1. Declining U.S. Internal Migration Rates

3. Mobility period Total, 1 year old and over Same residence (non-movers)Total movers Different residence in the United States TotalSame county Different county TotalSame StateDifferent State NUMBER 2009-2010300,074262,53437,54036,59426,01710,5776,2524,326 2008-2009297,182260,07737,10536,01724,98411,0346,3744,660 2007-2008294,851259,68535,16734,02223,01311,0096,2824,728 2006-2007292,749254,06838,68137,49025,19212,2987,4364,862 2005-2006289,781249,94539,83738,54124,85113,6908,0105,679 2004-2005287,148247,26139,88838,02322,73615,2877,8477,441 2003-2004284,367245,37238,99537,72322,55115,1727,8427,330 2002-2003282,556242,46340,09338,82423,46815,3567,7287,628 2001-2002278,160237,04941,11139,54823,71215,8368,0667,770 2000-2001275,611236,60539,00737,25121,91815,3337,5507,783 1999-2000270,219226,83143,38841,64224,39917,2428,8148,428 1998-1999267,933225,29742,63641,20725,26815,9398,4237,516 1997-1998265,209222,70242,50741,30427,08214,2227,8676,355 1996-1997262,976219,58543,39142,08827,74014,3487,9606,389 1995-1996260,406217,86842,53741,17626,69614,4808,0096,471 1994-1995258,248215,93142,31741,53927,90813,6317,8885,743 1993-1994255,774212,93942,83541,59026,63814,9528,2266,726 1992-1993250,210208,16242,04840,74326,21214,5327,7356,797 1991-1992247,380204,58042,80041,54526,58714,9577,8537,105 1990-1991244,884203,34541,53940,15425,15115,0037,8817,122 1989-1990242,208198,82743,38141,82125,72616,0948,0618,033 1988-1989239,793197,17342,62041,15326,12315,0307,9497,081 1987-1988237,431195,25842,17440,97426,20114,7727,7277,046 1986-1987235,089191,39643,69342,55127,19615,3558,7626,593 1985-1986232,998189,76043,23742,03726,40115,6368,6656,971 1984-1985230,333183,86346,47045,04330,12614,9177,9956,921 1983-1984228,232188,85339,37938,30023,65914,6418,1986,444 1982-1983225,874188,46537,40836,43022,85813,5727,4036,169 1981-1982223,719185,59238,12737,03923,08113,9597,3306,628 1980-1981221,641183,44238,20036,88723,09713,7897,6146,175

4. PeriodInterstateintercounty 1947-19480.0309410.06378 1948-19490.0302450.058033 1949-19500.0265690.056363 1950-19510.0350320.070658 1951-19520.0341130.066504 1952-19530.0362580.066633 1953-19540.0325440.064526 1954-19550.0310430.065994 1955-19560.0314720.067964 1956-19570.0310490.062808 1957-19580.0334840.067401 1958-19590.0298550.061765 1959-19600.0318190.064795 1960-19610.0326220.063769 1961-19620.0311060.061647 1962-19630.036580.068048 1963-19640.0327830.066348 1964-19650.0328720.068151 1965-19660.0330750.066213 1966-19670.0343250.067367 1967-19680.0363870.070566 1968-19690.0339320.066276 1969-19700.0357950.067457 1970-19710.0347370.065727 1971-1972 1972-1973 1973-1974 1974-1975 1975-1976/20.0296730.064015 1976-19770.0296730.064015 1980-19810.0280260.062584 1981-19820.0297710.0627 1982-19830.027430.060348 1983-19840.0283690.064454 1984-19850.0302350.065166 1985-19860.0300740.067455 1986-19870.0281820.065635 1987-19880.0298270.062532 1988-19890.0297110.063065 1989-19900.0333810.066878 1990-19910.0292490.061614 1991-19920.0288670.06077 1992-19930.0273080.058384 1993-19940.0264250.058744 1994-19950.0223060.052942 1995-19960.024980.055898 1996-19970.0244160.054832 1997-19980.0240710.05387 1998-19990.0282020.059808 1999-20000.0313920.064222 2000-20010.028420.055989 2001-20020.0280910.057253 2002-20030.0271180.054592 2003-20040.0258920.053593 2004-20050.0260830.053585 2005-20060.0196860.047455 2006-20070.0166760.04218 2007-20080.0160980.037483 2008-20090.0157380.037265 2009-20100.0144620.035359

5. Note: Different state 2004-05 7,441 major declines in each type 2005-06 5,679 2006-07 4,862 Different county, 2005-06 8,010 same state 2006-07 7,436 2007-08 6,282 Different county 2004-05 15,287 2005-06 13,690 2006-07 12,298 2008-09 11,009 Different residence 2004-05 22,736 but residential mobility 2005-06 24,851 increases 2006-07 25,192

6. Some Possible Reasons for the Recent Decline in U.S. Internal Migration Rates 1.The business cycle The current recession began at the end of 2007, but migration rates began to fall one or two years earlier. Moreover, even though the current recession has been much more serious than previous recessions, the drop in migration is somewhat smaller, according to MSW. Dismiss as a cause, according to MSW. The claim that the drop in migration is somewhat smaller during the current recession is open to question. check 1990-92 2000-02 1988-92 1978-83

7. MSW extrapolate trends in migration, 1996-2006 and 1986-2006. Based on the 10-year extrapolation, migration rates would have fallen 0.23 percentage points between 2007 and 2009. Based on the 20-year extrapolation, they would have fallen by 0.25 percentage points. They actually fell by 0.36 percentage points, so MSW claim that very little of the drop remains to be explained by the recession. This type of comparison I like. Still dismiss as a cause.

8. 2. The housing-market contraction This contraction occurred at about the same time as the drop in migration. What are the possible mechanisms? When housing prices drop, homeowners may find themselves upside down in their mortgages (owe more than the current value of their property). They become less likely to move. We have no specific evidence to support this hypothesis, so the rationale is very speculative. Falling house prices cause pessimism concerning future house prices, so renters do not buy homes and owners do not move up in terms of housing quality. Migration falls.Again, very speculative with no supporting empirical evidence.

9. Both hypotheses suggest that homeowner migration rates should have fallen more than those of renters. In percentage point terms, neither interstate nor intercounty rates fell more for homeowners. The percentage decline was larger for homeowners, but homeowners generally have lower migration rates than renters. Dismiss as a cause.

10. 3.Retirement migration is down Check the data for 2009-10 relative to 1999-2000. The big decline had not yet begun in 1999-2000.

11. Intercounty diff 1999-20 less 2009-10 Interstate diff 1999-20 less 2009-10Intercounty relative diffInterstate relative diff AGE 0.03330.01900.82820.4730 1 to 4 years 0.02960.01760.89690.5319 5 to 9 years 0.02770.01760.95460.6077 10 to 14 years 0.02700.01880.95940.6689 15 to 17 years 0.04360.02781.02340.6529 18 to 19 years 0.05570.03240.88570.5143 20 to 24 years 0.05800.02800.95920.4626 25 to 29 years 0.03280.01760.80600.4332 30 to 34 years 0.03120.01740.96700.5387 35 to 39 years 0.02610.01710.93360.6140 40 to 44 years 0.02150.01181.05630.5769 45 to 49 years 0.01580.00900.87490.5000 50 to 54 years 0.01690.01190.86640.6112 55 to 59 years 0.01840.01170.88250.5614 60 to 61 years 0.01070.01060.65090.6438 62 to 64 years -0.00100.0018-0.09530.1610 65 to 69 years 0.00950.00740.79740.6227 70 to 74 years 0.00970.00780.91960.7364 75 to 79 years 0.01450.00801.21020.6689 80 to 84 years 0.01000.00360.98510.3518 85+ years

12. Intercounty Intrastate 1999-20 Intercounty Intrastate 2009-10 Intrastate difference Interregional 1999- 20 Interregional 2009- 10 Interregional difference AGE 1 to 4 years 0.04390.02960.01430.01560.01070.0048 5 to 9 years 0.03210.02010.01210.01250.00810.0044 10 to 14 years 0.02690.01690.01010.01090.00630.0046 15 to 17 years 0.02380.01560.00820.01050.00420.0064 18 to 19 years 0.04590.03020.01580.01290.00750.0053 20 to 24 years 0.07220.04890.02340.02280.01480.0080 25 to 29 years 0.07240.04230.03000.02510.01550.0095 30 to 34 years 0.04610.03090.01520.01460.01200.0026 35 to 39 years 0.03420.02040.01380.01260.00760.0051 40 to 44 years 0.02550.01660.00890.00840.00580.0026 45 to 49 years 0.02370.01390.00980.00580.00460.0012 50 to 54 years 0.01860.01180.00680.00510.00440.0006 55 to 59 years 0.01700.01200.00500.00720.00420.0031 60 to 61 years 0.01620.00950.00670.00660.00510.0015 62 to 64 years 0.01180.01160.00010.00650.00290.0036 65 to 69 years 0.00800.0108-0.00280.00510.00430.0008 70 to 74 years 0.00890.00680.00210.00610.00200.0040 75 to 79 years 0.00920.00720.00190.00540.00130.0042 80 to 84 years 0.01140.00480.00650.00560.00170.0038 85+ years 0.01240.00600.00650.00640.00450.0019

13. All age classes are down. Retirement migration is down, and it is down slightly more than other age classes. However, in itself, retirement migration is not of sufficient magnitude to cause the overall rate to fall so substantially. Dismiss as a basic cause, but could be a slight contributing cause.

14. 4.Migration to the West is down substantially. 5. Migration to or from other regions is down substantially. Let’s look at the in- and out-migration experiences of the various regions before and after the decline in migration rates.

15. In-migration (thousands) to Northeast Midwest South West 1999-2000 363 722 1,258 764 2009-2010 246 414 897 631 (-32.2%) (-42.7%) (-28.7%) (-17.4%) Out-migration (thousands) from 1999-2000 615 640 1,031 819 2009-2010 376 637 698 477 (-38.9%) (-0.5%) (-32.3%) (-41.8%)

16. 4. In-migration to the West is down less than in-migration to the other regions. Dismiss as a cause. 5. However, out-migration from the West has fallen more than out-migration from any other region. Why might this have happened? Out-migration from the Midwest has hardly changed. What is happening in the Midwest to make its out-migration experience so different than the other regions?

17. Counterfactual based on 1980-1985 propensities; actual is 2000-2005 From To Counterfactual Actual Northeast Midwest 415 288 -30.6% South 1,524 1,512 - 0.8 West 518 514 - 0.8 Midwest Northeast 365 228 -37.5 South 2,177 1,382 -36.5 West 1,274 719 -43.6 South Northeast 873 710 -18.7 Midwest 1,145 930 -18.8 West 1,375 1,062 -22.8 West Northeast 353 352 - 0.3 Midwest 991 691 -30.3 South 1,607 1,230 -23.5 12,617 9,618 0.0473 0.0361 Something appears to be going on in the Midwest. Have the most mobile already departed? Has migration from rural areas diminished because the young and most mobile have already moved?

18. 6. The system has moved closer to being an equilibrium system. If this is the case, then presumably people have sorted themselves in such a way that migration is being driven by shocks to the system and by long- term trends that change the spatial pattern of economic opportunities and demands for location-specific amenities. Discuss the neoclassical model: movement of people and capital. This could be a cause, but I am skeptical because the migration-rate changes occurred over a very short span of time. Interregional migration has been occurring since the founding of the nation, and if this factor were driving the changes, we would, I think, expect the movement toward long- term equilibrium to have occurred gradually over a long period of time.

19. 7.Demographic change It is possible that changes in the age structure of the U.S. population have contributed to declining internal migration rates. If this were to have occurred, it most likely would have been due to population maturing out of the ages for which migration rates are highest (18-39). To test this hypothesis, I did a counterfactual. I distributed the 2009 population as it was age distributed in 1999. Then I applied 2009-10 migration rates to the hypothetical 2009 population. The result was almost no change in the national migration rate. Dismiss as a cause. However, over longer periods of time, demographics do matter. They also can matter over shorter periods of time, such as during the 1970s and 1980s when the baby boom was maturing into the most highly mobile age classes and later out of these age classes. The baby boom has now aged into relatively low migration-rate ages, and thus over short periods of time is unlikely to have much effect on national rates.

20. 8. Method of measuring migration. MSW discuss several migration data sources. In their work, they aggregate from microdata in order to avoid various measurement issues. This is a good practice. But does it avoid the so-called “hot deck” imputation procedures that some think have biased the migration rates down so severely in recent years? Open question. Bottom line: ????