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11 Predicting Students Performances on the SAT Using their Performances on the 2003-04 8 th Grade MSA M. Wang and A. Milam Division of Accountability,

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Presentation on theme: "11 Predicting Students Performances on the SAT Using their Performances on the 2003-04 8 th Grade MSA M. Wang and A. Milam Division of Accountability,"— Presentation transcript:

1 11 Predicting Students Performances on the SAT Using their Performances on the th Grade MSA M. Wang and A. Milam Division of Accountability, Assessment, and Research

2 22 Background A total of 4664 students who took the 8 th Grade MSA Reading and MSA Math in and were still AACPS students in were included in the study. Under normal circumstances, the 4664 students should be the 12 graders in the school year. For students who took SAT multiple times, only the highest score was used for the analysis.

3 33 Questions What are the SAT score distributions? How many of the th grade MSA Advanced students have never taken the SAT by the end of the school year? What grade levels did students in each MSA level usually take the SAT? How well do students performances on the MSA predict their performances on the SAT? What SAT scores are the 8 th grade MSA Advanced students predicted to receive based on their MSA scores?

4 44 Distribution of the SAT Math Scores

5 55 Distribution of the SAT Verbal Scores

6 66 Distribution of the SAT Writing Scores

7 77 Distribution of the Combined SAT Verbal, Math, and Writing Scores

8 88 Frequency Table of the SAT Math Scores – By Ethnicity SAT Math Score Ethnicity AsianAfrican American HispanicAmerican Indian WhiteAll N%N%N%N%N%N% 700 – * 600 – * 500 – * 400 – – – Total * Of the th grade students who took the SAT, 25.6% scored at least 600 points and 60.4% scored at least 500 points on the SAT Math. Asian and White students had higher chances of scoring at least 500 or 600 points on the SAT Math than other ethnic groups of students. N stands for number of students.

9 99 Frequency Table of the SAT Verbal Scores – By Ethnicity * Of the th grade students who took the SAT, 20.2% scored at least 600 points and 54.5% scored at least 500 points on the SAT Verbal. ** African American students had a smaller chance of scoring at least 500 points on the SAT Verbal than other ethnic groups of students. N stands for number of students. SAT Verbal Score Ethnicity AsianAfrican American HispanicAmerican Indian WhiteAll N%N%N%N%N%N% 700 – ** * 600 – ** * 500 – ** * 400 – – – Total

10 10 Frequency Table of the SAT Writing Scores – By Ethnicity * Of the th grade students who took the SAT, 15.6% scored at least 600 points and 50.8% scored at least 500 points on the SAT Writing. ** African American students had a smaller chance of scoring at least 500 points on the SAT Writing than other ethnic groups of students. N stands for number of students. SAT Writing Score Ethnicity AsianAfrican American HispanicAmerican Indian WhiteAll N%N%N%N%N%N% 700 – * 600 – ** * 500 – ** * 400 – – – Total

11 11 Frequency Table of the Combined SAT Scores – By Ethnicity Combined SAT Score Ethnicity AsianAfrican American HispanicAmerican Indian WhiteAll N%N%N%N%N%N% 1800 – * 1550 – * 1300 – – – – Total * Of the th grade students who took the SAT, 17.0% scored at least a total of 1800 points and 48% scored at least a total of 1550 points on the SAT. Asian and White students had higher chances of scoring at least a total of 1550 points on the SAT than other ethnic groups of students. N stands for number of students.

12 12 SAT Test Status – By Ethnicity By the end of the school year, 52.3% of the 4664 students, 84.8% of the Asian, 46.0% of the African American, 33.3% of the Hispanic, 57.1% of the American Indian, and 53.4% of the White students have taken the SAT. *Asian students had the highest SAT test taken rate. Ethnicity Test Status Number of Students Percent of Students Asian Not-Tested Tested * African American Not-Tested Tested Hispanic Not-Tested Tested American Indian Not-Tested Tested White Not-Tested Tested All Not-Tested Tested

13 13 SAT Test Status – By MSA Math Proficiency Level By the end of the school year, 52.3% of the 4664 students, 26.5% of the MSA Basic students, 57.1% of the MSA Proficient, and 86.4% of the MSA Advanced students in Math have taken the SAT. * By the end of the school year, 13.6% of the th grade MSA advanced students in Math have never taken the SAT. MSA Math LevelTest Status Number of Students Percent of Students Basic Not-Tested % Tested % Total % Proficient Not-Tested % Tested % Total % Advanced Not-Tested %* Tested % Total % All Not-Tested % Tested % Total %

14 14 SAT Test Status – By MSA Reading Proficiency Level By the end of the school year, 24.0% of the MSA Basic students, 53.6% of the MSA Proficient, and 81.4% of the MSA Advanced students in Reading have taken the SAT. * By the end of the school year, 18.6% of the th grade MSA Advanced students in Reading have never taken the SAT. MSA Reading Level Test StatusNumber of StudentsPercent of Students Basic Not-Tested % Tested % Total % Proficient Not-Tested % Tested % Total % Advanced Not-Tested %* Tested % Total % All Not-Tested % Tested % Total %

15 15 SAT Test Status for the Students Who Scored Advanced in Both Math and Reading Portions of the MSA * By the end of the school year, 8.7% of the th grade MSA Advanced students in Reading and Math have never taken the SAT. ** Note: One of the 8 th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced and SAT tested students did not take the SAT Writing test. Test Status Number of the MSA Math and Reading Advanced Students Percent of Students Not-Tested**598.7%* Tested619**91.3% Total %

16 16 Frequency Table of the Ethnicities of the 59 MSA Advanced Students Who Have Never Taken the SAT by the End of the School Year EthnicityNumber of StudentsPercent of Students Asian 23.4 African American 35.1 Hispanic 35.1 White * Total * Of the 59 8 th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced students who did not take the SAT by the end of the school year, 86.4% are White students.

17 17 Frequency Table of the High Schools of the 59 MSA Advanced Students Who Have Never Taken the SAT by the End of the School Year School Number of StudentsPercent of Students Glen Burnie North County 35.1 Severna Park Chesapeake 46.8 Broadneck * Arundel 46.8 Meade 46.8 Old Mill Southern 46.8 South River Total * Of the 59 8 th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced students who did not take the SAT by the end of the school year, 11 were Broadneck High School students.

18 18 Grade Levels of the Students When They Took the SAT – By MSA Math Proficiency Level MSA Math Proficiency LevelGrade LevelNumber of the StudentsPercent of the Students Basic 101* Total Proficient Total Advanced Total * The student took the SAT in June She was still repeating Grade 10, although under normal circumstances, she should be a 12 th grader. Students were more likely to take the SAT in Grade 12, if they scored Basic or Proficient on the 8 th grade MSA Math; and more likely to take the SAT in Grade 11, if they scored Advanced on the 8 th grade MSA Math.

19 19 Grade Levels of the Students When They Took the SAT – By MSA Reading Proficiency Level Students were more likely to take the SAT in Grade 12, if they scored Basic or Proficient on the 8 th grade MSA Reading; and more likely to take the SAT in Grade 11, if they scored Advanced on the 8 th grade MSA Reading. MSA Reading Proficiency LevelGrade LevelNumber of the StudentsPercent of the Students Basic Total Proficient Total Advanced Total

20 20 Correlation between the 8 th Grade MSA Scale Scores and the SAT Scores * The 8 th grade MSA Reading Scale Score and the SAT Verbal/Writing Scores are strongly correlated. ** The 8 th grade MSA Math Scale Score and the SAT Math Score are strongly correlated. ***The combined 8 th grade MSA Math & Reading Scale Score and the combined SAT score are strongly correlated. MSA Reading Scale Score MSA Math Scale Score Combined MSA Math and Reading Scale Score SAT Verbal Score Correlation Coefficient.722* N2441 SAT Writing Score Correlation Coefficient.702* N2439 SAT Math Score Correlation Coefficient **.789 N2441 Combined SAT Score Correlation Coefficient *** N2439

21 21 Predicting Students SAT Math Score Ranges Using Their Proficiency Levels on the 8 th Grade MSA Math The 8 th Grade MSA Math Proficiency Level BasicProficientAdvanced CountCol %CountCol %CountCol % SAT Math Score Range % %*636.1% %* %**485.1% % %** %*** %848.2% %*** % %*** * Of the 470 students who scored Basic on the 8 th grade MSA Math, 81.9% scored between 300 and 490 on the SAT Math. ** Of the 1027 students scoring proficient on the 8 th grade MSA Math, 85.4% scored between 400 and 590 on the SAT Math. *** Of the 944 students scoring Advanced on the 8 th grade MSA Math, 94.9% scored between 500 and 800 on the SAT Math.

22 22 Predicting Students SAT Verbal Score Ranges Using Their Proficiency Levels on the 8 th Grade MSA Reading * Of the 314 students who scored Basic on the MSA Reading, 84.1% scored between 300 and 490 on the SAT Verbal. ** Of the 1167 students scoring proficient on the MSA Reading, 81.8% scored between 400 and 590 on the SAT Verbal. *** Of the 960 students scoring Advanced on the MSA Reading, 86.8% scored between 500 and 800 on the SAT Verbal. The 8 th Grade MSA Reading Proficiency Level BasicProficientAdvanced CountCol %CountCol %CountCol % SAT Verbal Score Range %7.6% %* %9.9% %* %** % % %** %** %685.8% %** %838.7%**

23 23 Predicting Students SAT Writing Score Ranges Using Their Proficiency Levels on the 8 th Grade MSA Reading * Of the 314 students who scored Basic on the MSA Reading, 84.4% scored between 300 and 490 on the SAT Writing. ** Of the 1167 students scoring proficient on the MSA Reading, 77.3% scored between 400 and 590 on the SAT Writing. *** Of the 960 students scoring Advanced on the MSA Reading, 82.9% scored between 500 and 800 on the SAT Writing. The 8 th Grade MSA Reading Proficiency Level BasicProficientAdvanced CountCol %CountCol %CountCol % SAT Writing Score Range %11.9% %* %141.5% %* %** % % %** %*** %534.5% %*** %586.0%***

24 24 The Scatter Plot of the 8 th Grade MSA Math Scale Score and the SAT Math Score

25 25 The Scatter Plot of the 8 th Grade MSA Reading Scale Score and the SAT Verbal Score

26 26 The Scatter Plot of the 8 th Grade MSA Reading Scale Score and the SAT Writing Score

27 27 The Scatter Plot of the Combined 8 th Grade MSA Math/Reading Scale Score and the Combined SAT Score The Total SAT Score The lowest score of the advanced 8 th grade MSA Reading + the lowest score of the advanced 8 th grade MSA Math is 869.

28 28 The Corresponding 8 th Grade MSA Math Scale Scores to the SAT Math Scores - By Linear Regression SAT Math Score The Corresponding 8 th Grade MSA Math Scale Score Lower EndEstimatedUpper End *415444* **435**465**497** * The lowest advanced score on the 8 th grade MSA Math is 444, which corresponds to 550 points on the SAT Math test. ** The corresponding 8 th grade MSA Math scores to 600 points on the SAT Math test are 435 (lower end), 465 (estimated), and 497(upper end).

29 29 The Corresponding 8 th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores to the SAT Verbal Scores – By Linear Regression * The lowest advanced score on the 8 th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to 521 points on the SAT Verbal test. ** The corresponding 8 th grade MSA Reading scores to 600 points on the SAT Verbal test are 420 (lower end), 456 (estimated), and 495 (upper end). SAT Verbal Score The Corresponding 8 th Grade MSA Reading Scale Score Lower EndEstimatedUpper End *390425* ** 420**456**495**

30 30 The Corresponding 8 th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores to the SAT Writing Scores – By Linear Regression * The lowest advanced score on the 8 th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to 508 points on the SAT Writing test. ** The corresponding 8 th grade MSA Reading scores to 600 points on the SAT Writing test are 425 (lower end), 463 (estimated), and 504 (upper end). SAT Writing Score The Corresponding 8 th Grade MSA Reading Scale Score Lower EndEstimatedUpper End *389425* ** 425**463**504**

31 31 The Corresponding Combined 8 th Grade MSA Reading& Math Scale Scores to the Combined SAT Scores – By Linear Regression * The lowest score of the advanced 8 th grade MSA Reading + the lowest score of the advanced 8 th grade MSA Math is 869, which corresponds to 1593 points on the SAT. ** The corresponding combined 8 th grade MSA Reading and Math scores to 1800 points on the SAT total test are 867 (lower end), 922 (estimated), and 980 (upper end). Combined Score The Corresponding Combined 8 th Grade MSA Reading and Math Scale Score Lower EndEstimatedUpper End *816869* **867**922**980**

32 32 Predicting Students Performances on SAT Math Using Their 8 th Grade MSA Math Scale Scores The 8 th Grade MSA Math Score < 465 The 8 th Grade MSA Math Score >= 465 CountCol %CountCol % SAT Math Score < %**6017.9% SAT Math Score >= % %* * Students who scored higher than or equal to 465 on the 8 th grade MSA Math had a 82.1% chance of scoring at least 600 on the SAT Math. ** Students who scored lower than 465 on the 8 th grade MSA Math had a 83.4% chance of scoring lower than 600 on the SAT Math.

33 33 Predicting Students Performances on SAT Verbal Using Their 8 th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores * Students who scored higher than or equal to 456 on the 8 th grade MSA Reading had a 70.5% chance of scoring at least 600 on the SAT Verbal. ** Students who scored lower than 465 on the 8 th grade MSA Reading had a 85.4% chance of scoring lower than 600 on the SAT Verbal. *** Not many students scored 495 or higher on the 8 th grade MSA Reading. The 8 th Grade MSA Reading Score < 456 The 8 th Grade MSA Reading Score >= 456 CountCol %CountCol % SAT Verbal Score < %**7229.5% SAT Verbal Score >= % %* The 8 th Grade MSA Reading Score < 495 The 8 th Grade MSA Reading Score >= 495 CountCol %CountCol % SAT Verbal Score < %3***21.4% SAT Verbal Score >= %11***78.6%

34 34 Predicting Students Performances on SAT Writing Using Their 8 th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores * Students who scored higher than or equal to 463 on the 8 th grade MSA Reading had a 62.4% chance of scoring at least 600 on the SAT Writing. ** Students who scored lower than 463 on the 8 th grade MSA Reading had a 86.8% chance of scoring lower than 600 on the SAT Writing. *** Students had a 85.7% chance of scoring 600 or higher on the SAT Writing test if they scored 504 or higher on the 8 th grade MSA Reading. However, there were not many students scoring 504 or higher on the 8 th grade MSA Reading. The 8 th Grade MSA Reading Score < 463 The 8 th Grade MSA Reading Score >= 463 CountCol %CountCol % SAT Writing Score < %**4437.6% SAT Writing Score >= %7362.4%* The 8 th Grade MSA Reading Score < 504 The 8 th Grade MSA Reading Score >= 504 CountCol %CountCol % SAT Writing Score < %2***14.3% SAT Writing Score >= %12***85.7%***

35 35 Predicting Students Performances on Combined SAT Using Their Combined 8 th Grade MSA Reading and Math Scale Scores * Students who scored higher than or equal to 922 on the combined 8 th grade MSA Reading and Math had a 79.0% chance of scoring at least a total of 1800 points on the SAT. ** Students who scored lower than 922 on the combined 8 th grade MSA Reading and Math had a 88.4% chance of scoring lower than 1800 on the SAT. *** Students had a 88.2% chance of scoring at least a total of 1800 on the SAT if they scored 980 or higher on the combined 8 th grade MSA. However, there were not many students scoring 980 or higher on the combined 8 th grade MSA. The Combined 8 th Grade MSA Score < 922 The Combined 8 th Grade MSA Score >= 922 CountCol %CountCol % Combined SAT Score < %**4121.0% Combined SAT Score >= % %* The Combined 8 th Grade MSA Score < 980 The Combined 8 th Grade MSA Score >= 980 CountCol %CountCol % Combined SAT Score < %2***11.8% Combined SAT Score >= %15***88.2%***

36 36 Correct Percent of Using the MSA Math Or Reading Score to Predict Whether Students Scoring At Least or Lower Than 600 Points on an SAT Subject Test Correct Percent of Using the 8 th Grade MSA Score As the Predictor Corresponding Math Cut Score Corresponding Reading Cut Score 465*456 *495463*504 SAT Subject Math (>= 600 0r <600)83.4% Verbal (>= 600 0r <600)83.9%80.2% Writing (>= 600 0r<600)85.6%84.8% * Best Predictors

37 37 Correct Percent of Using the Combined MSA Math & Reading Score to Predict Whether Students Scoring at Least or Lower Than a Total of 1800 Points on the SAT * Best Predictors Correct Percent of Using the Combined 8 th Grade MSA Reading and Math Score As the Predictor The Corresponding Combined 8 th Grade MSA Math and Reading Scale Score SAT Subject Combined SAT (Verbal + Math + Writing)87.7%* 83.6%

38 38 Predicting the 8 th Grade MSA Advanced Students Performances on the SAT

39 39 Frequency Table of the Combined SAT Scores for Students Scoring Advanced on the 8 th Grade MSA Math and Reading - By Ethnicity * Of the th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced and SAT tested students, 86.5% scored at least a total of 1600 points and 51.6% scored at least a total of 1800 points on the SAT. ** African American students who were advanced on the 8 th grade MSA Math and Reading had a smaller chance to score at least a total of 1600 points on the SAT than other ethnic groups of students. Combined SAT Score Ethnicity AsianAfrican Am.HispanicWhiteAll N%N%N%N%N% ** * ** * ** * Total

40 40 Predicted SAT Math Scores of the 8 th Grade MSA Math Advanced Students Advanced MSA Math Score Range Number of Students Percent of Students Average (Predicted) SAT Math Score 444 – % – % – % – %651 > %699 All %610* * The average SAT Math score of the 8 th grade MSA Math advanced students is 610. For example, students scoring between 444 and 453 on the 8 th grade MSA Math had an average of 570 points on the SAT Math.

41 41 Predicted SAT Verbal Scores of the 8 th Grade MSA Reading Advanced Students Advanced MSA Reading Score Range Number of Students Percent of Students Average (Predicted) SAT Verbal Score 425 – % – % – % – %616 > %647 All %581* * The average SAT Verbal score of the 8 th grade MSA Reading advanced students is 581.

42 42 Predicted SAT Writing Scores of the 8 th Grade MSA Reading Advanced Students Advanced MSA Reading Score Range Number of Students Percent of Students Average (Predicted) SAT Writing Score 425 – % – % – % – %600 > %627 All %565* * The average SAT Writing score of the 8 th grade MSA Reading advanced students is 565.

43 43 Predicted Total SAT Scores of the 8 th Grade MSA Reading and Math Advanced Students Total MSA Reading and Math Score Range Number of Students Percent of Students Average (Predicted) Total SAT Score 869 – % – % – % – %1845 > %1994 All %1812* * The average total SAT score of the 8 th grade MSA Reading and Math advanced students is 1812.

44 44 Summary SAT Performance Of the th grade students who have taken the SAT, 17% scored at least a total of 1800 points and 48% scored at least a total of 1550 points on the SAT. Asian and White students scored higher on the SAT than other ethnic groups of students. Test Status by MSA Proficiency Level or Ethnicity By the end of the school year, 52.3% of the 4664 students, 84.8% of the Asian, 46.0% of the African American, 33.3% of the Hispanic, 57.1% of the American Indian, and 53.4% of the White students have taken the SAT. By the end of the school year, 13.6% of the th grade MSA advanced students in Math have never taken the SAT. By the end of the school year, 18.6% of the th grade MSA advanced students in Reading have never taken the SAT. By the end of the school year, 8.7 % of the th grade MSA Advanced students in Reading and Math have never taken the SAT. Students were more likely to take the SAT in Grade 12 if they scored Basic or Proficient on the 8 th grade MSA Math or Reading. Students were more likely to take the SAT in Grade 11 if they scored Advanced on the 8 th grade MSA Math or Reading.

45 45 Summary Correlation The 8 th grade MSA Math Scale Score and the SAT Math Score are strongly correlated with correlation coefficient The 8 th grade MSA Reading Scale Score and the SAT Verbal/Writing Scores are strongly correlated with correlation coefficient 0.722/ The combined 8 th grade MSA Math & Reading Scale Score and the combined SAT score are strongly correlated with correlation coefficient MSA Advanced Students The average SAT Math score of the 8 th grade MSA Math advanced students is 610. The average SAT Verbal and Writing scores of the 8 th grade MSA Reading advanced students are 581 and 565, respectively. The average total SAT score of the 8 th grade MSA Reading and Math advanced students is The predicted SAT score ranges using the 8 th grade MSA advanced scores (in points of increment) are available.

46 46 Summary - Predicting Students SAT Score Ranges Using Their Proficiency Levels on the 8 th Grade MSA MSA Math and SAT Math The 8 th grade MSA Math Basic students had a 81.9% chance of scoring between 300 and 490 on the SAT Math. The 8 th grade MSA Math Proficient students had a 85.4% chance of scoring between 400 and 590 on the SAT Math. The 8 th grade MSA Math Advanced students had a 94.9% chance of scoring between 500 and 800 on the SAT Math. MSA Reading and SAT Verbal The 8 th grade MSA Reading Basic students had a 84.1% chance of scoring between 300 and 490 on the SAT Verbal. The 8 th grade MSA Reading Proficient students had a 81.8% chance of scoring between 400 and 590 on the SAT Verbal. The 8 th grade MSA Reading Advanced students had a 86.8% chance of scoring between 500 and 800 on the SAT Verbal. MSA Reading and SAT Writing The 8 th grade MSA Reading Basic students had a 84.4% chance of scoring between 300 and 490 on the SAT Writing. The 8 th grade MSA Reading Proficient students had a 77.3% chance of scoring between 400 and 590 on the SAT Writing. The 8 th grade MSA Reading Advanced students had a 82.9% chance of scoring between 500 and 800 on the SAT Writing.

47 47 Summary - The Corresponding SAT Scores to the Advanced Cut Scores of the 8 th Grade MSA and the Best 8 th Grade MSA Scores Corresponding to 600 points on the SAT MSA Math and SAT Math The lowest advanced score on the 8 th grade MSA Math is 444, which corresponds to 550 points on the SAT Math test. The best corresponding 8 th grade MSA Math score to 600 points on the SAT Math test is 465, which gives a 83.4% of correct prediction on whether or not students scoring at least 600 points on SAT Math. MSA Reading and SAT Verbal The lowest advanced score on the 8 th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to 521 points on the SAT Verbal test. The best corresponding 8 th grade MSA Reading score to 600 points on the SAT Verbal test is 456, which provides a 83.9% correct prediction on whether or not students scoring at least 600 points on SAT Verbal. MSA Reading and SAT Writing The lowest advanced score on the 8 th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to 508 points on the SAT Writing test. The best corresponding 8 th grade MSA Reading scores to 600 points on the SAT Writing test is 463, which gives a 85.6% correct prediction on whether or not students scoring at least 600 points on SAT Writing.

48 48 Summary - The Corresponding Total SAT scores to the Lowest Combined 8 th Grade MSA Advanced Cut Scores and the Best Combined 8 th Grade MSA Scores Corresponding to 1800 points on the SAT The lowest score of the advanced 8 th grade MSA Reading + the lowest score of the advanced 8 th grade MSA Math is 869, which corresponds to 1593 points on the SAT. The best corresponding total 8 th grade MSA score to a total of 1800 points on the SAT is 922, which gives an 87.7% of correct prediction on whether or not students scoring at least a total of 1800 points on the SAT.


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