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WTO, March 27 th, 2012. Double Asymmetry in RER 1 Exchange rate and international trade World Double Asymmetry in RER: the Brazilian case since 2000 Josue.

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Presentation on theme: "WTO, March 27 th, 2012. Double Asymmetry in RER 1 Exchange rate and international trade World Double Asymmetry in RER: the Brazilian case since 2000 Josue."— Presentation transcript:

1 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 1 Exchange rate and international trade World Double Asymmetry in RER: the Brazilian case since 2000 Josue Gomes da Silva President of COTEMINAS 1 WTO, March 27 th, 2012.

2 Double Asymmetry in RER 22 Brazil and the World

3 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 3 Brazilian GDP growth 3

4 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 4 GDP growth: international comparison 4 * IMF estimates for Brazil and India

5 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 5 Brazil: International Trade 5

6 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 66 Manufacturing in Brazil

7 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 77 Manufacturing Output

8 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 88 Manufacturing Output

9 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 9 Brazil: International Trade 9

10 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 10 Brazil: International Trade 10

11 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 11 Brazil: International Trade

12 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 12 Import penetration and Export coefficients in Brazil

13 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 13 International trade: Trade openness * Accumulated in four quarters until the recent quarter

14 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 14 Brazilian Bottlenecks

15 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 15 Brazilian bottlenecks The highest worlds interest rate The Brazilian Cost: energy costs, taxes, logistic, bureaucracy. Inter-states tax competition Exchange rate

16 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 16 Exchange Rate

17 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 17 The Big Mac Index

18 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 18 Deviations on Real Exchange Rates

19 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 19 Exchange Rate Misalignment

20 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 20 Tariff Profile

21 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 21 Brazil: Tariff Profile

22 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 22 Brazil: Tariff Profile

23 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 23 Brazil: Tariff Profile

24 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 24 Consequences

25 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 25 Sectoral Analysis: case studies

26 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 26 Machinery and Equipments

27 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 27 Machinery and Equipments

28 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 28 Machinery and Equipments Import penetration in apparent consumption – Machinery and equipments, Main indicators: accumulated variation – Machinery and equipments, Accumulated Variation % GDP28,0 Manufacturing Output 12,9 Production30,2 Apparent Consumption 76,5 Exports-20,9 Imports167,0 Source: IBGE, Funcex, in ABIMAQ (2011).

29 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 29 Electronic machinery and equipments

30 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 30 Electronic machinery and equipments

31 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 31 Electronic Machinery and Equipments Import penetration in apparent consumption – Electronic machinery and equipments, Main indicators: accumulated variation – Electronic machinery and equipments, Accumulated Variation % GDP28,0 Manufacturing Output 12,9 Production-9,3 Apparent Consumption 21,0 Exports9,1 Imports99,3 Source: IBGE, Funcex, in ABIMAQ (2011).

32 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 32 Pulp and Paper Source: IBGE. *Employment does not include pulp

33 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 33 Pulp and Paper

34 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 34 Pulp and Paper Import penetration in apparent consumption – Pulp and Paper, Main indicators: accumulated variation – Pulp and paper, Accumulated Variation % GDP28,0 Manufacturing Output 12,9 Production15,0 Apparent Consumption 9,6 Exports55,9 Imports73,3 Source: IBGE, Funcex, in ABIMAQ (2011).

35 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 35 Textile

36 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 36 Textile

37 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 37 Textiles

38 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 38 Exchange Rate Debate in WTO

39 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 39 Exchange Rate Debate in WTO Double Asymmetry in exchange rate is a Brazilian case nowadays, but it is a general issue Exchange rate is a sovereign decision RER belongs to the scope of IMF Should the WTO participate on the discussion?

40 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 40 Exchange rate debate in WTO The private sector expects it to be Proposal for debates: What is the best policy instrument to deal with double asymmetry problems? Anti-subsides? Safeguards? Antidumping measures? Lets think about mechanisms that neutralize exchange rate effects over international trade (beyond tariff palliatives)

41 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 41 Conclusion The double asymmetry problem exits It is a severe issue, it is provoking adjustments that are not recoverable in the long run. This issue interests every country, today is a Brazilian problem, but tomorrow… It has to be faced, otherwise countries will create own solutions against the distortion Tariff war and a protectionist international wave must be avoided

42 WTO, March 27 th, Double Asymmetry in RER 42 Thank you


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