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An Overview Mayra Buvinic, Director PREMGE Monica Das Gupta, DECRG Ursula Casabonne, PREMGE The World Bank Gender-differentiated impacts of violent conflict.

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Presentation on theme: "An Overview Mayra Buvinic, Director PREMGE Monica Das Gupta, DECRG Ursula Casabonne, PREMGE The World Bank Gender-differentiated impacts of violent conflict."— Presentation transcript:

1 An Overview Mayra Buvinic, Director PREMGE Monica Das Gupta, DECRG Ursula Casabonne, PREMGE The World Bank Gender-differentiated impacts of violent conflict

2 PREMGE – DECRG research program Earlier work on gender, poverty and demography: The impact of demographic conditions on poverty How gender inequalities exacerbate this impact Current work is on the gender-disaggregated impact of violent conflict

3 Conflicts can be self-renewing, livelihood support can help break the cycle High proportion of conflicts today are internal conflicts in poor developing countries Collier and others find: –Economically vulnerable nations more likely to experience conflict –Conflicts destroy physical and human capital, disrupt economies, development in reverse –Conflict trap: conflicts intensify economic vulnerability, so chances of renewed conflict much higher in first 5 years after conflict.

4 Large gender differentials in the impact of conflict Males are subject to far higher excess mortality, injuries, and disability especially young adult males, so labor force heavily impacted Females also highly impacted: –Sexual violence –Left to cope with raising children and caring for the old, often in the face of: Breakdown of economy, administration, service delivery Breakdown of civil and social infrastructure Rise in sick, maimed, and traumatized family members Possible loss of household assets Possible displacement from home

5 Adult men more likely to be killed in conflict Germany, 1950Cambodia, 1980 Source: Authors analysis based on data from United Nations Population Division (2006).

6 Source Blattman, C. & Annan, J. (2007), The consequences of child soldiering. Households in Conict Network Working Paper, 22 Educational attainment lost and labor market effects of child soldiers is substantial: Abducted youth attain 0.78 fewer years of education than non-abducted youth, which implies an 11% reduction in education attainment. Boys lifetime prospects can be affected by child soldiering

7 Women have to cope under very challenging conditions Males are subject to far higher excess mortality, injuries, and disability especially young adult males, so labor force heavily impacted Females also highly impacted: –Sexual violence –Left to cope with raising children and caring for the old, often in the face of: Breakdown of economy, administration, service delivery Breakdown of civil and social infrastructure Rise in sick, maimed, and traumatized family members Possible loss of household assets Possible displacement from home

8 PREMGE / DECRG work on the gender-differentiated impact of conflict To add rigorous studies of the gender-disaggregated impact of violent conflict on : human capital marriage and fertility labor force participation and economic empowerment There is little existing work in this area, and it is also often not gender-disaggregated

9 There are few rigorous studies on the micro-level impacts of violent conflict due to data constraints Large-scale, high quality household surveys often not available for countries affected by violent conflict. Where surveys available, methodological issues: often difficult to attribute causality selective nature of respondents: non-random attrition due to mortality, migration or displacement But recent work is finding innovative ways to resolve some of these issues

10 Emerging Evidence

11 Effects on human capital Affects child health higher mortality poorer growth Child schooling suffers

12 Child mortality can rise Source: Humberto, Lopez and Quentin Wodon, The Economic Impact of Armed Conflict in Rwanda, Journal of African Economies 14 (4): Impact of the Genocide on Child Mortality in Rwanda

13 Surviving children can have poorer growth outcomes Sources: Guerrero-Serdán, Gabriela The Effects of the War in Iraq on Nutrition and Health: An Analysis Using Anthropometric Outcomes of Children HiCN Working Paper 55; Bundervoet, Tom, Philip Verwimp, and Richard Akresh, Health and Civil War in Rural in Burundi, Journal of Human Resources 44(2): 536–563.; Akresh, Richard, Philip Verwimp, and Tom Bundervoet, Civil War, Crop Failure and Child Stunting in Rwanda, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No The effect is between to

14 Childrens schooling can suffer (sometimes more for girls) Sources: Chamarbagwala, Rubiana, and Hilcías E. Morán The Human Capital Consequences of Civil War: Evidence from Guatemala HiCN Working Paper 59; Shemyakina, Olga, The effect of armed conflict on accumulation of schooling: results from Tajikistan. Households in Conict Network Working Paper 12

15 Effects on marriage and fertility Disruptions of conflict can lead to: Postponement of marriage Postponed childbearing even if married Rebound in fertility after the conflict Shortage of men due to their higher mortality in conflict can lead to: High rates of non-marriage of women Increase in short-term consensual unions as male bargaining power higher Out-migration of single women to places with better opportunities

16 Effects on household economy Household economy disrupted: Loss of assets (destruction, looting, distress sale) Loss of working age men, rise in maimed Displacement from home Breakdowns in administration, services, infrastructure Shift to subsistence farming (in agrarian settings) Found to help maintain child nutrition indicators despite falling income Women take on role of breadwinner. Some options: Home-based work (subsistence farming, crafts with established market such as carpet-weaving in Afghanistan) New entrepreneurship providing services locally (e.g. tailoring) Training in new skills geared to meet existing demand / markets Attempts to build entrepreneurship in unestablished channels less likely to succeed under all the additional constraints of post-conflict life


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