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1 Surveys: Using LSMS, HBS, LFS and SILC for Poverty Analysis Rachel Smith-Govoni April 4, 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Surveys: Using LSMS, HBS, LFS and SILC for Poverty Analysis Rachel Smith-Govoni April 4, 2008."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Surveys: Using LSMS, HBS, LFS and SILC for Poverty Analysis Rachel Smith-Govoni April 4, 2008

2 2 Goals and Needs Goals: Measure the poverty impact of economic policy Measure the distributional impact of economic policy Needs: Rely heavily on household survey data

3 3 Household Surveys - types Single Topic Labour Force Surveys( LFS) (ILO) Census – national, 10 years – Serbia 2002 In-between Multi-topic

4 4 Household Surveys Single Topic In-between Agricultural Surveys (FAO) Demographic and Health (DHS) Household Budget Surveys (HBS) Multi-topic

5 5 Household Surveys Single Topic In-between Multi-topic Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey UNICEF Living Standards Measurement Study Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC, EU)

6 6 Census Accurate measure of the population of a country Geographic distribution of the population Basic demographic information Purpose

7 7 Census Not a sample Universal coverage No sampling errors in estimates Some corrections for non-response may be needed Not many items

8 8 Census Demographic information: age, sex, race/ethnicity, family and household composition Housing information Others: basic education, labour, disability Content

9 9 Census Limited monitoring Albania: 2001 (1989) BiH 1991 (1981) Montenegro 2003 (1991) Serbia 2002 Kosovo 1981 Limited use if looking at impact of policies affecting taxes, tariffs or pricing

10 10 Census Sample frame Link with household surveys for small area estimation (data mapping) Uses

11 11 Two types of errors: Sampling and non-sampling Cost Time Non-response Training

12 Sample size Sampling error Non-sampling error Sampling vs. non-sampling errors Total error

13 13

14 14

15 15 Labour Force Survey (Anketa o radnoj snazi – ARS) Direct measurement of unemployment General characteristics of the labour force Purpose

16 16 Labour Force Survey Relatively large samples Desire to disaggregate to different geographic areas Individuals of working age Sample

17 17 Labour Force Survey Characteristics of the labour force –Demographics –Education Sectoral distribution of employment Degree of formality Seasonal Income Content

18 18 Labour Force Survey Limitations: LFS typically capture partial, not total, income, under -estimate welfare Measurement Error - Labour income measurement error at both ends of the distribution

19 19 LFS in Latin America Item non-response SalariedSelf- employed Employer Mean non- response rate 3.9%10.2%12.0 Source: Feres, 1998

20 20 Household Budget Survey (Anketa o potrosnji domacinstava – APD, Inputs to National Accounts on consumer expenditures Track changes in expenditures over time Weights for the Consumer Price Index (Indeks Potrosackih Cijena)

21 21 Usually medium size sample High non-response rates Sample Non response rates ( Eurostat Household Budget Surveys, 2003) Bulgaria: 39.7% Estonia, 44% Hungary, 58.8% before replacement Romania, 21.6 %

22 22 Household Budget Surveys Total Income Total Consumption - diary Short Demographics Central Europe: agriculture Limited health and education Content

23 23 Household Budget Surveys Consumption based welfare measure Purpose of an HBS survey is NOT to measure welfare but to precisely measure mean expenditures on specific goods and services These are conflicting goals Poverty Measurement

24 24 Household Budget Surveys Shortest possible reference periods Minimize number of omitted expenditures Good for precise measurement of regional or national means Because of lumpy nature of purchases, not good for comparisons among households Poverty Measurement

25 25 Multi-topic Household Surveys Those with a focus on measuring poverty Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) Living Standards Measurement Study Surveys (LSMS)

26 26 Multi-topic Household Surveys Analysis of welfare levels and distribution Study links between welfare levels and individual and household characteristics, economic, human and social capital Social exclusion Levels of access to, and use of, social services, government programs and spending Purpose

27 27 Multi-topic Household Surveys Small sample sizes Trade-off issue: Quality and cost considerations Limits ability to assess programs or policies that affect small groups or small areas (over- sample) Infrequent in many countries Sample

28 28 LSMS 2002, 2003, 2007 Content 1 household composition 2 housing 3 individual demographics 4 health 5 labour 6 work history 7 social programs 8 migration 9 values and opinions 10 consumption 11 agriculture

29 29 Multi-topic Household Surveys Total consumption –Longer reference periods –Able to calculate use value of durables and housing Total income –Suffers from standard measurement errors Poverty Measurement

30 30 Designs for surveys across time Repeated cross sectional surveys (e.g. Household Budget Survey, Labour Force Survey) Common design for large government surveys New sample drawn for each survey Carry similar questions each year Used for trend analysis at aggregate level

31 31 Designs for surveys across time Cohort Studies Sample often based on an age group Follow up same sample members at fairly long intervals Developmental data as well as social and economic data Data from parents, teachers associated with cohort member

32 32 Designs for surveys across time e.g. Panel Study of Income Dynamics, USA – since 1968! Living in BiH , LSMS Albania , LSMS Serbia Draw a sample at one point in time and follow those sample members indefinitely (or as long as the funding continues) Collect individual level data in household context Repeated measures at fixed intervals ( annual data collection)

33 33 Advantages of Panel Data Comparison of same individual over time - outcomes Track of aspects of social change Facilitates study of change and causal inference Minimise the problem of inaccurate recall Compare a persons expectations with real change Look at how changes in individuals behaviour affects their households Identifies the co-variates of change and the relative risks of particular events for different types of people

34 34 Changes in Employment Status A: CROSS-SECTIONAL INFORMATION Unemployed Employed Net change - 0.1% unemployed

35 35 Changes in Employment Status B: PANEL INFORMATION Still Unemployed Still Employed Unemployed Employed Net change - 0.1% unemployedActual change is 10.1 continuously employed 86.7% employed 2001 but unemployed % continuously unemployed 3.2% unemployed 2001 but employed %

36 36 Balkan Examples Albania - 15% of the unemployed in 2002 had made the transition to formal sector employment by 2004 BiH - About half who were poor in 2001 remained poor in Many individuals moved out of poverty. (Cross section headcount 18% for both years)

37 37 Employment and the labour market Unemployment duration and exit rates Do the unemployed find stable employment? The effect of non-standard employment on mental health Temporary jobs: who gets them, what are they worth, and do they lead anywhere? Family and Household Patterns of household formation and dissolution Breaking up - finances and well-being following divorce or split The effect of parents employment on children's educational attainment

38 38 A Sample Concept of longitudinal household problematic for a panel - households change in composition over time or disappear altogether Individual level sample

39 39 Following rules All members of households interviewed at Wave One Children born to these original sample members Original members are followed as they move house, and any new individuals who join with them are eligible to be interviewed New sample members are followed if they split from the original member

40 40 Questionnaire design Core content carried every wave Rotating core questions One-off variable components –lifetime job history –marital and fertility history Variable questions to respond to new research and policy agendas

41 41 Attrition in panel surveys Inevitable to some extent but can be minimised Multiple sources of attrition in a panel –refusal to take part –respondents move and cannot be traced –non-contacts Worry is potential bias if people who drop out differ significantly from those who stay in

42 42 UK Panel Wave 1 Respondents Wave-on wave re-interview rates

43 43 Fieldwork respondent incentives as a thank-you extended fieldwork period for tail-enders refusal conversion programme tracking procedures during fieldwork panel maintenance between waves –Change of Address cards to update addresses –mailing of Respondent Report –details of contacts with respondents between waves

44 44 The user database Longitudinal data is complex Provide users with database structure which enhances usability Consistent record structure over time Key variables for matching and linking data cross wave Consistent variable naming conventions

45 45 Conclusions Longitudinal panel data allows us to answer research questions that cannot be answered with with cross-sectional data Provides a different view of the world - see process through the life-course not just a static picture Is complex (but so is the real world) - so needs to be well designed and conducted with sufficient resources to be successful

46 46 Finalpoints Final points Welfare: household surveys- always missing the homeless, street children, institutionalized population No one survey can meet all needs, review its purpose, coverage, content and quality before using Need a system of surveys that meets the needs of data users

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