Presentation on theme: "ECA: New Frontiers in Achieving Results * Plenary April 1, 2008, Improving the Lives of People in ECA Vinod Thomas, Director-General Independent Evaluation."— Presentation transcript:
ECA: New Frontiers in Achieving Results * Plenary April 1, 2008, Improving the Lives of People in ECA Vinod Thomas, Director-General Independent Evaluation Group * This presentation is based on IEGs recent evaluation findings. Ann Flanagan and Jiro Tominaga contributed to its preparation.
Progress and shortfalls in world development Per capita economic growth averaged 2% word-wide, 4% in developing countries and 6% in ECA (2000-06) Income levels diverged across countries, but converged across populations (due to rising income in populous China and India) Social indicators – infant mortality, school enrollment – tended to converge worldwide since 1990 The proportion of the poor declined since 1990, but the absolute number of poor is still around 1 billion Environmental degradation continued to rise everywhere -- especially pollution, land degradation, deforestation Progress in corruption has been slow in most countries, while stronger in ECA (1999-2006)
…. but with program disconnects Summary Result Matrix Satisfactory CAE Unsatisfactory CAE Satisfactory Portfolio 58.8%29.4% Unsatisfactory Portfolio 5.9% Summary Result Matrix Satisfactory CAE Unsatisfactory CAE Satisfactory Portfolio 55.8%35.1% Unsatisfactory Portfolio 2.6%6.5% World BankECA Source: Staff calculations based on IEG project ratings (IEG Database) and IEG CAE ratings (1985-2006)
2. Private sector can complement outcomes Development outcome and IFCs profitability (ECA) Additionality and project development results (ECA) Note: ECA region by number of projects based on 178 projects from 1996-2007 XPSRs.
Need public-private coordination for better results IEG reports document crucial gaps in WB-IFC collaboration, but there are examples of linkages: Leasing: IFC leasing projects and technical assistance contributed to the Banks rural agriculture leasing projects in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Ukraine BTC pipeline: In Azerbaijan the Bank focused on transparency and fiscal management while IFC concentrated on mobilizing consortium, social and environmental sustainability and SME linkages. Sub-national finance: The Bank maintained relationships with regional governments. IFC added value with its ability to finance without a sovereign guarantee.
3. Knowledge, lending and transition AAA rated as moderately effective or better in influencing government decisions by 2/3 of the MIC report client respondents: e.g., Ukraines WTO accession process Integration with country strategies: knowledge services provided entry for relationship with the government on public sector reform Knowledge-led strategies: QAG ratings of AAA programs in 8 countries with high budgets for knowledge lower than those with lower shares of AAA Difficult to use AAA on its own as a strategic instrument Some countries to agree on cost-sharing for AAA based on multi-year program – Kazakhstan JERP IEGs forthcoming AAA evaluation: 12 cases including Romania and Serbia. Role in informing Bank strategy? Link to lending? When AAA can be decoupled from lending? Adequacy of results framework and follow up in AAA? Source: IEG, Development Results in Middle-Income Countries; and Evaluation of World Bank Support for Public Sector Reform
Lending & policy: PSR lending, CPIA 99-06 ECA has the highest rate of CPIA governance score improvements for countries getting PSR lending The rate of improvement for non- borrowers is almost as high External factors e.g. EU accession may be in play PSR Loan YesNo AFR70%(30)47%(15) EAP70%(10)56%(9) ECA90%(20)86%(7) LCR75%(20)25%(8) MNA57%(7)0%(2) SAR50%(6)0%(1) Total73%(93)48%(42) Source: WB CPIA Scores and IEG staff calculations Note: Total number of countries in parenthesis
4. Regional/global and country programs With the growing importance of trans-border issues, regional programs (such as building swifter trade routes Southeast Europe) and global programs (such as GEF) have vast potential At $3.5 billion in 2006, regional programs account for less than 1 percent of the Banks total project and partnership financing. Effectiveness hampered by lack of connection between country programs and regional/global initiatives. M&E especially weak in regional and global programs Source: IEG, Annual Report on Operations Evaluation 2004 and 2005.
II Role of M&E in the results agenda Source: IEG Database
Results chain and program effectiveness A well articulated results chain would (ARDE 2006): Results-based CASs, if done well, puts the focus on how projects add up to country impact Emphasize realism in setting objectives – a problem in 50% of Country Assistance Strategies (FY2001-FY2005) evaluated by IEG Track key synergies across sectors – for example, infrastructure for education results or environment for health results Focus on capacity building – after all, country M&E determine the application of a results chain in countries
ECA s experience in M&E Performance-based budgeting of various types being followed in Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, Russia, Slovenia and Turkey Especially EU accession countries are following OECD standards; some are becoming donors -- Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland and the Russian Federation. Greater accountability requires M&E capacity Projects: The South East European trade and transport facilitation project introduced electronic forms showing duties due. Turkey brought extra-budgetary funds (that had undermined fiscal discipline) into the budget and parliamentary scrutiny
Impact evaluation can strengthen M&E IE can promote or question programs – a crucial role of knowledge Found the T&V extension system used in Kenyan agriculture to have no impact on agricultural production It tracks linkages across sectors – including unintended and indirect Showed the linkage between a nutrition program in Bangladesh and secondary schooling for girls education It de-politicizes decision-making – contributes to sustainability Evidence-based case for the Mexican Opportunidades program made it difficult for politicians to discontinue support for after change of government Initiatives at the Bank: Development Impact Evaluation Initiative; IFC Advisory Services Impact Evaluation Initiative; Spanish World Bank Trust Fund for Impact Evaluation; African Impact Evaluation Initiative; IEG Impact Evaluation Program Challenges ahead: be demand-driven; enter programs ex ante; be theory based; focus IE on the most relevant issues
ECA lags in impact evaluation Source: IEG staff calculations (draft), DIME Database and Poverty Impact Evaluations Database Note: The Poverty Impact Evaluations Database contains evaluations conducted by both Bank and Non-Bank staff.
Four cutting edge challenges in ECA Project-program: Especially where Bank lending share is small, there is a premium on exploiting linkages across projects and sectors for the greatest country impact Public-private: It is vital to develop public-private partnerships and to make the most of public and private linkages Knowledge-lending: The knowledge-lending axis is exploited differently across countries Country-global: The country-based approach must be reformed to integrate tough issues of climate change, governance, migration…