1. Jamie Bridges Charles Baber John Abraham Abdel-Rahman Muhsen Dimantha De Silva Sudipta Sarkar Baltimore Metropolitan Council HBA Specto Incorporated

2.  Planning in the Baltimore MD USA region  Coordinate land use and transportation policy and investments  Built and are using a spatial-economic planning analysis model based on the PECAS framework  Three scenarios analyzed Base scenario Limited road infrastructure Restrictions on rural development

6.  Random utility based Industry and household categories making decisions  Spatial market clearing Goods, services, labour, space Short term equilibrium  Prices ≠costs  Fixed quantity of space

8.  Random utility based  Parcel-by-parcel microsimulation  1 million parcels in Baltimore Enough samples from random number generator to generate reasonable and repeatable pattern  “Highest and best use” most probable  Return on investment  j*rent z *mod – amt(cost)

9.  Base growth rate from Cooperative Forecast Group  Approved transportation network  Zoning based on generalization of six comprehensive plans

14.  Forgo $6Billion in highway infrastructure

18. Households Industry

19.  Disbenefit especially for high income households  Disbenefit for some industries  Household location changes small Not generally a “concentration”  Model predicts commercial subcentres due to freeway construction  Complex economy Even in older established medium sized city

20. No development outside of Priority Funding Areas

24. Households Industry

25.  Disbenefit especially for high income households  Benefit for industries  Residential re-allocates fairly evenly in allowed areas  Non-residential / production much less intuitive  Mixed use development on military area Perhaps not realistic because of zoning, but a good idea?  Complex economy

26.  Freeway effect alone small Baltimore freeways should be combined with other supportive policies  Forced densification through zoning unpopular with high income households But popular for employers  Model shows complex economy and relationships Supports more sophisticated and holistic policy space search