1. Canadian Foundation for the Americas and The North-South Institute Ottawa, Canada October 19, 2009 Migration in the Americas: social insurance and management challenges

2. Our topics for today: What is going to happen with migratory flows? What is going to happen with migratory flows? How will social insurance respond? How will social insurance respond? Policy Policy Administration Administration The Mercosur development The Mercosur development

3. Renewed international migration International migratory flows have become a major social and economic force for the Americas. International migratory flows have become a major social and economic force for the Americas. In the US: 1.25 million annually or 40% of total population growth. In the US: 1.25 million annually or 40% of total population growth. Around 35-40% come from Mexico and Central America and are undocumented. Around 35-40% come from Mexico and Central America and are undocumented. Another 25% come from China and India an tend to be high-skill workers. Another 25% come from China and India an tend to be high-skill workers.

4. The economic balance Naturally, immigrants are drawn to expanding high- demand cities, which in turn end up with a higher share of both types of immigrants. Naturally, immigrants are drawn to expanding high- demand cities, which in turn end up with a higher share of both types of immigrants. It is now generally accepted that immigrants pay more taxes than the benefits they receive in the short-run. It is now generally accepted that immigrants pay more taxes than the benefits they receive in the short-run. However, if their children are eligible for poverty benefits and they end up receiving subsidized social benefits (such as minimum pensions), the balance may be reversed in the long-run. However, if their children are eligible for poverty benefits and they end up receiving subsidized social benefits (such as minimum pensions), the balance may be reversed in the long-run.

5. The demographics of the Americas favor a continuation of migration for “some time”: The rate increase in the labor force will remain high for many years to come The rate increase in the labor force will remain high for many years to come The large birth cohorts of the eighties and nineties are entering the market, and women are working much more. The large birth cohorts of the eighties and nineties are entering the market, and women are working much more. Labor Force Participation Rate MenWomen Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2004)

6. Migration is an important social and economic phenomenon for many small and large countries of the region: Temporary and return migration has become much more common, causing a larger increase in gross flows that in net flows. The Americas will continue to be an important place for migration, particularly for within-continent, where Canada, United States and Argentina will remain as net receivers of migration for the next half century.

7. In the United States the main sources of temporary workers are in the Americas

9. According to the study by Card Cities with higher rates of immigration have experienced higher population growth (the offsetting out-migration of natives is relatively small) Cities with higher rates of immigration have experienced higher population growth (the offsetting out-migration of natives is relatively small) There is a modest widening of the wage gap between more and less-skilled natives as in impact of foreign immigration. There is a modest widening of the wage gap between more and less-skilled natives as in impact of foreign immigration. Local fiscal effects seem to be small, as effects on rents are also small. Local fiscal effects seem to be small, as effects on rents are also small. Neighborhood and school externalities posed by the presence of loe-income and minority families may be larger and may explain the negative reactions of natives. Neighborhood and school externalities posed by the presence of loe-income and minority families may be larger and may explain the negative reactions of natives.

11. Data Transfers and Validation System in Mercosur

13. The Mercosur agreement is multilateral. The Mercosur agreement is multilateral. It covers countries with a population of nearly one quarter of the Continental population (200 million out of 800). It covers countries with a population of nearly one quarter of the Continental population (200 million out of 800). Migration is high in the area. Migration is high in the area. A satisfactory administrative arrangement has also been worked out. A satisfactory administrative arrangement has also been worked out. In the NAFTA region, Central America and the Caribbean, most migrants are not covered by international social security agreements. In the NAFTA region, Central America and the Caribbean, most migrants are not covered by international social security agreements.

14. New technologies allow countries a radically improved administrative management of migrants’ cases. New technologies allow countries a radically improved administrative management of migrants’ cases. The administration of social security agreements can also benefit substantially from the application of new technologies. The administration of social security agreements can also benefit substantially from the application of new technologies. Unfortunately there is also lack of advance in multilateral forums Unfortunately there is also lack of advance in multilateral forums See the difficulties governments face in achieving agreements in Seattle (1999), Cancun (2003) and Geneva (2006) See the difficulties governments face in achieving agreements in Seattle (1999), Cancun (2003) and Geneva (2006) The risk is that the space for global governance can end up being occupied by institutions that leave the weakest nations at the margin The risk is that the space for global governance can end up being occupied by institutions that leave the weakest nations at the margin Conclusions

15. Conclusions Within the complexity of global politics, the subject of social rights has proven to be one of the most difficult Within the complexity of global politics, the subject of social rights has proven to be one of the most difficult Basic social rights have been difficult to integrate with commercial negotiations Basic social rights have been difficult to integrate with commercial negotiations Social security works on a territorial base, with rights and obligations defined by national governments Social security works on a territorial base, with rights and obligations defined by national governments Despite totalization agreements the great majority of international migrants on the American continent are not covered by them Despite totalization agreements the great majority of international migrants on the American continent are not covered by them

16. Uncertain expectations The bilateral way cannot go much farther without the leadership of some of the large countries. The bilateral way cannot go much farther without the leadership of some of the large countries. The multilateral way has advanced through the Ibero-American Agreement. The multilateral way has advanced through the Ibero-American Agreement. Countries have begun linking the social protection issue with the migration issue: Countries have begun linking the social protection issue with the migration issue: Questions related to human rights. Questions related to human rights. Issues on fairness of global economic system. Issues on fairness of global economic system.