p/a fuel efficiency Working towards CNG CNG from 2020 Implementation of global sectoral approach 50% reduction in net CO 2 emissions over 2005 levels

13 Source: IATA Carbon Model

14 Key emissions reduction drivers to 2020 Fleet renewal Infrastructure Operations Biofuels Industry can deliver on fleet/ load factor and operations Governments need to support infrastructure and biofuels % Emissions reduction potential to 2020 Industry driven measures Govt. support needed Analysis: Key conclusions Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Retrofits Operations Load Factor Fleet Renewal Source: IATA Carbon Model

15 How can governments help? Invest in ATM improvements – e.g. NextGen and SESAR Invest in R&D funding for new technology Promote scaling up and of sustainable biofuel production

16 biofuels Our biggest opportunity is sustainable biofuels Second & third generation biofuels - e.g. camelina, algae With the potential to reduce our carbon footprint by up to 80% Full certification by Q Next step: scaling up and commercialisation

17 Biofuels could completely replace Jet A-1 Source: E4tech 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Proportion of jet demand High Central (high) Central (low) Low Very low

18 Promotion of aviation biofuels Governments have their part to play too R&D funding Pilot projects Fiscal & investment incentives Transport & energy policy

19 Tech Ops Infra No action CNG % by 2050 CO 2 emissions 2010 Frozen technology emissions Known technology, operations and infrastructure measures Biofuels and additional technology Carbon-neutral growth 2020 Gross emissions trajectory Economic measures Biofuels + add. Tech (schematic) Emissions reduction roadmap

20 Market-based measures Industry recognises that MBMs will be needed to close the gap But we need positive not punitive measures Fiscal/financial/policy measures to: Accelerate R&D Incentivize technical/operational improvements Promote alternative fuels Emissions trading can play a role but must be global Industry offset mechanisms should also be recognized

21 How can governments help? By agreeing A coordinated policy approach A global framework under ICAO By avoiding A fragmented policy approach Unilateral use of national/regional measures

22 Uncoordinated patchwork Green taxes Emissions trading $ ? $ 4 mn$ 1-13 bn $3.5bn $1.2bn $0.2bn$ ? $25bn?$100m

23 Concerns with Environment Taxes Green taxes do nothing for the environment Money goes into central treasury funds Netherlands tax repealed after 18% shift in traffic across borders Distance banding causes market distortions UK APD distortions because based on capital cities Cheaper to fly to Hawaii than Bermuda Taxes hurt developing country trade and tourism Usually distant from tourism source and trade target markets

24 The ICAO 37 th Assembly was a unique opportunity for governments to agree on a global framework…

25 ICAO 37 th Assembly Resolution Positives: First ever global sectoral agreement to reduce carbon emissions Reflects aspirational industry goal of carbon- neutral growth from 2020 Lists 15 principles for MBMs, in line with industry priorities, e.g. Transparency and simplicity No duplication Minimize leakage and distortion Appropriate access to all carbon markets

26 Aviations economic impact If aviation were a country, it would rank 21 st in terms of GDP –same size as Switzerland 35% of goods transported worldwide – by value – are sent by air, but only 5% by volume 40% of international tourists travel by air Air travel supports 1.3% of total employment in Africa, contributing $10 billion to GDP and is 4 times as productive as the economy as a whole In Latin America, 1.8 million jobs are supported by aviation, contributing $22 billion to the GDP

27 The food miles debate High-value, perishable foods Supporting emerging economies Air-freighted fresh produce to the UK alone supports 1.5 million jobs in Africa Food miles argument doesnt stand up – Oxfam report You must look at the full lifecycle and most produce grown in Europe requires large amounts of energy Lincoln University study showed 1kg of New Zealand lamb shipped to the UK had a smaller carbon footprint than 1kg of British lamb

28 Useful Reports

29 IATA carbon offset program 17 Airlines – 6% of global traffic TAP Air Portugal won UNESCO Planet Earth Award in Large credible offset provider sources high quality carbon credits. Carbon credits are compliance grade CERs (under CDM/Kyoto Protocol) Offering passengers a portfolio of offset projects large geographical coverage social and economic benefits for local communities. IATA Carbon Calculator ICAO methodology enhanced with real airline data. Government approved offset program (DECC-UK QA) Phase II of the program has started – corporate travel/online agents.

30 Carbon labelling Flybe first airline to label planes Noise Fuel Consumption CO 2 emissions New CO 2 standard Being developed by ICAO and industry Standard for new aircraft types Ready in 2013

31 A global framework for addressing aviation CO 2 emissions Q & A?


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