1. Are new political cleavages opening up between globalization’s (perceived) ‘winners’ and ‘losers’? Edgar Grande University of Munich Chair in Comparative Politics Presentation at the joint Policy Network/ FES symposium on „The future of European social democracy“, London, February 7-8.

2. Key Questions: How does globalization affect national politics in Western Europe? Does it lead to a re-configuration of political cleavage structures and mobilization patterns? And if so, what does this mean for established parties and party systems?

3. The argument in brief Globalization is transforming the very basis of politics in Western Europe. Globalization has been generating a new political cleavage (‚demarcation-integration‘ cleavage) and this new cleavage and this new cleavage has far- reaching repercussions for the structure of political spaces in West European countries. Thus far, the new political potentials created by globalization have most successfully been exploited by (new) right-wing populist parties (‘politics of identity’).

4. Background of the Presentation Research project on „Political Change in a Globalizing World“ jointly directed by Edgar Grande (University of Munich) and Hanspeter Kriesi (University of Zurich). Project covers six West European countries (Austria, France, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, UK); Period from the mid-1970s until the 2002-2005; Data set includes post-election polls (demand side) and quantitative content analysis of election campaigns (supply side).

6. How does globalization affect national politics? Globalization gives rise to new disparities and new political conflicts. Basically, we can identify three mechanism, which contribute to the formation of new groups of ‚winners‘ and ‚losers‘ of competition: - economic competition (open vs. protected economic sectors), - cultural diversity (indigenous vs. migrant populations), - and political integration (nationalist vs. cosmopolitan orientations). These new oppositions constitute new political potentials which offer a ‘window of opportunity’ for processes of political de- and re-alignment, the formation of new political parties and the restructuring of national party systems.

15. Conclusions I: First, the ‘cultural’ dimension of the political spaces has been transformed and in most countries its importance has been increasing. Second, the ‚space of competition‘ among the major parties has been shifting significantly towards the right pole of the ideological spectrum. Third, the polarization and fragmentation within party systems has clearly been increasing in most countries since the 1970s.

16. Conclusions II: Fourth, as a result of these trends a tripolar structure of political competition has been emerging: social- democratic and green parties on the left pole, Christian-democratic and conservative-liberal parties at the moderate right pole, right-wing populist parties forming a new radical right wing pole. Fifth, the transformative potential of globalization has not yet been fully exploited by political parties. There seems to be potential for new left-wing populist parties who successfully respond to various types of security problems created by globalization (‘politics of security’).

17. Appendix I Transformation of national political spaces in six West European countries: Germany UK France Austria Switzerland Netherlands

24. Appendix II: Background information on the six countries: Social and economic indicators,

27. Figure 10.1. The strength of traditional and new divides among social groups.

31. Appendix III: Additional data on Germany and the UK:

37. Appendix IV: Basic information on the project: Elections covered, Definition of issue categories