2Confronting the Challenges of Gender Equality and Fragile States Main messagesBrusselsMay 11, 2007
3Significant progress toward MDG1 Figure 1.1: Share of people living on less than $1 or $2 a day (%)(with estimates for 2004 and projection for 2015)Significant progress toward MDG1Globally MDG1 is on track (2015 forecast HCI=12%).Source: World Bank staff estimates (weighted averages)
4Regional progress differs sharply Figure 1.1: Share of people living on less than $1 or $2 a day (%)(with estimates for 2004 and projection for 2015)Regional progress differs sharplyEast Asia has already surpassed the MDG1 target. Sub-Saharan Africa lags well behind the target.Share of people living on less than $1 or $2 a day (%) – East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa(with estimates for 2004 and projection for 2015)Source: World Bank staff estimates (weighted averages)
5The pace of poverty reduction depends on more than growth * China: Burkina Faso: Brazil: Mozambique:India: Nigeria: Laos: Peru:Source: World Bank – Development Economics
6But also cautionary notes… Risks to positive outlook – unwinding of global imbalances (US trade deficit), pandemic, oil price volatility.Environmental sustainability: growth for many is through depleting their natural assets.Fragile states are being left out: weak growth, little progress with poverty reduction, persistent fragilityUnadjusted and Adjusted Net SavingsFigure presents the calculation of adjusted net saving in Bolivia in 2003
7Lagging growth performance in fragile states Defined by weak governance and institutions; often affected by conflict.Fragile states have consistently grown more slowly than other low-income countries.State fragility has proven to be a persistent condition—21 of the 34 states judged as fragile in 1980, were still viewed as such in 2005.
8Advancing the MDGs--Fragile states are least likely to meet MDG1 Extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Fragile states35 states—home to 9% (500 million) of the developing world’s population and 27% of its extreme poor.State fragility has proven to be a persistent condition—21 of the 34 states judged as fragile in 1980, were still viewed as such in 2005.Impact beyond borders.Pose a dilemma for development community.
9Fragile states are the least likely to meet the MDGs Facing the largest MDG gap; 27% of extreme poor; nearly 1/3 of child deaths and children not completing school; ¼ of the HIV positive populationReforms approved for rapid response procedures, organization and staffing (WB).Need to implement these reforms, strengthen international partnerships, and deepen lessons on approaches.Sources: World Bank Staff estimates
10The Role of Quality in MDG Progress Message 1: Accelerating progress on HD MDGs, but not enough to meet the goalsAll regions – and 80% of countries -- off track on child mortality goalSouth Asia off track on all goalsSub-Saharan Africa off track on all goals…but some countries in every region showing exceptional resultsMozambique, Cambodia, Benin, Rwanda and Niger in primary completionTimor Leste, Vietnam, Bhutan, Mongolia and Eritrea on child mortalityIncrease in ART access (Botswana, Kenya, South Africa and Uganda have reached 50% of those in need) and declining HIV prevalence in some countriesMalawi and Namibia on track to water target; Senegal on sanitation
11ODA for HD is increasing …especially in health Message 2: ODA for HD has increased, but unevenprogress on harmonizationODA for HD is increasing …especially in health
12EFA FTI is fostering harmonization and alignment in education… but these remain key issues in health In Rwanda, only 14% of donor health funding is channeled through MOH and 12% through health districts: 74% managed by donors directly85% of reported health funding goes to AIDS and malariaAid flows are highly volatile, due to mostly 1-2 year commitmentsLimited funding for health system strengthening and investments outside health
13Pro-poor progress on primary completion… Message 3: The poor are benefiting from MDG progress,especially in educationPro-poor progress on primary completion…
14Child mortality progress less likely to reach the poor…
15Message 4: A stronger focus on quality is needed even while scaling up quantity In India, a 2005 nationwide survey conducted by Pratham showed 68% of children in grades 2-5 could not read a very short paragraphIn Peru, 46% of children at the end of 2nd grade in 2005 could not read a single word of a first grade text in 2005In rural Kenya, 30% of 2nd and 3rd graders unable to read any words in a first grade text in 2006In rural Cameroun, 80% of 3rd grade students in 2005 could not read a single word of a first grade text
16We lack good measures, but too many children are failing to learn….
17New research also shows quality issues in health: a competence/practice gap In Tanzania in 2004, 67% of clinicians mistreated TB and 24% mistreated malariaIn India, doctors completed only about 20% of recommended protocol for diagnosing TB and child illnessesInstitutional setting makes a difference – doctors in autonomous facilities perform betterContracting for results in Cambodia, Argentina, Afghanistan, Rwanda shows promise
18Stronger focus on quality needed in both education and health No evidence of an inherent “tradeoff” between access and quality over long termGlobally, highest performing education and health systems have broadest accessExtending basic services to all crucial for equity, long-term social stability, and economic gains from human developmentBut closer monitoring of quality needed as countries scale upMeasure quality in terms of results:outputs (level of patient service delivered and instructional time) and outcomes (student learning, health outcomes).Inputs (qualification levels, numbers of clinics) don’t guarantee resultsCreate incentives aligned with qualityInternational support to develop a globally-benchmarked learning assessment relevant for developing countriesSupport experimentation and evaluation of “contracting for performance” in health
19Gender equality is measured in 3 domains: Leveling the field of opportunitiesGender equality in rights, resources and voiceHouseholdHousehold resource and task allocationsFertility decisionsEconomy & marketsAccess to landFinancial servicesLabor marketsTechnologySocietyCivic and political participationDomain of choices,Domain of policyAggregate economic performance(poverty reduction, growth)
20Increased equality has intrinsic and instrumental value Increased gender equality in households, markets and societyMother’s greater control over decision-making in householdsWomen have better access to marketsWomen have better education and healthIncreased women’s labor force participation, productivity and earningsImproved children’s well-beingBetter health and educational attainment & greater productivity as adultsIncome / consumption expenditureDifferential savings rateFuture poverty reduction and economic growthCurrent poverty reduction and economic growth
21Gender equality is about fairness, opportunity, and smart economics Tracking gender equality over time:Importance: Intrinsic value; economic value; broader linkages to developmentPerformance: Major gains in enrollment parity: 83 of 106 countries by Elsewhere performance lags: labor force participation, political representation.Monitoring: Need for better indicators and greater monitoring effort.Mainstreaming: requires realistic goals; leadership, technical expertise and financing.SSAEAPECALCRMNASAR.51Share of womenFemale to Male RatioFemale to Male ratio in (S) SecondaryPar: Proportion Seats held by women in Parliament20051990Source: World Bank Indicators. The regional averages are calculated using the earliest value sandwiched between 1990 and 1995 and the latest value between 2000 and The averages are weighted by the country population size in 2005.
22Official MDG indicators do not fully monitor gender equality and empowerment They exclude important elements of gender equality such as health.They poorly measure gender equality in education, employment and political participation.They monitor performance on national averages which can mask inequality within countriesSource: Duryea, Galiani, Nopo and Piras (2006)
23Recommended additional indicators for MDG3 HouseholdEconomy and marketsModifications of official MDG indicatorsAdditional indicatorsPrimary completion rate of girls and boys (MDG 2)Percentage of year-old girls who are mothers or pregnant with their first childLabor force participation rates among women and men aged and 25–49Under five mortality rate for girls and boys (MDG 4)Percentage of reproductive-age women, and their sexual partners, using modern contraceptives (MDG 6)
24Monitoring child mortality reveals additional problem regions Female under-5 mortality rate and female to male ratio, 2004Source: World Population Prospects 2004.
25The unfinished agendaClosing gaps in well-being and opportunities for girls and women in disadvantaged sub-groups within nations.Giving priority to Sub-Saharan Africa.Paying special attention to MDG3 issues in fragile states.Scaling up collection of sex disaggregated data to measure progress (especially, in the domains of society and the market and economy).
26Aid quality and scaling up: actions lag commitments DAC Members’ ODA: and prospectsODA:Dimming prospects for scaling up aid.aid concentration—most are not seeing increases.aid quality—increasing fragmentation; earmarking; lack of predictability, inadequate ‘flexible aid’.Scaling-up: opportunities exist—a range of reforming countries is well positioned to absorb scaled-up aid; the challenge is to establish an effective mechanism for scaling up.Source: OECD DAC.
27.… especially in Sub-Saharan Africa At the Gleneagles Summit, G-8 leaders promised to double aid to Africa by 2010:Nearly two years later, that increase in not translating into actual increasesSSA is seeing little new aid beyond debt relief.Aid to Africa (excl. Nigeria) declined in 2005; preliminary data show that these flows stagnated in 2006.Evolution of net ODA to SSA
28Donor focus on fragile states is increasing, but much remains to be done Aid per capita by type of country groupAn improving trend in aid to fragile statesIn 2005, aid rose by more than two-thirds to nearly $20 billion (in 2004 dollar terms); aid flows continue to be volatile, however.Aggregate trends mask the wide variation across different types of fragile states: postconflict states typically receive more aid than other fragile states.Much remains to be done to improve development effectiveness in fragile statesInternational actors need to adopt “whole of government” approaches—those that require close collaboration between economic, development, diplomatic, and security actors.Donor agencies’ capacity to respond quickly to changing environments needs to be strengthened.Source: OECD DAC database and staff estimates.Data exclude India. Aid is net ODA less humanitarian aid and debt relief.
29Donor support for gender equality: the way forward Gender equality focus of bilateral ODA by sector ( )A quarter of all bilateral ODA allocated by sector has a gender focus.Despite strong policy commitments to gender equality, implementation has been disappointing.The way forward:selectivity in gender mainstreamingresults orientation with strengthened M&Estronger organizational arrangements for gender-specific actions and mainstreaming.- synergies with aid effectiveness agendaSource: OECD DAC.Not all donors report the gender focus of their aid.
30The global aid architecture is becoming more complex More coherence among donors, developing countries and IFIs needed:profusion of aid channels—newly emerging donors, private foundations, global vertical fundsaid fragmentation—large number of aid vehicles and small average size of funded activitiesThe initial situation regarding H&A is modestThe Baseline Survey on Monitoring the Paris Declaration finds that:- only 24% of missions were jointly undertaken and around half of country analytic work was joint- only a third of countries have PFM systems that are moderately strong or better (score of 4 or higher) and less than 40% of aid uses partners’ PFM system or procurement systemsParticipants need to do more to operationalize the Paris framework.The Paris Principles address some of the challenges to making aid more effective, but more is needed to achieve coherence in the aid architecture.
31Role and performance of IFIs is under pressure Lending: Demand for loans increased in 2006; but future of concessional capacity in question (MDB share of aid? MDRI impact?).Management for results: sustained focus but slow progress.Gender equality: more focus (e.g., GAP) but implementation lags design; and mainstreaming needs accountability.Fragile states: need for more resources in balance with country capacity.
32Summary of key messages Growth is reducing poverty, but not everywhere or always sustainably; many countries are failing to benefit, especially fragile states.On the HD front quality lags quantity—children enroll in school but don’t always learn.Investing in gender equality and empowerment of women is smart economics—better monitoring and mainstreaming of women’s empowerment and equality into policy formulation and aid programs are vital to the development agenda.Fragile states are failing to keep up—speed and staffing by development agencies are critical. As well, there is need to pay special attention to MDG3 issues in fragile states.Scaling up actions lag commitments of more and better aid; scaling up “quality” aid requires greater coherence among donors, developing countries, and international agencies.
33Thank youThe GMR and related materials are available at: