1. ‘Working for Desirable Future’ : Transparency and participation in electricity sector planning in Thailand Suphakit Nuntavorakarn Healthy Public Policy Foundation, THAILAND 26th September 2011 FESTI International Conference, Bishkek

2. Installed Capacity by Type of Producers, April 2011 Total 31,516.61 MW EGAT 14,998.12 MW 47.59% Import 2,184.60 MW 6.93% IPP 12,151.59 MW 38.56% SPP 2,182.30 MW 6.92% From www.egat.co.th

3. Power Development Plan (PDP) PDP is the long-term strategic plan of the Thai power sector (15-20 years timeframe) PDP determines the future investment on power generation - how many and which types of power plant – and the transmission network. – For example, total investment of PDP2010 120 billion USD So PDP also determines the future impacts of the power sector, including environmental, economic, social, and health impacts

4. PDP2010 : (GDP Base Case) Power Development Plan 2010-2030 (PDP2010) Installed Capacity by fuel type Renewables Import Natural Gas Imported coal Nuclear 20102030

5. Drivers and institutional improvements on PDP

6. Triggering the changes: local communities protesting against large power plant projects Concerns about negative impacts Is the project really necessary? Due to over demand forecast Is there other energy options? Renewable energy in their area instead?

7. Reference : National Statistic Office Energy expenses and their burden on Thai households 1990-2006 Triggering the changes: consumer groups who are questioning about the unfair electricity tariff

8. Academic contributions and public communication Information and analysis on the electricity sector - to create basic understanding for different social sector and to get their attentions on various issues about PDP Development and impact assessment on Alternative Power Development Plans - to create ‘Choice Awareness’ on many energy options and these can be discuss deliberately as a social learning process Electricity Governance Assessment - focus on transparency, public participation, and accountability in the Thai power sector

9. GWh 3 Huge Shopping Malls VS. The Whole Province Inequality of Electricity Consumption

10. Question on Systematic Over-Demand Forecast

11. The figures of over demand forecast YearPDP2004PDP2007 Actual peak demand (MW) Over forecast (MW) PDP2004PDP2007 2547 19,600 - 19,325 275 - 2548 21,143 - 20,538 606 - 2549 22,738 - 21,064 1,674 - 2550 24,344 22,586 1,758 - 2551 26,048 23,957 22,568 3,480 1,389

12. Using Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) as the main criteria for setting electricity tariff may lead to over investment since more investment means more profit Strong regulation on investment plans is needed, but the Regulators still lack of data, knowledge, and human resources to check and balance ROIC and Investment Efficiency ROIC = Net profit after tax Investment EGAT 8.4% MEA PEA 4.8% Result : Over Demand Forecast and prefer high investment options

13. The cycle of supporting more investment under ‘monopoly’ power Over Demand Forecast Power Planning that prefer high investment options Electricity tariff that allow the pass on of excess costs to consumers Benefits of utilities, energy companies, etc. 1 2 3

14. Ft : Fuel Adjustment Charge EGAT: a part of the electricity tariff that increase or decrease automatically, according to changes in fuel costs and other uncontrol costs The mechanism to pass on the costs to consumers, which includes – Fuel costs – Electricity price for private producers and import (including profit guarantee, compensation for inflation and exchange rate) – Expenses according to government policies (e.g. Community Development Funds, ‘Adder’ for renewable energy, etc.) – Compensation for lower sale (or over investment)

15. DSM and Energy Efficiency are the cheapest energy options ที่มา : World Bank, World Development Report 2010

16. 16 DSM in PDP2010 ปี201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030 MW240 Saving target of T5 high efficiency light bulb program 2010-2019 ปี201020112012201320142015201620172018 MW43129215344473584498369198 Saving target of DSM program for 2020-2030 Save 0.3% of the peak demand in 20 years

17. Fast Growth of Renewable Energy in Thailand 1994 2009

18. Example of PDP-Alternative

19. Installed Capacity of Different PDP Options

20. GHG reduction measures 1. increase DSM 2. increase Renewables 3. decrease coal GHG reduction measures 1. increase DSM 2. increase Renewables 3. decrease coal Share of Installed Capacity in Different PDP Options

21. Energy Generation in Different PDP Options

22. Comparative Impact Assessment on various Alternative PDPs Economics Environment Social

23. Reduce GHG by 40% Significant Reduction of GHG Emission

24. Reduce SOx by 50% Good for Reducing Air Pollution (SOx)

25. Good for Reducing Pollution (Hg) Reduce Hg by 75%

26. increase GDP by 5.6% Reduce import by 16.9% Higher GDP Contribution and Lower Imported Cost

27. Good for the Economy and Environment

28. Create more jobs by 188,000 persons Good for Society, More Job Creation

29. Institutional Improvements on PDP: The policy network Expanding from mainly local communities against projects, NGOs, and some academics To different parts of the society, for example, consumer networks, community energy movement, National Human Rights Commission, several Ministries, Senate committee, the regulators, as well as EGAT and Ministry of Energy The network itself was transformed from ‘physical’ network to ‘coordinate by contents’ and more open aiming at social learning process on PDP

30. Institutional Improvements on PDP: The role of private sector The group on renewable energy, SPP and VSPP, was rather active, but conservative on pushing for change. The large power companies, IPP, have been passive to push for changes.

31. Outcomes on PDP process and key features 1. Goals for the PDP not a clear step as it was done by the same group of authorities and experts The routine goals on energy security and least cost Plus lower CO2 emission and, to some extent, renewable energy and social acceptance of PDP 2. Future demand forecast Systematic over- estimation Lower the forecast of 4,207 MW in 2030 during public participation, equals to 4,800 million USD investment

32. Outcomes on PDP process and key features 3. DSM and EENot consider in the planning process Integrate DSM in load forecast and the generation expansion (but with extremely low figure) 4. Renewable energy Not consider majority of RE projects as dependable capacity Include the re-estimated RE target and approved dependable capacity of each RE technology 5. Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Problems in the continuity of the policy on buying electricity from new CHP projects Include CHP of 7,177 MW within 2030

33. Outcomes on PDP process and key features 6. Centralized supply options – coal, natural gas, large hydropower, nuclear Being the key candidate plants and usually with bias assumptions to favor these options Still being the key candidate plants, but with more reasonable assumptions, particularly natural gas 7. Public Hearing in the planning process and draft PDP no public hearing on the draft PDP Only in 2009 and 2010 that the public hearing on the draft PDP was arranged

34. Future challenges 1) Sharpen the analysis and more effective communications, for example - improve from Forecast to Foresight and more detail analysis for peak and off-peak period, and base-intermediate-peaking supply options - improving dependable capacity and load factor of renewable energy 2) Proactive participation of local communities and policy networks in PDP process as well as other policy and planning process 3) Promote good governance and solving Conflict of Interests of the senior staffs in the Ministry of Energy 4) Ensure accountability of the government on PDP decision-making process as well as share and fair responsibility of each electricity user category

35. Thank you for your attention 35