# 11 Predicting Students Performances on the SAT Using their Performances on the 2003-04 8 th Grade MSA M. Wang and A. Milam Division of Accountability,

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11 Predicting Students Performances on the SAT Using their Performances on the 2003-04 8 th Grade MSA M. Wang and A. Milam Division of Accountability, Assessment, and Research

22 Background A total of 4664 students who took the 8 th Grade MSA Reading and MSA Math in 2003-04 and were still AACPS students in 2007-08 were included in the study. Under normal circumstances, the 4664 students should be the 12 graders in the 2007-08 school year. For students who took SAT multiple times, only the highest score was used for the analysis.

33 Questions What are the SAT score distributions? How many of the 2003-04 8 th grade MSA Advanced students have never taken the SAT by the end of the 2007- 08 school year? What grade levels did students in each MSA level usually take the SAT? How well do students performances on the MSA predict their performances on the SAT? What SAT scores are the 8 th grade MSA Advanced students predicted to receive based on their MSA scores?

44 Distribution of the SAT Math Scores

55 Distribution of the SAT Verbal Scores

66 Distribution of the SAT Writing Scores

77 Distribution of the Combined SAT Verbal, Math, and Writing Scores

88 Frequency Table of the SAT Math Scores – By Ethnicity SAT Math Score Ethnicity AsianAfrican American HispanicAmerican Indian WhiteAll N%N%N%N%N%N% 700 – 800 98.02.512.5 1126.01245.1* 600 – 690 3430.4174.1410.0 44623.850120.5* 500 – 590 3228.67718.61025.01 72938.984934.8* 400 – 490 2724.117742.91435.0250.045924.567927.8 300 – 390 108.911026.61025.01 1146.124510.0 200 – 290 307.312.5 12.7431.8 Total 112100.0413100.040100.04 1872100.02441100.0 * Of the 2003-04 8 th grade students who took the SAT, 25.6% scored at least 600 points and 60.4% scored at least 500 points on the SAT Math. Asian and White students had higher chances of scoring at least 500 or 600 points on the SAT Math than other ethnic groups of students. N stands for number of students.

99 Frequency Table of the SAT Verbal Scores – By Ethnicity * Of the 2003-04 8 th grade students who took the SAT, 20.2% scored at least 600 points and 54.5% scored at least 500 points on the SAT Verbal. ** African American students had a smaller chance of scoring at least 500 points on the SAT Verbal than other ethnic groups of students. N stands for number of students. SAT Verbal Score Ethnicity AsianAfrican American HispanicAmerican Indian WhiteAll N%N%N%N%N%N% 700 – 800 32.73.7**12.5 814.3883.6* 600 – 690 2118.7133.1**25.0125.036719.640416.5* 500 – 590 4641.18320.1**1640.0125.069136.983734.3* 400 – 490 3026.817041.2922.5125.056630.277631.8 300 – 390 1210.712129.31025.01 1518.129512.1 200 – 290 235.625.0 16.9411.7 Total 112100.0413100.040100.04 1872100.02441100.0

10 Frequency Table of the SAT Writing Scores – By Ethnicity * Of the 2003-04 8 th grade students who took the SAT, 15.6% scored at least 600 points and 50.8% scored at least 500 points on the SAT Writing. ** African American students had a smaller chance of scoring at least 500 points on the SAT Writing than other ethnic groups of students. N stands for number of students. SAT Writing Score Ethnicity AsianAfrican American HispanicAmerican Indian WhiteAll N%N%N%N%N%N% 700 – 800 21.8 583.1602.5* 600 – 690 1513.4112.7**410.0 29015.532013.1* 500 – 590 4641.17217.4**1230.0250.072738.985935.2* 400 – 490 2925.915838.31230.0 57630.877531.8 300 – 390 1916.914334.61230.0125.020410.937915.5 200 – 290 1.9297.0 125.015.8461.9 Total 112100.0413100.040100.04 1870100.02439100.0

11 Frequency Table of the Combined SAT Scores – By Ethnicity Combined SAT Score Ethnicity AsianAfrican American HispanicAmerican Indian WhiteAll N%N%N%N%N%N% 1800 – 2400 2320.5102.425.0 37920.341417.0* 1550 – 1790 4540.24611.11025.01 65334.975531.0* 1300 – 1540 2118.713532.71127.5125.056530.273330.0 1080 – 1320 2017.913733.21230.0125.022211.939216.1 830 – 1070 32.78019.4512.5125.0452.41345.5 580 – 820 51.2 6.311.4 Total 112100413100401004 18701002439100 * Of the 2003-04 8 th grade students who took the SAT, 17.0% scored at least a total of 1800 points and 48% scored at least a total of 1550 points on the SAT. Asian and White students had higher chances of scoring at least a total of 1550 points on the SAT than other ethnic groups of students. N stands for number of students.

12 SAT Test Status – By Ethnicity By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 52.3% of the 4664 students, 84.8% of the Asian, 46.0% of the African American, 33.3% of the Hispanic, 57.1% of the American Indian, and 53.4% of the White students have taken the SAT. *Asian students had the highest SAT test taken rate. Ethnicity Test Status Number of Students Percent of Students Asian Not-Tested 20 15.2 Tested 112 84.8* African American Not-Tested 485 54.0 Tested 413 46.0 Hispanic Not-Tested 80 66.7 Tested 40 33.3 American Indian Not-Tested 3 42.9 Tested 4 57.1 White Not-Tested 1635 46.6 Tested1872 53.4 All Not-Tested2223 47.7 Tested2441 52.3

13 SAT Test Status – By MSA Math Proficiency Level By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 52.3% of the 4664 students, 26.5% of the MSA Basic students, 57.1% of the MSA Proficient, and 86.4% of the MSA Advanced students in Math have taken the SAT. * By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 13.6% of the 2003-04 8 th grade MSA advanced students in Math have never taken the SAT. MSA Math LevelTest Status Number of Students Percent of Students Basic Not-Tested 1302 73.5% Tested470 26.5% Total1772 100.0% Proficient Not-Tested 773 42.9% Tested 1027 57.1% Total 1800 100.0% Advanced Not-Tested 148 13.6%* Tested 944 86.4% Total 1092 100.0% All Not-Tested 2223 47.7% Tested 2441 52.3% Total4664 100.0%

14 SAT Test Status – By MSA Reading Proficiency Level By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 24.0% of the MSA Basic students, 53.6% of the MSA Proficient, and 81.4% of the MSA Advanced students in Reading have taken the SAT. * By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 18.6% of the 2003-04 8 th grade MSA Advanced students in Reading have never taken the SAT. MSA Reading Level Test StatusNumber of StudentsPercent of Students Basic Not-Tested99376.0% Tested31424.0% Total1307100.0% Proficient Not-Tested101046.4% Tested116753.6% Total2177100.0% Advanced Not-Tested22018.6%* Tested96081.4% Total1180100.0% All Not-Tested222347.7% Tested244152.3% Total4664100.0%

15 SAT Test Status for the Students Who Scored Advanced in Both Math and Reading Portions of the MSA * By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 8.7% of the 2003-04 8 th grade MSA Advanced students in Reading and Math have never taken the SAT. ** Note: One of the 8 th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced and SAT tested students did not take the SAT Writing test. Test Status Number of the MSA Math and Reading Advanced Students Percent of Students Not-Tested**598.7%* Tested619**91.3% Total678100.0%

16 Frequency Table of the Ethnicities of the 59 MSA Advanced Students Who Have Never Taken the SAT by the End of the 2007-08 School Year EthnicityNumber of StudentsPercent of Students Asian 23.4 African American 35.1 Hispanic 35.1 White 5186.4* Total 59100.0 * Of the 59 8 th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced students who did not take the SAT by the end of the 2007-08 school year, 86.4% are White students.

17 Frequency Table of the High Schools of the 59 MSA Advanced Students Who Have Never Taken the SAT by the End of the 2007-08 School Year School Number of StudentsPercent of Students Glen Burnie 711.9 North County 35.1 Severna Park 610.2 Chesapeake 46.8 Broadneck 1118.6* Arundel 46.8 Meade 46.8 Old Mill 813.6 Southern 46.8 South River 813.6 Total 59100.0 * Of the 59 8 th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced students who did not take the SAT by the end of the 2007-08 school year, 11 were Broadneck High School students.

18 Grade Levels of the Students When They Took the SAT – By MSA Math Proficiency Level MSA Math Proficiency LevelGrade LevelNumber of the StudentsPercent of the Students Basic 101*.2 1115132.1 1231867.7 Total470100.0 Proficient 103.3 1144543.3 1257956.4 Total1027100.0 Advanced 82.2 107.7 1152956.0 1240643.0 Total944100.0 * The student took the SAT in June 2008. She was still repeating Grade 10, although under normal circumstances, she should be a 12 th grader. Students were more likely to take the SAT in Grade 12, if they scored Basic or Proficient on the 8 th grade MSA Math; and more likely to take the SAT in Grade 11, if they scored Advanced on the 8 th grade MSA Math.

20 Correlation between the 8 th Grade MSA Scale Scores and the SAT Scores * The 8 th grade MSA Reading Scale Score and the SAT Verbal/Writing Scores are strongly correlated. ** The 8 th grade MSA Math Scale Score and the SAT Math Score are strongly correlated. ***The combined 8 th grade MSA Math & Reading Scale Score and the combined SAT score are strongly correlated. MSA Reading Scale Score MSA Math Scale Score Combined MSA Math and Reading Scale Score SAT Verbal Score Correlation Coefficient.722*.654.756 N2441 SAT Writing Score Correlation Coefficient.702*.661.750 N2439 SAT Math Score Correlation Coefficient.584.821**.789 N2441 Combined SAT Score Correlation Coefficient.728.778.835*** N2439

21 Predicting Students SAT Math Score Ranges Using Their Proficiency Levels on the 8 th Grade MSA Math The 8 th Grade MSA Math Proficiency Level BasicProficientAdvanced CountCol %CountCol %CountCol % SAT Math Score Range 200-290439.2% 300-39018238.7%*636.1% 400-49020343.2%*42841.7%**485.1% 500-590418.7%44943.7%**35938.0%*** 600-6901.2%848.2%41644.1%*** 700-8003.3%12112.8%*** * Of the 470 students who scored Basic on the 8 th grade MSA Math, 81.9% scored between 300 and 490 on the SAT Math. ** Of the 1027 students scoring proficient on the 8 th grade MSA Math, 85.4% scored between 400 and 590 on the SAT Math. *** Of the 944 students scoring Advanced on the 8 th grade MSA Math, 94.9% scored between 500 and 800 on the SAT Math.

22 Predicting Students SAT Verbal Score Ranges Using Their Proficiency Levels on the 8 th Grade MSA Reading * Of the 314 students who scored Basic on the MSA Reading, 84.1% scored between 300 and 490 on the SAT Verbal. ** Of the 1167 students scoring proficient on the MSA Reading, 81.8% scored between 400 and 590 on the SAT Verbal. *** Of the 960 students scoring Advanced on the MSA Reading, 86.8% scored between 500 and 800 on the SAT Verbal. The 8 th Grade MSA Reading Proficiency Level BasicProficientAdvanced CountCol %CountCol %CountCol % SAT Verbal Score Range 200-2903410.8%7.6% 300-39015348.7%*13311.4%9.9% 400-49011135.4%*54746.9%**11812.3% 500-590154.8%40734.9%**41543.2%** 600-6901.3%685.8%33534.9%** 700-800 5.4%838.7%**

23 Predicting Students SAT Writing Score Ranges Using Their Proficiency Levels on the 8 th Grade MSA Reading * Of the 314 students who scored Basic on the MSA Reading, 84.4% scored between 300 and 490 on the SAT Writing. ** Of the 1167 students scoring proficient on the MSA Reading, 77.3% scored between 400 and 590 on the SAT Writing. *** Of the 960 students scoring Advanced on the MSA Reading, 82.9% scored between 500 and 800 on the SAT Writing. The 8 th Grade MSA Reading Proficiency Level BasicProficientAdvanced CountCol %CountCol %CountCol % SAT Writing Score Range 200-2903511.2%11.9% 300-39016652.9%*19917.1%141.5% 400-4909931.5%*52745.2%**14915.5% 500-590123.8%37432.1%**47349.3%*** 600-6902.6%534.5%26527.6%*** 700-800 2.2%586.0%***

24 The Scatter Plot of the 8 th Grade MSA Math Scale Score and the SAT Math Score

25 The Scatter Plot of the 8 th Grade MSA Reading Scale Score and the SAT Verbal Score

26 The Scatter Plot of the 8 th Grade MSA Reading Scale Score and the SAT Writing Score

27 The Scatter Plot of the Combined 8 th Grade MSA Math/Reading Scale Score and the Combined SAT Score The Total SAT Score The lowest score of the advanced 8 th grade MSA Reading + the lowest score of the advanced 8 th grade MSA Math is 869.

28 The Corresponding 8 th Grade MSA Math Scale Scores to the SAT Math Scores - By Linear Regression SAT Math Score The Corresponding 8 th Grade MSA Math Scale Score Lower EndEstimatedUpper End 100229251276 200270294320 300311337364 400353380409 500394422453 550*415444*475 600**435**465**497** 700477508542 800518551586 * The lowest advanced score on the 8 th grade MSA Math is 444, which corresponds to 550 points on the SAT Math test. ** The corresponding 8 th grade MSA Math scores to 600 points on the SAT Math test are 435 (lower end), 465 (estimated), and 497(upper end).

29 The Corresponding 8 th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores to the SAT Verbal Scores – By Linear Regression * The lowest advanced score on the 8 th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to 521 points on the SAT Verbal test. ** The corresponding 8 th grade MSA Reading scores to 600 points on the SAT Verbal test are 420 (lower end), 456 (estimated), and 495 (upper end). SAT Verbal Score The Corresponding 8 th Grade MSA Reading Scale Score Lower EndEstimatedUpper End 100 232260290 200 269299331 300 307338372 400 345378413 500 383417454 521*390425*463 600** 420**456**495** 700 458495536 800 496535578

30 The Corresponding 8 th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores to the SAT Writing Scores – By Linear Regression * The lowest advanced score on the 8 th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to 508 points on the SAT Writing test. ** The corresponding 8 th grade MSA Reading scores to 600 points on the SAT Writing test are 425 (lower end), 463 (estimated), and 504 (upper end). SAT Writing Score The Corresponding 8 th Grade MSA Reading Scale Score Lower EndEstimatedUpper End 100 228257289 200 267298332 300 307339375 400 346380418 500 385422461 508*389425*464 600** 425**463**504** 700 464504547 800 504545590

32 Predicting Students Performances on SAT Math Using Their 8 th Grade MSA Math Scale Scores The 8 th Grade MSA Math Score < 465 The 8 th Grade MSA Math Score >= 465 CountCol %CountCol % SAT Math Score < 600175683.4%**6017.9% SAT Math Score >= 60034916.6%27682.1%* * Students who scored higher than or equal to 465 on the 8 th grade MSA Math had a 82.1% chance of scoring at least 600 on the SAT Math. ** Students who scored lower than 465 on the 8 th grade MSA Math had a 83.4% chance of scoring lower than 600 on the SAT Math.

36 Correct Percent of Using the MSA Math Or Reading Score to Predict Whether Students Scoring At Least or Lower Than 600 Points on an SAT Subject Test Correct Percent of Using the 8 th Grade MSA Score As the Predictor Corresponding Math Cut Score Corresponding Reading Cut Score 465*456 *495463*504 SAT Subject Math (>= 600 0r <600)83.4% Verbal (>= 600 0r <600)83.9%80.2% Writing (>= 600 0r<600)85.6%84.8% * Best Predictors

37 Correct Percent of Using the Combined MSA Math & Reading Score to Predict Whether Students Scoring at Least or Lower Than a Total of 1800 Points on the SAT * Best Predictors Correct Percent of Using the Combined 8 th Grade MSA Reading and Math Score As the Predictor The Corresponding Combined 8 th Grade MSA Math and Reading Scale Score 922980 SAT Subject Combined SAT (Verbal + Math + Writing)87.7%* 83.6%

38 Predicting the 8 th Grade MSA Advanced Students Performances on the SAT

39 Frequency Table of the Combined SAT Scores for Students Scoring Advanced on the 8 th Grade MSA Math and Reading - By Ethnicity * Of the 618 8 th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced and SAT tested students, 86.5% scored at least a total of 1600 points and 51.6% scored at least a total of 1800 points on the SAT. ** African American students who were advanced on the 8 th grade MSA Math and Reading had a smaller chance to score at least a total of 1600 points on the SAT than other ethnic groups of students. Combined SAT Score Ethnicity AsianAfrican Am.HispanicWhiteAll N%N%N%N%N% 1800-24001445.2834.8**240.029552.831951.6* 1700-1790516.1521.7**240.011921.313121.2* 1600-1690825.8313.0**7413.28513.7* 1500-1590412.9417.4120.0529.3619.9 1400-149028.7193.4213.4 1300-139014.41.2 Total31100.023100.05 559100.0618100.0

40 Predicted SAT Math Scores of the 8 th Grade MSA Math Advanced Students Advanced MSA Math Score Range Number of Students Percent of Students Average (Predicted) SAT Math Score 444 – 45334636.7%570 454 – 46324125.5%599 464 – 47316217.2%632 474 – 48310411.0%651 > 483919.6%699 All944100.0%610* * The average SAT Math score of the 8 th grade MSA Math advanced students is 610. For example, students scoring between 444 and 453 on the 8 th grade MSA Math had an average of 570 points on the SAT Math.

41 Predicted SAT Verbal Scores of the 8 th Grade MSA Reading Advanced Students Advanced MSA Reading Score Range Number of Students Percent of Students Average (Predicted) SAT Verbal Score 425 – 43428529.7%552 435 – 44429430.6%565 445 – 45413714.3%588 455 – 46412713.2%616 > 46411712.2%647 All960100.0%581* * The average SAT Verbal score of the 8 th grade MSA Reading advanced students is 581.

42 Predicted SAT Writing Scores of the 8 th Grade MSA Reading Advanced Students Advanced MSA Reading Score Range Number of Students Percent of Students Average (Predicted) SAT Writing Score 425 – 43428529.7%533 435 – 44429430.7%554 445 – 45413714.3%573 455 – 46412613.1%600 > 46411712.2%627 All959100.0%565* * The average SAT Writing score of the 8 th grade MSA Reading advanced students is 565.

43 Predicted Total SAT Scores of the 8 th Grade MSA Reading and Math Advanced Students Total MSA Reading and Math Score Range Number of Students Percent of Students Average (Predicted) Total SAT Score 869 – 8836610.7%1677 884 – 89815525.1%1721 899 – 91315525.1%1783 914 – 92810817.4%1845 > 92813421.7%1994 All618100.0%1812* * The average total SAT score of the 8 th grade MSA Reading and Math advanced students is 1812.