1. What Are the Benefits & Drawbacks of Gambling-Related Longitudinal Research? Rachel A. Volberg, Ph.D. Gemini Research, Ltd. Northampton, MA USA 9 April 2011 Engaging the Big Questions in Gambling Studies AGRI 10 th Annual Conference Banff, Alberta

2. Until quite recently …  The vast majority of research on risk factors associated with gambling problems has entailed cross-sectional studies with problem gambling status at one point in time statistically correlated with behaviors and characteristics assessed at the same time  Early population surveys in numerous jurisdictions identified the following risk factors: Male gender Age under 30 Low income Single marital status Low occupational status Less formal education Residing in large cities Some ethnic minorities (esp. immigrants, refugees) Continuous forms of gambling w/element of skill or perceived skill

3. Promise of longitudinal research  Illuminate characteristics & conditions that predict the development of gambling problems  Illuminate characteristics & conditions that predict successful recovery from gambling problems  Identify risk & protective factors associated with gambling problems  Identify transitions from non-problem to problem gambling & back (e.g., incidence)  Advance understanding of the ebb & flow of gambling problems in individuals &populations

4. Growing number of longitudinal studies conducted internationally Study PopulationWavesJurisdictionResearchers Children2CanadaPagani, Derevensky & Japel, 2009 Adolescents & parents 2CanadaDane et al, 2008 Adolescents6United StatesBarnes et al Adolescents6MontrealVitaro et al Young adults2Canada ADHD studyBreyer et al, 2009 Young adults2Dunedin cohortSlutske et al, 2005 Young adults3MinnesotaWinters et al, 2002, 2005 Young adults4AustraliaDelfabbro, Winefield & Anderson, 2009 College – young adult 4Midwest USSlutske, Jackson & Sher, 2003 College – young adult 4Midwest US (1 gambling item)Goudriaan et al, 2009 Young adults6Australia health studyHayatbakhsh et al, 2006

5. Special populations Study PopulationWavesJurisdictionResearchers Regular EGM players 6 (6 months) AustraliaDickerson, Haw & Shepherd, 2003 At-risk & help- seeking gamblers 6 (12 months) CanadaWiebe et al, 2009 Scratchcard players2NetherlandsDeFuentes-Merillas et al, 2004 Regular VLT players2Nova ScotiaSchrans, Schellinck & Walsh, 2000 Casino employees3United StatesShaffer & Hall, 2002

6. Adult studies Study Population WavesJurisdictionResearchers Adults2OntarioWiebe et al, 2003a, 2003b Adults2New ZealandAbbott, Williams & Volberg, 2004 Older low- income adults 3United States (1 gambling item) Vander Bilt et al, 2004 Adults4Alberta LLLPel-Guebaly et al (analysis underway) Adults5Ontario QERIWilliams et al (analysis underway)

7. Key findings  Gambling problems tend to resolve over time, contradicting psychiatric assumptions However, regular participation in multiple activities may be better indicator of problem gambling than measures of symptoms  Differentiating between proximal & distal factors Recent gambling behavior or symptoms better predictors of same behavior in subsequent years than more distant measures  Different groups of gamblers characterized by different trajectories towards problem gambling

8. Methodological problems  While the number of longitudinal studies in the gambling field is growing, many of these studies suffer from serious methodological problems Small sample size Biased samples Low retention / high attrition rates Short study duration No tracking of gambling parameters  one-time addition of a gambling module Lack of qualitative input  poor understanding of personal perspectives & interpretations

9. Problems in scope  Identification of risk factors remains complicated Diversity of gambling activities Debates about measuring problem gambling Lack of theoretical models  Many studies focus narrowly on psychological traits of individuals Comorbid disorders Impulsivity  Do not address questions of broader environmental influences on gambling involvement & problem gambling

10. Studies underway Study Population WavesJurisdictionResearchers Adults4Victoria (Wave 3 complete) Victoria OGR Int’l advisory panel Adults5Sweden (Wave 2 complete) SNIPH Int’l advisory group Adults3New Zealand (Starting 2011) Auckland University of Technology  Large samples (6,000 – 15,000)  Significant efforts to attain high response rates & low attrition  Focus on psychological & social variables  Looking at individual & group/aggregate trajectories (growth modeling)  Incidence possible due to 12-month follow-up of majority of Wave 1 respondents

11. Final issues  Looking beyond methodological & theoretical limitations  Major drawbacks to conducting longitudinal gambling research continue to be high cost & extended timelines  As a consequence, longitudinal studies are politically vulnerable