Presentation on theme: "GEO GLAM G20 Meeting Geneva, 22-23 September 2011 WMO Organisation, 7 Rue de la Paix GEO AG 07 03 – Preparatory G20 GEOGLAM Meeting 1 JRC MARS activities."— Presentation transcript:
GEO GLAM G20 Meeting Geneva, September 2011 WMO Organisation, 7 Rue de la Paix GEO AG – Preparatory G20 GEOGLAM Meeting 1 JRC MARS activities on Crop Monitoring Present and Future prospects Olivier LEO, Acting Head of Unit MARS /
New technologies in agriculture?
Information Needs and Challenges EU has a unique experience of science and innovation in support to Agriculture governance Thanks to the conjunction, at the end of the 80s, of Strong information requirements Need to define pan- european methods and standards (progressively extended from 12 to 27 Member states) Availability of news technologies: Remote sensing, ITC and Geomatics ( GIS, GPS…) … and to a close collaboration between EC Services (AGRI –JRC) on the MARS Program initiated in 1988
EC manage Common market Organisation(s) and need timely yield forecast to coordinate EU MS and propose appropriate decisions (intervention funds) Global Agriculture markets entered in a status of high volatility since Mid 2006 Overall tension due to low stocks increasing demand and possible climatic risks in the main cereals belts Global markets very nervous a few month before main harvests Crucial need of independent reliable short term forecast Information Needs and Challenges Graph courtesy from DG AGRI Low stocks High stocks Russian embargo
USDA decreases estimates Raising concerns for Russia / Black Sea drought Russia declares embargo UKR declares export quota
FR- G20 Agriculture and price Volatility Summit of G 20 Ministers of Agriculture - Paris, June 2011 A detailed Action Plan, incl. 2 initiatives to increase market transparency - Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) by FAO + WB, IFPRI and all - Global Agriculture Monitoring (GAM) by GEO Community of practice
The EC, as Member of the G20 signed the declaration and the Action plan on Agriculture price volatility DG AGRI strongly supports the 2 Initiatives on market transparency Improve EU timely information on stocks for AMIS AGRI front line Sharing MARS and GLOBCAST results with other stakeholders, as a contribution to GEO –GLAM JRC H04 Position included in the draft EC Report to EU Council and Parliament (August 2011) FR- G20 Agriculture and price Volatility
Statistical infrastructure Remote Sensing infrastructure Meteorological infrastructure Crop model infrastructure Crop yield forecasts MARS crop monitoring system Qualitative Info Campaign monitoring in SPACE and TIME Quantitative Info Link to biophysical parameters Related data bases General design
General Data /information Chain of Crop Monitoring Data providers EO Land Climate Atm circ. models + Ground Meteo Ex: SPOT, ESA NASA, ECMWF OMM * Operational Pre & post- processing EO & crop models Ex: MARS –OP G2 BIOPAR USGS, etc * Expert analysis & reporting Crop Monitoring Yield forecast Early Warning Ex : JRC-MARS, FEWSNET, USDA FAS CCAS, IKI, etc * Response or Policy Analysis (Agriculture, Trade, Food Security) Ex : DG AGRI, EEAS-ECHO USAID, USDA FAO, WFP FSNAU * Research and system development
ECHO DG TRADE General framework MARS crop monitoring MARS Crop monitoring system Global data infrastructure FOOD SEC AGRI4CAST GEO Community of Practice Climate change impact Crop monitoring Yield forecast Area estimates Early warning Research ServicesSupport DG. AGRI EEAS DG ENTR GMES MARS OP (1-2-3) ALTERRA VITO MeteoConsult, GISAT NRT Acquisition and processing Earth Observation Meteo (obs. /forecast ) Visualizatio n tools / DB Crop simulation Stakehold ers and Partners UN FAO, WFP Collaborative Agreements with US, BR, Arg, China, KZ, Mo.; UA, CRA, RCMRD, SOW-VU NL USDA, FEWSNET 30 staff staff 1.5 Mio / Y EFSA ESTATDG. DEVCO
Use of MARS Bulletins by DG AGRI 23 Monitoring or crop forecast bulletins (2011) Discussed in Outlook Committees meetings Results are integrated in DG AGRI CROPS NEWSLETTER with Market price and global trade analysis
MARS GLOBCAST Project General objectives a feasibility Study to cover the globe Monitor the impact of weather in the main grain producing areas Produce short-term forecasts 4 Zones of the world main crops of interest: Wheat, barley, rice, maize, rape seed, soybean, sugar cane GLOBCAST is a feasibility study currently conducted for DG AGRICULTURE
Feasibility Study GLOBCAST Study Content (Phase ) Conceptualize the system (DB, models, tools) Run pre-operational tests Assess the possible implementation within an enlarged operational MARS system Develop of a roadmap for a future implementation of GLOBCAST, in the new context of G20 GAM GLOBCAST is a feasibility study currently conducted for DG AGRICULTURE GLOBCAST main elements of a model and data driven Decision Support System
Method based on RS + derived parameters Regression against NUTS2 Official yield figures Cumulated values along different parts of the growing season at NUTS 2 (region) level within Arable Land
Sharing MARS Data / Model Infrastructure MARS global information infrastructure, Co funded by DG AGRI and JRC Partly outsourced ( MARS OP ALTERRA VITO Consortium) Combines Multi sources (Meteo, EO, ECMWF models)… with specific crop development & statistical models....
MARS Viewer provides online access and query to CGMS databases and models outputs The system is already since 2011 regularly used by 6 FAO GIEWS Analysts... and efficient user (analyst) interface Sharing MARS Data / Model Infrastructure
Linking information to decision The best information has no value without an appropriate link with decision –Need of legitimate information –And consensus making process In Case of crisis, The IPC (Integrated FS Phase Classification) is a interesting example in the sense –it is implemented by a global technical partnership including 7 key organizations: UN (FAO, WFP), Donors (USAID-FewsNet, EC-JRC) NGOs (CARE, Oxfam, Save the Children). –IPC provides a logical framework to classify and map the severity – extension of food insecurity situations and provide information for decision support. Analysis is based on an evidence- based, well documented, consensus building approach among technical food security experts …
Possible Way Forwards - Future Milestones As far EU partnership is concerned (27 MS incl 4+1 G 20) MARS CGMS expert meeting November – Add on event with EU Experts ? Pilot and road map for EU pasture and forage quantitative Forecast (March 2012) Final report of GLOBCAST 1 Discussion on senarii and implementation road map (May June 2012) MARS Conference 20 years of Bulletins (2 nd Half 2012) Bring together High EU Policy level AGRI DEVCO and EU MS
Possible Way Forwards - Future Milestones As far Globe is concerned Review of use of MARS data system by FAO GIEWS and WFP (12 November TBC) 3 rd CRAM Conference JRC-FEWSNET FAO (Nairobi Sept 2011) Side GEO JECAM and Training How will we react together in the next crisis… ie a major climatic event affecting one of our key Cereal Belts? Inputs to the Rapid Response FORUM ?