1. ? Quo vadis ? world ? economy Alex IzurietaUN / DESA IDEAs 10 th Anniversary Conference

2. Problems persists after the great recession Uneven global income distribution, overborrowing and underconsumption Private sector balance sheet stress Unfettered financial institutions Pressure on fiscal budgets (crowding out or baling out?) Inadequate aggregate demand Pressure on natural resources and the environment

3. A muddling through option Sluggish growth in developed economies (financial fragility, deleveraging, impotent monetary policy, un-welcomed fiscal policy) Major emerging economies in a moderating pace, vulnerable to international trade and finance, not yet fully regionalized Other developing countries pending on an export recovery (of commodities)

4. Muddling through : a technical growth scenario

5. Muddling through : convergence slow and partial

6. Muddling through : employment: problem for all

7. Muddling through : imbalances take on again

8. The muddling through option will not likely stand Vulnerable and fragile Unsatisfactory outcomes call for some kind of action The louder voice in the developed world calls for fiscal austerity and hopes of export recovery The developing world between perplexity and hope of decoupling

9. A fiscal austerity scenario: weaker demand & protracted

10. A fiscal austerity scenario: debt not notably reduced

11. A fiscal austerity scenario: employment far worse

13. A fiscal austerity scenario: shifting external imbalances

14. A coordinated employment growth scenario Stronger stimuli, targeted to jobs, to greener technologies, and to private investment Internationally coordinated to avert speculative attacks and protectionist responses, aimed at correcting imbalances Effective debt-work out initiatives Development oriented (infrastructure, know how, market access, etc.)

15. The employment growth scenario growth delivers

16. The employment growth scenario employment catches up faster

17. The employment growth scenario external imbalances improve

18. The employment growth scenario fiscal balances improve

19. Conclusion: what lies ahead for the next 10 years? At the trough of the recent recession, attention to policy action and international coordination grew, winning the policy debate But stimuli were inadequate A sluggish recovery is changing the ground, likely bringing back the world economy to a new recession Genuine alternatives are feasible, but these must persuade, hopefully before a deeper crisis