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2/13/2014 1 Engineering & Technology Management Group The Delta Forum 2003 Operating within a Risk Averse Aerospace Environment – Coping with the Unknown.

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Presentation on theme: "2/13/2014 1 Engineering & Technology Management Group The Delta Forum 2003 Operating within a Risk Averse Aerospace Environment – Coping with the Unknown."— Presentation transcript:

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2 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group The Delta Forum 2003 Operating within a Risk Averse Aerospace Environment – Coping with the Unknown Sponsored by the AIAA Engineering & Technology Management Group Session Chair: JoAnne Rocker Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Systems Engineering ManagementHistory Society Legal Aspects Economics LogisticsSupply Chain Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development

3 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Introduction – Carolyn Griner, ETM Director Risk Acceptance and Society at Large –Tim Howard, Society & Aerospace Technology TC Balancing Technology Risk and the Return on Investment –Paul Collopy, Economics TC Legal Considerations Affecting Risk Acceptance –Scott Johnson, Legal Aspects TC Risk Mitigation through Knowledge Management –Joanne Rocker, Technical Information TC Risk Mitigation and System Integration –Peter Rutledge, Systems Engineering TC Multidisciplinary Design Optimization as a Powerful Risk Mitigation Tool –Achille Messac, MultiDisciplinary Design TC Integrating Risk Management –Richard Raiford, ManagementTC Panel Discussion – All Speakers Overview

4 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Our Groups TCs examine the issues affecting the aerospace industry in the areas of Engineering and Technology Management –Our disciplines include: Economics History Legal Aspects Logistics Management Multidisciplinary Design Optimization Product Development Risk Management Societal Aspects Supply Chain Management Systems Engineering Technical Information Introduction

5 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Our purpose today is to examine a single issue affecting the aerospace industry, from the several perspectives of the various disciplines within the Group This years theme addresses the change in how the aerospace industry accepts the risks inherent in our technologies, to develop, integrate, and deliver goods and services in a global marketplace Our speakers come from across the industry to address topics in –Risk and Society –Intellectual Property –Investment –Knowledge Management –Systems Engineering –Mutlidisciplinary Design –Aerospace Management Our panel at the end will draw together the separate perspectives in response to your questions Introduction

6 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Risk Acceptance And Society at Large Tim Howard Society & Aerospace Technology TC Topic 1

7 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Overview Historical Perspective of Risk Societys Response to Risk Society, Risk and Aerospace Aerospace, Risk and Society Against the Gods; The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter L. Bernstein

8 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Risk The word risk derives from the early Italian risicare, which means to dare. (Bernstein)

9 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development A Historical Perspective of Risk Before 1200s - Gambling, Arabic numbers & Fibonacci (1, 2, 3, 5, 8) The Renaissance –1500s – Cardano, gambling & probability –1600s – Pascal & Fermat – Probability; Graunt & statistical sampling – London population tables 1700s –Daniel Bernoulli: information quality & utility value –De Moivre – normal distribution & standard deviation (The Bell Curve) –Insurance & the coffee houses – Lloyds 1875 – Galton & Regression to the Mean (sweetpeas) 1900s –The Rationality Debate –Uncertainty & failure of invariance – same problem presented differently results in different choices

10 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Societys Response to Risk Until 1960s, prevailing idea is that individuals are naturally risk averse 1960s - Loss aversion more powerful motivation than risk aversion – we hate to lose, and will take the gamble to avoid a sure loss –Aerospace losses often more catastrophic, and more sensational than other technology or system losses Risk tolerance increases in relation to our attitudes about the future Issue presentation key to the acceptance or rejection of risk and hence loss Need to identify societys level of acceptable loss Version A: $30 to start; Choices are coin flip with heads = wins $9, tails = lose $9; no flip = keep the $30 Possible outcomes are $21, $30, $39 70% choose to flip coin Version B: $0 to start; Choices are coin flip with heads = wins $39, tails = wins $21; no flip = given $30 Possible outcomes are $21, $30, $39 43% choose to flip coin

11 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Societys Response to Risk Society needs risk to grow; historical outlets are exploration and commerce –Exploration & development of old frontiers driven by commercial needs for new markets The Phoenicians, Columbus, The British Empire 10,000 years of maritime technologies enabled exploration and commerce <500 years of risk management to improve probability of success Insurance, economic forecasting, investment strategies

12 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Society, Risk and Aerospace The first century of flight made us the new risk outlet for societal growth –Air travel, cargo movement, satellite systems and information transport fundamental to the success of the new global economy –We enable exploration and development Shackleton, Byrd, & the 19 th century frontier Space is the new frontier for human exploration & commercial development –100 years of aerospace technologies available to support the need to grow –New fields use risk management to improve probability of success (National defense, air traffic control, space launch) –We develop new technologies and new applications of existing technologies to provide social growth

13 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Aerospace, Risk and Society Our industry was founded by risk takers; now we operate in a risk- averse mode –Societal growth stunted, or turned inwards; not the natural process We need to place our mean to the right of where we are, and start regressing – we need to take more risks –Rejuvenate our industry –Rekindle interest in our profession –Reclaim technology leadership role society needs us to play IT can only give us a virtual frontier; we have already delivered the real thing We need to embrace our role as the new enabler of societal growth –Its time for a fresh deck of cards…

14 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Risk … if we dare

15 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Topic 2 Risk and the Return on Investment Paul D. Collopy Economics Technical Committee

16 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Two Messages Managers: Embrace Risk –Eliminate unnecessary downside risk –Know what you are signing up for –Use strategies like hedging to improve risk+return Analysts: Dont lose sight of the Fundamentals –E[NPV] is the basic metric (return) –Adjust for risk aversion when > 4% Equity otherwise never trade E[NPV] for

17 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Risk Mitigation Great idea, if there is no cost –in product performance –in development time Risk free development Sunset Industry Performance > SoA = Technical Risk Everybody lovesbut

18 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development What is Risk? Risk = Uncertainty Risk Combat Range Combat Range Low Risk Program

19 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Military Aerospace Development Years Concept Studies Tech Development Dem / Val E & MD Production Entry into Service Careful Risk Mitigation ensures the system will achieve obsolescence and military irrelevance upon entry into service

20 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Venture Star

21 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Caveats Choose your Battles Hope for Success / Plan for Failure Do not Bet the Company

22 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Choose your Battles Risks Interact: ~ 5 Technical Risks can be managed at once Use Spiral Development for more ambitious programs 0 1 Average Probability of Failure Development Cost or Schedule Diseconomy of Scale

23 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Hope for Success / Plan for Failure Quote expected performance Plan backup designs –Low risk Prepare to take a performance hit There is always next time

24 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Betting the Company 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 0%4%8%12%16%20% % of Equity Value / Equity Typical Business Value of Money Neutral Attitude to Risk 16 u$. 0 e $ Risks < 4% equity: value = avg. return For Risk = 20% eq. business is strongly risk averse

25 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Using the Value of Money Curve 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 0%4%8%12%16%20% % of Equity Value / Equity p 1 - p - 8% + 8% Arbitrary Base Point Downside Upside = 3% Downside =5% Value of deal = 3%p + 5%(1-p) Upside

26 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Summary Risk has upside and downside Risk-free designs condemn the industry to mediocrity Good risks need to be managed not mitigated

27 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Legal Considerations Affecting Risk Acceptance R. Scott Johnson Legal Aspects of Aerospace TC McKee, Voorhees & Sease, LLP Topic 3

28 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development What is risk? Potential for

29 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Negligence Duty Breach of Duty Injury Causation

30 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Negligence Duty –Generally: Exercise Reasonable Care Breach of Duty Injury Causation

31 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Negligence Duty –Specifics: Statutes, Rules, and Regulations Breach of Duty Injury Causation

32 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Specifics: Statutes, Rules, and Regulations Federal Aviation Act of 1958 –49 U.S.C. Provides regulatory authority for: –Department of Transportation Aviation Economic Regulations or AERs 14 C.F.R. § –Federal Aviation Administration Federal Aviation Regulations or FARs 14 C.F.R. § –National Transportation Safety Board 49 C.F.R. § 830, 31, and 45

33 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Specifics: Statutes, Rules, and Regulations State products liability laws –liability of a manufacturer or seller of a chattel which is defective and/or unreasonably dangerous and causes injury. –William R. Prosser, Handbood of the Law of Torts 641 (4th ed. 1971) –Three theories of recovery: Warranty (contract remedy) Strict liability (tort remedy) Negligence (tort remedy)

34 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Negligence Duty Breach of Duty Injury Causation

35 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development The Bad Create broad range of compliance duties Create investigation bodies –NTSB determines probable cause for all aircraft accidents in the U.S. Create Enforcement Procedures –Civil and criminal penalties

36 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development The Bad Other Sources of Liability –Contract provisions –Other Federal and State Statutes and Regulations Environmental Intellectual Property Employment Corporate –International Treaties

37 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development The Good Statutes can be good?

38 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development The Good General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994 (42 U.S.C. § 40101) –18 year statute of repose prohibits any legal action for any aircraft, engine or part at issue –Applies to all general aviation aircraft

39 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development The Good General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994 (42 U.S.C. § 40101) - Exceptions –Manufacturer knowingly misrepresented or concealed or withheld from the FAA information relating to: The type certification components airworthiness

40 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development The Good General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994 (42 U.S.C. § 40101) - Exceptions –claimant was a passenger for purposes of receiving emergency or medical care

41 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development The Good General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994 (42 U.S.C. § 40101) - Exceptions –suit is brought under the manufacturers written warranties

42 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development The Good State statute of limitations International Treaties –Warsaw Convention Other liability limiters –Sales contract provisions shift liability away limit liability –Insurance agreements cover yourself

43 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development The Beautiful Risk Management Programs –By whom? –Government Initiated NTSB or FAA –Insurance Company –In-house

44 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development The Beautiful Risk Management Programs –Evaluate loss potential –Use established risk management techniques –Put a plan in action

45 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development The Beautiful Risk Management Programs –Evaluate loss potential Total potential loss X % Chance loss will occur Account for all losses (Economic & Social) –Use established risk management techniques –Put a plan in action

46 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development The Beautiful Risk Management Programs –Evaluate loss potential –Use established risk management techniques Eliminate (Dont Do It) Reduce (Rapid Response) Transfer (Insurance) Retain (Savings Plan) –Put a plan in action

47 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development The Beautiful Risk Management Programs –Evaluate loss potential –Use established risk management techniques –Put a plan in action Identify the risks –Maintain database of accidents, lawsuits, liability situations Create contingencies and risk reducing methods Example: British Airways BASIS program

48 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Thank you! R. Scott Johnson McKee, Voorhees & Sease, PLC 801 Grand Avenue, Suite 3200 Des Moines, Iowa

49 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Risk Mitigation through Knowledge Management JoAnne Rocker NASA Scientific and Technical Information Program Chair, AIAA Technical Information Committee Topic 4

50 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Discussion Topics Risk mitigation Knowledge management Communities of practice Lessons Learned Portals Technology and cultural change Conclusion Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development

51 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Risk Management (RM) is an organized, systematic decision-making process that efficiently identifies, analyzes, plans (for the handling of risks), tracks, controls, communicates, and documents risk Purpose: increase the likelihood of achieving program/project goals Risk mitigation depends upon risk analysis Many useful sources of information should be compiled to provide input for risk analysis, for example: Test data Expert opinions Hazard Analyses, Failure Modes and Effects Analyses Lessons learned data and historical information from other programs/projects Software verification and validation Risk data generated in other steps in the process Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Risk mitigation is a process involving information analysis from a variety of data sources Risk Mitigation Risk Management Procedures and Guidelines, NPG

52 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Knowledge management refers to strategies and structures for maximizing the return on intellectual and information resources Tacit form (human education, experience and expertise) Explicit forms (documents and data) Creates new value by improving the efficiency and effectiveness of individual and collaborative efforts to organize and use information resources Increases innovation and improves decision-making From: Defining Knowledge Management, destinationKM.com, Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Knowledge Management

53 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Why does the aerospace industry need KM? Aerospace is a competitive knowledge-based industry Continual learning and re-using information to be competitive, respond to change, stay innovative, and discover new products and processes Long-term life cycle for technology development and knowledge can be lost or forgotten if no KM process is in place (KM provides continuity as information is captured, stored, and made available for use) Virtual workforce (national and internationally located) need to share resources and information for collaborative work Cyclical hiring practices hinders knowledge sharing between experienced employees and new hires Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development

54 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Knowledge management strategies and structures Communities of practice Lessons learned databases Portals Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development

55 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development From: Communities for knowledge management, by Stephen Denning, article found at Definitions of community of practice vary somewhat, but are usually taken to mean a group of practitioners who share a common interest or passion in an area of competence and are willing to share the experiences of their practice. Communities of practice can also be known as: Thematic groups (World Bank) Learning communities or networks (Hewlett Packard) Best practice teams (Chevron) Communities exist within companies and as well as across company boundaries Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Communities of Practice

56 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Ultimately, all companies seek sustainable competitive advantage -- in processes as well as in products and services. Many people see this as tied to a process of continuing innovation. In turn, innovation depends on human qualities such as curiosity, insight, ideas and determination. In the last analysis, innovation depends on people applying knowledge in ways that yield new solutions to old and new problems. Much of what people do in organizations occurs in the context of Communities of Practice. There is where best practices and innovations first emerge and where the solutions to shared problems are first identified. For this reason, many companies are determined to encourage, promote, and support CoPs, especially in areas, processes and functions where an edge in performance provides a competitive advantage (whether it be financial, operational or in the eyes of the customer). It takes time for CoPs to emerge, to flourish and to become productive. More important, they can't be mandated or managed in a heavy-handed way. CoPs, then, are an investment in the organization's future, not a quick fix to be applied for the sake of short-term gain. Most important, many will exist whether or not management chooses to encourage and support them; they are a natural part of organizational life. And that means they require a minimal investment on the part of the organization. The business case for CoPs is this: for a quite modest investment in terms of today's resources, organizations can reap huge rewards in terms of tomorrow's results. Common traits of communities of practice (CoP) Strong sense of identity with the group - members often from the same line of work (salespeople, technicians, engineers, webmasters, etc). Practice is not captured in formal procedures – people learn how to do the work and are seen as competent or not based on working with others Use the same the same tools, methods, techniques Express themselves in a common language Cross-disciplinary not attached to organizational chart Differ from projects or teams Groups are self-selecting Emphasis sharing knowledge and experiences Source: Fred Nickols, Communities of Practice: Definition, Indicators & Identifying Characteristics, Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development

57 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Lessons learned is a narrative account of an actual experience providing an analysis of what happened, what was expected to happen, an understanding of why there were differences, and what was learned. Source: Schlumberger Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Lessons Learned

58 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development

59 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development

60 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development

61 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development

62 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development A portal is a site featuring a suite of commonly used services, serving as a starting point and frequent gateway to the Web (Web portal) or a niche topic (vertical portal). Web portal services often include a search engine or directory, news, , stock quotes, maps, forums, chat, shopping, and options for customization. From: Marketing Terms.com, Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Portals

63 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Example: aerospace portal (

64 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Example: aerospace portal (

65 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Technology but part of process to implement knowledge management but changing culture is essential to KM success Source: William Matthews, Knowledge management's 'worst Federal Computer Week, April 25, 2002, Gartner Inc. conducted a survey on how well organizations utilize knowledge management and found: Survey participants scored from high of 78% to low of 2% Worst offender was the government with 2% Government workers didnt understand what knowledge management was and how to use it Effective knowledge management means information sharing and collaboration and agencies are not used to doing that French Caldwell, Gartner Research Director, "Knowledge management is a business process that has to be approached with discipline. It is not a technology. You can't buy it in a box." Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development

66 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development No KM technology or tool will be successful without a fundamental paradigm shift in corporate culture KM initiatives need acceptance and be seen as a way to do things differently Means user training, emphasizing the benefits of the new way of working KM is not a one-time investment but rather an ongoing process Top level management are the champions of KM initiatives Success or failure depends on a company's ability and willingness to make real cultural changes Source: Henry Newberry, Knowledge Management and Corporate Culture, Lotus Advisor Magazine, November 2002, p6, Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development

67 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Risk Mitigation and knowledge management Purpose of managing risk is to increase the likelihood of achieving program/project goals Way to mitigate risk is through process of risk analysis which draws upon many different types of data and information sources Knowledge management provides the structure for collecting, organizing, and making information available for use (communities of practice, lessons learned, portals) Leverages corporate knowledge and creates a collaborative work environment Business process - not a technology - that needs top-level support to be effective Knowledge management should be a business practice in the aerospace industry Knowledge-based industry Highly specialized technologies and processes making it vital to capture and retain corporate knowledge Innovation and knowledge creation are keys to survival in competitive marketplace and knowledge management is about getting the right information to the right people at the right time Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Conclusion

68 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Topic 5 Risk Management and Systems Engineering Pete Rutledge, Ph.D Office of Safety & Mission Assurance NASA Headquarters Washington, DC Systems Engineering Technical Committee

69 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Both are concerned about mission success. Both deal with uncertainty. Both must work the entire life cycle. Both need the Big Picture. Both must deal with all system elements. Both are concerned about interfaces and dependencies. Both are threatened by complexity and tight coupling. Both can help help with trade-offs to optimize cost- effectiveness. Both benefit from many of the same tools. Both can provide valuable support to decision-makers. Risk Management & Systems Engineering: Many Common Attributes

70 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Mission Success: What Can Go Wrong? What can go wrong? Hardware can fail Software can contain errors Humans can make mistakes There is a lot at stake! Human life Hardware Software Facilities Scientific knowledge Time Money Mars Climate Orbiter: Spacecraft Science Program delayed $250 Million Challenger: 7 lives Orbiter Payload Fleet grounded $2 Billion+

71 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Uncertainty: Probabilities & Consequences What can go wrong with this project? How likely is it to go wrong? What would be the consequences if something does go wrong? How soon do we need to act? What can be done to prevent things from going wrong, or at least reduce the probability or severity of the consequences? What risk mitigation would be effective? Risk = Probability X Consequences

72 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development System Life Cycle: From Cradle to Grave Risk originates and impacts system in all phases of the system life cycle. –Formulation Advanced Studies Preliminary Analysis Definition –Implementation Design Development Operations (including disposal) 70-90% of safety-related decisions (good & bad) are made early. Early decisions are cheap to make but have big effect on life cycle cost. Design process errors are the root cause of many failures. Systems Engineering & Risk Management need to begin early for maximum effectiveness.

73 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development The Big Picture: All Elements, Interfaces, & Dependencies All system elements contribute to risk: Hardware Software Human Systems Engineering & Risk Management must deal with all: Elements Interfaces Dependencies

74 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Confounding Combinations & Complications The Hardware element –Behavior and failure modes are relatively well understood –Modeling and analysis is routine The Software element –Systems are increasingly dependent on large, complex codes –Difficult to exhaustively test large, complex code –Often failures trace back to the errors in the requirements –Many models for predicting reliabilitybut which one to use? The Human element –Human error is said to contribute to 70-90% of accidents –Human performance is difficult to model, analyze, and predict Interfaces & Dependencies –Confounding combinations of complex and tightly coupled elements –Demands a Systems Engineering & Risk Management approach

75 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Complexity & Tight Coupling Practically limitless, unforeseeable combinations of failures. System unravelings with an intelligence of their own; exposing hidden connections, neutralizing redundancies, bypassing firewalls, and exploiting chance circumstances for which no engineer could reasonably plan. Cascading failures can accelerate out of control, confounding human operators and denying them a chance for recovery. Systems Engineering & Risk Management become essential. Mouse Trapa game by Milton-Bradley Accidents are inevitable -- normal. Charles Perrow, Normal Accidents

76 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Optimizing Cost-Effectiveness: Risk as a Resource

77 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Tools of the Trades Hazard Analysis (PHA, SHA, SSHA, O&SHA) Reliability Analysis (for HW, SW, Human; RBD, prediction) Fault Tree, Success Tree, Event Tree Analysis Cause & Effect Diagrams (Fishbone Diagrams) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Probabilistic Structural Analysis Failure Modes & Effects Analysis (FMEA) Pareto Analysis Monte Carlo simulation Cost and schedule analysis Data, trend, and statistical analysis And more…. Common to both Systems Engineering and Risk Management.

78 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Systems Engineering & Risk Management for Decision Support Given the common attributes just discussed, the Systems Engineering function is ideally suited employ Risk Management methodology to provide valuable support to aerospace engineering decision-makers.

79 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Dr. Achille Messac Multidisciplinary Design and Optimization Laboratory Mechanical, and Aeronautical Engineering Department Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Multidisciplinary Design Optimization as a Powerful Risk Mitigation Tool

80 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Presentation Outline 1- Multidisciplinary Design Optimization What is it? A bit of history… 2- Aerospace and other MDO Applications 3- Multiobjective reality -- Physical Programming 4- Venturing into the nondeterministic environment of RISK – The role of MDO 5- Optimization in Conceptual Design 6- Concluding Remark

81 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development From Early Timid Optimization Applications to MDO From 50s to 70s, engineering optimization is - Primarily Uni-disciplinary Aerospace >> Structure – min. mass - Computationally Challenged - Of Timid Problem Scope - Heavily reliant on the defective MO method -- weighted sum

82 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development From Early Timid Optimization Applications to MDO -- Cont. In early to mid eighties - Computers become faster, and start decreasing in cost - Optimal Control grows in popularity - Large Space Structures research grows - Concurrent Engineering becomes a cherished word - Bi-disciplinary optimization: Control-Structure (Messac, Hale) - NASA, Air Force, and JPL initiate MDO, CSI programs - Government financial resources relatively abundant (human, computer – however slow) - First Pre-MDO conference is held at Langley (Sobieski – 1984)

83 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development From Early Timid Optimization Applications to MDO -- Cont. Mid 80s to Mid 90s - Computers are much faster and cheaper - AIAA MDO TC is born (Transition from Bi- to Multi-disciplinary) - MDO is still largely Deterministic - MDO is still implemented in later stages of design Not at Conceptual Design Stage - MDO is still largely addressing traditional disciplines Aero, Structure, Control – Neglecting Cost, Management, etc. While… - MDOs popularity and use grows many-fold (e.g. GE heating element) - MDO research enjoys strong international growth - MA&O Conference grows more and more successful

84 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development From Early Timid Optimization Applications to MDO -- Cont. Mid 90s to Present -MDO is still implemented in later stages of design Not at Conceptual Design Stage -- New Conceptual Design optimization method emerged (s-Pareto based Conceptual Design – Mattson-Messac) -Optimization is still often used using the defective weighted sum paradigm - Computer cost and speed are dramatically reduced - MDO grows within government AND industry -MDO begins to address non-traditional disciplines Cost, Management, Manufacturability, Profit, Safety, Risk, etc. - MDO becomes more appropriately treated as Multiobjective - MA&O Conference continues to prosper: 2002 Atlanta; Sept Near Saratoga Springs NY

85 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) CFD Structures Performance Aero Loads Deformations Mach Number Str. Weight Aero Loads TOGW Design space discipline 1 Design space discipline 2 Design Variables Performance Multidisciplinary Optimal Design Discipline 1 Optimum Feasible Design Space Suboptimal Design Conventional Trades MDO Search Discipline 2 Optimum Effective Integration of Individual Disciplines/Subsystems to Capture the Interactions Novel Solution Procedures to Enable Improved System Solutions: - Account for Interdisciplinary Couplings & Integrated Product Team (IPT) settings. MDO = { Design Optimization, Design Exploration, Cross-Attribute Optimization, InterDisciplinary Optimization, System Synthesis }

86 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development NVH Frontal Crash Offset Crash Roof Crush Minimize: Vehicle Weight Subject to:NVH design targets Frequency Bending Displacement Torsion Displacement Frontal crash design targets Dummy HIC Dummy Chest G Probability of severe injury Roof crush design targets Maximum resistant force 50% Frontal Offset crash design targets Intrusion Side Impact design targets Displacements Viscous Criterion Safety Ford-SGI - Vehicle System MDO Project HPC/MDO for NVH & Safety on the Origin 3800 Side Impact Everything influences everything else!

87 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Aerodynamics Propulsion Controls Hydraulics Avionics Electrical system Fuel system Landing gear Structural optimization is at MDO roots AIRFRAME STRUCTURE In Vehicle Everything Couples to Structure

88 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Car Body Optimization for Noise, Vibration, Harshness, and Crash Vehicle Roof Crush is a federally mandated requirement to enhance passenger safety during a rollover event. NVH must be constrained for passengers comfort Modified NVH Model with a Square Ram to Perform Roof Crush as specified by regulations Finite Element Model of 390,000+ dof, boundary conditions; 20 design variables Optimization executed using Response Surface approximations to crash analysis and sensitivity-based approximations to NVH Implemented on a computer with 256 processors Single processor computer would need 257 days to do this optimization It was condensed to 1 day on the multiprocessor machine. Courtesy: Ford Motor Co./R-J. Yang

89 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Air Borne Laser System Design BMC 4 I Boeing 8-10 March Beam Control System Turret Assembly Large Optics Four Axis gimbals Transfer optics Beam Transfer Assembly Sensor Suite Active Mirrors Illuminators Electronics Software/Processors 747F Aircraft - BoeingBoeing CDR 29 Feb - 3 Mar Chemical Oxygen Iodine Laser (COIL) TRW March System Level Design Boeing CDR April 12

90 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Supersonic Business Jet Test Case

91 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development MDO necessary to protect very small payload margin Massively computational problem Candidate MDO method : design data bases for subsystems and disciplines precomputed off-line using multiprocessor computing Examples of applications that will need all that Configuration A Configuration B Courtesy: NASA LRC/Troutman

92 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development u Obtaining an effective objective function is difficult in practice. u Weighted-Sum (WS) method for optimization has its inherent significant drawbacks. It is incapable of capturing a large class of potentially desirable Pareto solutions. It is also the most popular! u Compromise Programming (CP) method can be used to generate a complete set of efficient solutions, but its reliance on meaningless weights is a serious problem. Pareto... u Etc. Prevailing Practice

93 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Obj. Fun. Line Optimal Solution Using Weighted-Sum

94 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Pareto Solutions Using Weighted-Sum

95 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Obj. Fun. Line Weighted-Sum in Non-Convex Pareto Frontiers

96 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Obj. Fun. Line Weighted Compromise Programming for Non-Convex Pareto Frontiers

97 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Quantify Preference for Each Design Metric Ex: Mass of Beam Highly Desirable< 250 (kg) Desirable Tolerable Undesirable Highly Undesirable Unacceptable > 350 Physical Programming (cont.)

98 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Expressing Designer Preference During the Optimization Process

99 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Behavior of the PP Class Function for Change in Preferences

100 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Numerical Example 1 (of 2) Minimize Subject to WSCPPP Results Behaviors of different objective functions for a convex frontier

101 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Example 2 WSCPPPResults Behaviors of different objective functions for a concave frontier

102 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development The Reality of Uncertainty and Risk 1- Non-Deterministic Forum -- SDM 2- Traditional Factor-of-Safety approach is rapidly becoming an anachronistic relic of the past 3- Development of probabilistic design optimization methods 4- New MDO methods emerge to model risk and uncertainty 5- Profit as a design metric gains acceptance 6- Growing recognition that optimization in Conceptual Design is a necessity 7- TC has moves to Engineering & Technology Management Group to explore expanded collaboration

103 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Not Primarily a Technical Problem Critical Issues are: EDUCATION, MANAGEMENT, AND ORGANIZATION CULTURE A Challenge? INJECTING MDO INTO INDUSTRIAL PRACTICE:

104 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Concluding Remarks The picture is somewhat muddied! Much of good news; yet much to be desired. MDOs power is evident. Yet its strongest influence can be felt in this decade if -- its application in a holistic setting comes to pass, and -- key methodological developments take place in collaboration with non-traditional participants MDO is a unifying indispensable glue, if we are to effectively design the ultra-safe, profitable, and effective design of the future For more information:

105 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Topic 7 Integrating Risk Management The Integrated Management Framework (IMF) Systems Engineering Applied to Program Management Richard Raiford, Chair AIAA Management Technical Committee

106 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Integrating Risk Management Integrated Management Framework (IMF) Agenda What is IMF? Where Is IMF Applicable? What does IMF Look Like When Implemented? How Do I Implement IMF on An Existing Program?

107 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Integrated Management Framework (IMF) IMF Is a Scalable Program Infrastructure That Uses System Engineering Principles To Implement an Executable Program Proactive Boundary Spanning Integrated Processes Controlled Baselines

108 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development The System - An Executable Program Enterprise Customers Program Operating Environment Geo-Political Political Operational Capability Assessments Apply SE Techniques to Everything Relevant to an Executable Program Suppliers Executable Program Operational System(s) Product Elements Project Elements

109 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Some Fundamental Concepts of IMF The System is the Executable Program Proactive Boundary Spanning (a.k.a. Integration) –Boundaries Are a Fact of Life (Organization, Product, Program) –IPTs Dont Eliminate Boundaries, They Just Re-Arrange Them Top-Down: Event-Based Management –Manage Progress Toward Key Program Events Bottom-Up: Requirements-Based Task Accountability –Know And Track Requirements Pull to Continually Identify the Risks –Somewhere, Someone Knows We Are at Risk of Not Meeting A Reqt Control Program Baselines –Everyone On the Same Page, Marching in Unison to the Same Objective

110 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development IMF – Defined RAA Roles of the Program Mgr **From the AF Critical Process Assessment Tool (CPATS) for PM Responsibilities of the Program Manager** (Program Manager)* Manage the Program Integrate the Program Architect the System (Deputy PM)*(SEIT, PIT, SEMT)* (System Architect)* Keep the Program Sold IPTs Consisting of: Business Mgmt Planning Contract Mgmt Subcontract Mgmt Materiel Manufacturing Engineering Logistics Systems Engineering Security Requirements Mgmt Baseline Mgmt Performance Mgmt Risk Mgmt Analysis and Integration (Boundary Spanning) Planning Integrate Processes and Systems Requirements & Functional Analysis and Allocation Synthesis System Analysis and Control Verification The 4 Roles Shown May Be In One Person, or Divided Depending on the Type, Phase, and Complexity of the Program. In any case, the PM Has Ultimate RAA for All Roles. 4 Roles of the Program Manager *A Large Program Would Subdivide the Roles

111 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Characteristics Style Hierarchy of Program Styles - From Reactive to Proactive Program AND Enterprise Mgmt Frequently Involved in Cost, Schedule, and/or Performance Problems that Threaten Viability of the Program; Chaos, Frustration, Finger Pointing Crisis Management 1 Mgmt Has Inconsistent Visibility of Performance; Fluid Rating Criteria Teams Resist Quantitative Metrics; No Controlled Perf. Baseline Frequent Problems Due to Failure to Meet Plan Milestones Issue Management 2 Mgmt Has Visibility of Status of Program Performance to Current Plan Issues Related to Predicted Failure to Meet Plan Milestones Surprises as Evolving Environment Overtakes Current Plans Performance Management 3 Ongoing Integrated Assessments of Likelihood of Meeting Objectives in Light of Current Status and Projected Environment Plans Updated as Required; Streamlined by CheckbookRiskManagement 4 Ongoing, Integrated Assessments of Evolving Program & Environment; Entire Organization Understands Current and Potential Customer Needs; Integrated Strategies Take Advantage of Opportunities Opportunity Management 5

112 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Program Styles Are Based On How We Manage

113 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development IMF – Four Program Baselines Structure the Program By Structuring the Information Enterprise Baseline ProductBaseline ProjectBaseline PerformanceBaseline What the Company Brings to the Effort (HR, Financial Systems, People, Skills, Processes, Systems, Etc.) The Framework for the Program (Contract, SOW, Schedule, Etc.) The Reason for the Programs Existence; The Product Baseline Evolves from Back of the Envelope to 10,000 Parts flying at 50,000 Feet How Performance to Plan Will Be Measured (Metrics, Thresholds, Formats, Reporting Frequency, Etc.)

114 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Program Integration with IMF Defined RAA for Everyone Program is a System of Systems Proactive Boundary Spanning Integrated Plans & Processes Reqts Baselines (CM) Performance Risk Integration How What Who IMF Managed Information Enterprise Baseline Project Baseline Product Baselin e Performance Baseline

115 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development - Defined Ownership - No Data Redundancy IMF - Four Program Baselines Example Contents The Baselines... Evolve! Rate of Change Enterprise = 0 Project = 0/Low Product = Very High ProjectBaseline ProductBaseline EnterpriseBaseline ProductBaseline Shop & Assy Planning Tool Design Specs Requirements Analytical Models Bill of Materials Design Test Procedures Tech Orders Risk db Shop & Assy Planning Tool Design Specs Requirements Analytical Models Bill of Materials Design Test Procedures Tech Orders Risk db Contract WBS Deliverables Integrated Mgmt Plan & Schedule (IMP / IMS) Program Mgmt Plan (PMP) Tailored Processes & Procedures Earned Value Mgmt System SOW Risk Mgmt Plan Stakeholder Mgmt: Communication, Conflict, Etc., Plans Materiel, Suppliers, MRP Systems Human Resource Systems & Databases Facilities Policies, Common Processes Financial/ Accounting Systems Functions & CoEs Analytical Tools IT Systems Data Mgmt Tools & Systems Labs, M&S

116 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development IMF – Five Core Processes Manage Requirements –Project: Contract, SOW, IMP/IMS, Financials, Suppliers, etc. –Product Life Cycle: (Classical Systems Engineering) Manage Baselines –Enterprise, Project, Product, and Performance Baselines –Identify, Lock Location, Control Configuration, Audit Compliance Manage Performance to Plan –Status (Metrics), Risk, Decision Mgmt, Corrective Action –Drill-Down Integrated with Reqts, Baseline, and Risk Mgmt Systems Manage Risk and Opportunity –Focus on Risk to Meeting Requirements –Multi-Level From Tasks to Major Program Events Integrate the Program –Proactive Boundary Spanning Processes, Customer Expectations, Planning, Communication, Information, Systems and Processes, Functions, Technical, Training, and Closeout

117 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Integrated Management Framework (IMF) Where is IMF Applicable?

118 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development IMF and Program Type / Phase IMF Is Most Powerful When Product Baseline is Evolving Concept Development / Technology Demonstration System Concept Selection, Down Select Operational Needs & Requirement s Analysis System Development & Demonstration Production & Deployment Technology Upgrade & Insertion Technology Development & Risk Reduction Sustainment & Disposal 7 Concept Chart The Area of the Program Type / Phase Implies the Degree to Which IMF Will Help the Effort 1

119 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Questionnaires Guide Tailoring IMF to Program Type & Phase Complexity Infrastructure Maturity System Operational Needs & Reqts Analysis Concept Selection, Down Select Concept Development / Demonstration System Development & Demonstration Production & Deployment Sustainment & Disposal Team Members Co- Located # of Skill Sets Length of Program Other Bus Areas / Sectors on Team Suppliers on Team Done Similar Tasks Before Cost Priority # of People Project Reqts Baseline Mgmt Performanc e Mgmt Integration Comprehensive Scope Mgmt System WBS, IMP, IMS Schedules Integrated Vertically & Horizontally & Config. Controlled Product Reqts Integrated, Traceable System: Reqts Analysis, Functional Analysis /Allocation, Trades, Decisions, V&V Proactive, Customer Mgmt, Planning, Communication, Information, Systems & Processes Risk Mgmt Event Based, Look-Ahead System Baselines with Rating Criteria Structured Decision Making Corrective Action System Program & Project Info Structured, Configuration Controlled, Audited, Available When Needed Program Program Described (Road Map, Funding, SOW, Etc) Key Personnel In Place / Trained Qualified System Architect Defined Enterprise Baseline Technology Development Insertion Identification Worked with Same Team Before Funding Source Internal or External Worked with Same Customer Before

120 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Integrated Management Framework (IMF) What does IMF Look Like When Implemented? Examples of Some Key Elements of a Program Under IMF

121 Manage Requirements (What are We Supposed to Do?) Manage Baselines (BLs) (Config. Mgmt) (Write It Down) Evaluate Performance (How are We Doing?) Program Integration (Integrated Program Mgmt Plan) IPT Handbook Or Communication Plan Schedule Tree PIT Assessment Cycle Program Control Board Risk / Opportunity Board Process / System Board Weekly Program Reviews System Integration (System Integration Plan) Analysis/Model ICPs SEIT Cycle Config Control Boards Eng Review Board Design Reviews Element Integration Drawing Tree Interface Control Plans SEIT Meetings BL Mgmt Plan/Proc Des, Build, Supt. Plans JPCB, PCB Process Control Board Four Program Baselines Config Mgmt Plan CCB, SRB, ERB Interface Control Working Group Product Baselines Designs, Anal & Test Plans & Reports Components / Parts, Subsys, SW Interfaces, ICDs Risk Mgmt Plan/Proc Risk / Opp. Mgmt Board Look-Ahead, 90 day & IMP Risk/Opportunity DB Issue/Action DB Technical Risk Mitigation Plans Risk ID Matrices Simulations Waterfall Charts Make / Buy Decisions Part Shortage Mgmt Process Steps Identify Analyze Plan Track Control Identify Customer Reqts Develop System Reqts Develop Product Reqts Analyze & Validate Reqts Define (Technical) Solution Verify and Validate Product Plan & Identify BLs Publish Manage Change Track Status Audit Integrity Core Process Reqts Mgmt Plan/Proc Quality & Security Plans Decision Mgmt Process Supplier Mgmt Plan/Proc Program Control Board Process Quality Audits Contract > SOW > Sched > Resources > Budget ORD; MND System Specs (Tree) Specialty Integration Plan Reqts Anal / Func Anal Integrated Test Plans VCRI Slate EDRM Element / Subsystem Specs Standard Parts Process Specs Material Specs Component Acceptance Criteria Baseline Collect Data Integrate Evaluate Report Performance Mgmt Plan CPAR Mgmt Process Wkly Program Review EVMS, Sched Tracking, Issues Traffic TPM Plan(s) & Process Config. Change Traffic Technical Performance Measurands Shortages, Rejects, MRB IPD: Sched Commitment Tracking: Part: Design, Buy, Install, etc. IMF Implementation Matrix Plans, Processes, Documents Meetings, Boards, (Team Interaction) Inputs, Outputs, Tools, etc. Key: Manage Risk / Opportunity (Will we Do It? & Can We Do it Better?) Plans, Documents, Mtgs, Boards, Tools, & Work Products (Examples

122 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Result of Sample Plan for Implementing IMF Situation at End of Month Three IPMP and IPT Handbook Published Availability of Key Personnel Controlled Regular Meetings Controlled: Agendas, Attendance, Minutes Baseline Documents Indexed and Configuration Controlled IMP In Place Schedule Tree In Place & Schedules Vertically Integrated –Horizontal Integration Is In Work Integrating Charters (RAA) In Place Reqts Mgmt System – Front End Implemented –Contract Parsed, Specs Depend on Maturity of Original System Event Based Performance Mgmt Implemented (Still Subjective) Decision Mgmt System – Front End Implemented –Program Control Board In Place –Corrective Action Board Meeting Monthly Risk Mgmt System Initiated (Depends on Maturity of Original System)

123 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Program Information Systems - Example Project Performance Baselines Performance Rpts Repository Performance Mgmt SystemDecision Mgmt System Tech. Performance Baselines Corrective Action System Corrective Action Repository Performance Mgmt Info System Interface Reqts Mgmt Info System Interface Reqts Mgmt System (SLATE) Reqts Reports Repository Design Decision Data Repository (Trades, Mtgs, Decision Memos, Etc.) Design Decision Index System Design Support Data Repository (Specs, Analysis, Test Reqts & Reports) Risk Mgmt Information System Interface Risk Tracking System (eRisk) Risk Mgmt Reports Repository Risk Analysis / Decision Data Repository Risk Decision Indexing System Risk Mgmt Reporting System Risk Decision System Risk Database PMIS Index & Repository Program Mgmt Info System Interface Interfaces to Other Systems Project Mgmt Info System Interface Project Mgmt Repository / Index Schedules EVMS Budget Staffing Capital Etc.... Portal Product Data Mgmt System Interface Design Data C/PIOS Buy, Fab, Build Data Sup- port Reqts Mgmt System Test Sys Configuration (& Change) Control System Links

124 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Org/Team Level Program Level Task Level Metric Task & Resp person Timeline | | | | | | SR # of Events | | | | | | Timeline Plan Actual to Plan OR Resp Org Product / Event | | | | | | Resp Sub Org Event / Accom | | | | | | IMF - Performance Management Model, Procedures, Guides, & Checklists Program Management and Control Plan Performance Management Plan Define Performance and Reporting Reqts Procedure Performance Management Checklist Performance Visibility & Database Mgmt System Flowdown of Performance Mgmt Reqts to Suppliers Metrics Selection Technical Performance Measurement (TPM) Procedure Quantitative Mgmt Measurement Work Instruction Performance System and Metrics Audits Work Inst Performance Analysis

125 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Integrated Management Framework (IMF) How Do I Build an IMF on an Existing Program? Create the IPMP, IPT Handbook, and Supporting Docs from Templates That Include Tutorials and Example Formats

126 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development IMF Tailored & Implemented By Two Documents Integrated Program Management Plan (IPMP) Implements/Tailors IMF for the Program Objectives, Schedules, Priorities Mgmt Approaches for Every Area Policy, Procedures, and Authorities Replaces Multiple Independent Plans IPT Handbook Foundation for Program Integration Tells Program Personnel How the Program Will Operate Charters and RAAs Communication & Issue Resolution Meetings – Who, What, When, Where

127 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Use Templates to Generate Integrated Program Mgmt Plan and Supporting Procedures Business Mgmt Corporate, Sector Shared Services, and Business Area / Homeroom Processes, Policies, and Guides Materiel HR EL&T LOQA Contract Integrated Program Mgmt Plan Government Regulations Tailored Procedure Templates Requirements PlansProcedures 1.Introduction, Scope, Purpose 2.Executive Summary 3.Program Overview 4.Organization 5.Administration 6.Management Systems 7.Project Reqts Mgmt 8.System Life Cycle Mgmt 9.Baseline Management 10.Performance Mgmt 11.Risk / Opportunity Mgmt 12.Program Integration Integrates (Combines) Program Management Plan System Engineering Mgmt Plan Risk Management Plan Configuration Management Plan Performance Management Plan Interactive Templates IPT Handbook

128 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Cycle Weekly Program Reviews Special Topics / Action Items / Calendar Customer Satisfaction / Top Program Issues and Risks Strategic Rhythm / Horizontal Integration Week 1 Shortages Staffing Rework Audits Reqts Volatility Process Week 2 Team Reports Accomplishments Customer Satisfaction TPMs Changes Product Week 3 EVMS Data & Indicators By Program & by Team Performance to IMP/IMS Cost & Schedule Week 4 Top Issues & Risk and Associated Closure/ Mitigation Plans Corrective Action Risk / Opp.

129 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Integrated Management Framework (IMF) Summary IMF Is a Scalable Program Infrastructure That Uses System Engineering Principles To Implement an Executable Program Features –Proactive Boundary Spanning –Four Baseline Categories –Five Integrated Core Processes Implemented by Interactive Creation of –Integrated Program Management Plan –IPT Handbook Integrating Risk Management is Critical for Success

130 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Panel Discussion All Speakers Topic 8

131 2/13/ Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Join Us Next Year for The Delta Forum 2004 Designing and Integrating 21 st Century Systems Next Year Thank You for joining us!


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