1. NOT FOR ATTRIBUTION; FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY

2. Climate Change in the Philippines A Contribution to the Country Environmental Analysis World Bank CEA Workshop Manila, June 16-17, 2008 Maria Fernanda Garcia Rincón Felizardo K. Virtucio, Jr.

3. Outline Greenhouse emissions Climate change impacts in the Philippines The Philippines response so far to climate change issues The way forward on climate change in the Philippines

4. Snapshot of Greenhouse emissions Source: CAIT, WRI 2008

5. Climate Change Impacts in the Philippines Vulnerability, Risks and Threats Climate Variability > precipitation, temperature, and sea level changes Sector Impacts > agriculture, forestry and lands > coastal areas, fisheries and marine resources > water resources > health

6. Vulnerability, Risks and Threats High vulnerability to natural disasters Expect: more frequent occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events The poor at risk: high poverty incidence; most poor in natural hazard prone areas or dependant of natural resources at risk

7. Climate Variability IPCC 4First National Communication Temperature 0.2º C per decade GHG @ 2000 level 0.1ºC 2-3º C with doubling CO2 Precipitation high altitudes sub-tropical region Depending on location: 100%; 50%; or Sea Level 0.19-0.59 m (1990-2100) 100 cm with doubling CO2 will innundate 129k ha

8. Impact on agriculture, forestry, and land Land degradation reduces productivity, and changes in land-use in turn increase emissions 1990-2000: 3.3% rice production lost as a consecuence of typhoons, floods, drought. El Nino (97-98) resulted in 6.6% GDP in agriculture production Degraded land causes migration to less productive land Loss of subsistence-based livelihoods: 35% of labor force depends on sector 55.9% of CO2 emissions from land use & forestry (2000) Loss of biodiversity due to habitat destruction

9. Impact on coastal areas, fisheries and marine resources Sea level rise puts at risk coastal activities (e.g., aquaculture) & infrastructure 60% of the population depends on marine resources Coral reefs contribute about $1.4 billion per year and accounted for 10 to 15 percent of total annual fish yield Only 5-10% of mangroves and coral reefs in excellent condition Decrease of up to 46% in live coral cover after the 1997- 98 bleaching event; highly bleached areas coincided with areas of poverty and dense populations Loss of biodiversity due to habitat destruction thus affecting fisheries

10. Impact on water resources SLR increases salinity/undrinkability of water (evident in nearly 28 percent of coastal municipalities in Luzon, 20 percent in the Visayas, and almost 29 percent in Mindana) Lead to 17% in wet season streamflow & 35% in dry season streamflow in Pantabangan-Carranglan watershed (Lasco et al 2006).

11. Impact on health Indicative trend that there is 10% to 58% association between climate change and health. Further research needed (1 Nat. Com.). May impact: under nutrition, cardio-respiratory diseases, dengue and especially affect diarrheal diseases and malaria(IPCC4) In 1998 malaria and other diseases increased significantly as a consecuence of El Niño

12. The Philippines response so far to climate change issues Policy and legal initiative Organizational Partnerships with International Organizations Mitigation initiatives Adaptation initiatives

13. Response: Policy and legal Philippine Strategy for Sustainable Development (1991) Rio Earth Summit and Philippine Agenda 21 (1992) UNFCCC ratification (1994) First National Communication on Climate Change (2000) Kyoto Protocol ratification (2003) Bio-Fuel Act (2006)

14. Response: Organizational PCSD1992Chart environment and sustainable development NDCC1978Policymaker on matters pertaining to disasters IACCC1991Coordinate CC related policies & prepare position to UNFCCC PTFCC2007Address and mitigate impact of CC: energy and deforestation

15. Response: Mitigation 2004-2010 MTPDP: participation in clean development mechanism (CDM) and carbon market; mitigation in Agribusiness chapter 2004 to 2013 Philippine Energy Plan – new and renewable energy development and promotion Clean Development Mechanism – reducing GHGs through carbon trading: 14 projects registered as of 10 September 2007 expected to prevent emission of 359,718 tons of CO2 equivalent per year, that is <1% of annual CO2 emissions Bio-Fuel Act (2006)

16. Response: Adaptation 2004-2010 MTPDP: disaster risk reduction; adaptation in Agribusiness chapter; Green Philippine chapter 2007 Albay Declaration Sparse mention in laws and planning documents Fragmented adaptation measures especially in vulnerable areas where most of the poor live Poor public awareness of impact of CC

17. Response: Partnerships Activity focus : most on capacity building at the level of National Government Strategy focus : most on climate change mitigation - air pollution reduction in urban areas; CBFM in rural areas Sector focus : energy Area focus : urban areas

18. Mainstreaming climate change? Lasco et al (2007) interviewed 83 policymakers and scientists and found: About 95% thought mainstreaming climate change is important Nearly 59% thought climate change had not been mainstreamed Why? Lack of understanding/appreciation of CC, lack of political will, lack of funding.

19. Way forward At the national level: Formulate a Climate Change Framework Covering both mitigation and adaptation Oversight sectors agencies, LGUs and private sector on how to mainstream climate change in policies, etc Promote climate resilient policies, programs, projects and institutional capacity development More adaptation is needed!

20. Way forward (cont) At the local level: Mainstream climate change in LGUs 5-year development and investment plans Address short planning horizon of local executives Other policies: Improve the access to and affordability of CC mitigation and adaptation technologies Further mobilize and diversify climate risk management and financing schemes

21. Take home message The Philippines is a minor emitter but mayor adaptor Highly vulnerable to climate change To date most focus has been on mitigation especially in the energy and transport sector More focus on adaptation is needed

22. Mabuhay!