1. Bridging The Divide Between Climate Change and Human Development Thomas Acker Adrian Davenport Dean Howard Smith

2. Veerle Vandeweerd UNDP There is a broad global consensus that the severity of the climate change problem will have profound and lasting impacts on human well being and economic development, particularly amongst those countries and communities that have contributed the least to the problem, and have the least capacities to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change.

3. Adaptation  Changing existing policies and practices and adopting new policies and practices in the face of climate change and its associated impacts (UNDP unpublished, 2006).  What to do since climate change is happening.  Dealing with the problems that will happen  This will require the development of new markets and products in addition to policy changes.

4. Mitigation  The ultimate objective of the Convention is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.  What to do to stop it?  How do we avoid making a bigger mess?  This will require the development of new markets and products in addition to policy changes.

5. IPCC Concerns Many millions more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Those densely- populated and low-lying areas where adaptive capacity is relatively low, and which already face other challenges such as tropical storms or local coastal subsidence, are especially at risk. The numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas of Asia and Africa while small islands are especially vulnerable

6. OXFAM 2009 By 2015 more than 375m people are likely to be affected by climate related disasters – a projected increase of 54% – and this threatens to overwhelm the world’s current capacity to respond. By 2015 more than 375m people are likely to be affected by climate related disasters – a projected increase of 54% – and this threatens to overwhelm the world’s current capacity to respond.

7. Africa  By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to climate change. If coupled with increased demand, this will adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate water-related problems.

8. Africa Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries and regions is projected to be severely compromised by climate variability and change… In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020.

9. Africa Local food supplies are projected to be negatively affected by decreasing fisheries resources in large lakes due to rising water temperatures, which may be exacerbated by continued over-fishing. Lake Chad 1963 2007

10. Africa New studies confirm that Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change because of multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity. “Get up Joe, we’re leaving.”

11. The Global Heartache No community with a sense of justice, compassion or respect for basic human rights should accept the current pattern of adaptation. Leaving the world’s poor to sink or swim with their own meagre resources in the face of the threat posed by climate change is morally wrong. We are drifting into a world of ‘adaptation apartheid’. Desmond Tutu

12. World Bank (Old Data) 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity.

13. Bridging the Divide Between Poverty Reduction and Climate Change Through Sustainable and Innovative Energy Technologies SCALING UP SUSTAINABLE ENERGY INNOVATIONS THAT CAN ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE CONCERNS AND POVERTY REDUCTION NEEDS December 2009 Dr. Anilla Cherian UNDP

14. “Climate change will affect every aspect of human life, and disproportionately on those poorer and more vulnerable countries and communities, that have contributed the least to the causes.” “Increasing and improving access to cost-effective, innovative, and sustainable energy technologies for the poor is critical for addressing both climate change and poverty reduction concerns in many developing countries.” “International cooperation on adaptation can be thought of as an insurance mechanism for the world’s poor…For governments concerned with achieving progress toward the MDGs over the next decade and building on that progress afterwards, adaptation is the only option for limiting the damage caused by existing climate change.”

15. Millennium Development Goals By 2015?  Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger  Achieve universal primary education  Promote gender equality and empower women  Reduce child mortality

16. Millennium Development Goals  Improve mental health  Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases  Ensure environmental stability  Develop a global partnership for development

17. 2010 MDG Report  "It is clear that improvements in the lives of the poor have been unacceptably slow, and some hard- won gains are being eroded by the climate, food and economic crises," UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon

18. What is your Reality ?

19. The Concerns  Indoor cooking –Over 2 million deaths per year  Potable water –Extreme disease –Distances to carry  Food stress  Overall health  Education  Singing and dancing

20. UNDP A clear positive causative correlation between energy access and use and the resulting level of development This woman walks 12 km one way daily for water. How productive is she earning a living?

21. The Kenya Design  200 houses  100 Kw wind turbine  Hydro pumping and co-generation  H 2 O pumping and desalination  Irrigation  Grain mill  Compressed air vehicle  Design on board

22. BP Solar SPOTS  Home lighting has increased the productivity of households primarily because of the 4 to 5.5 additional hours put into traditional income generating activities.  The incidence of waterborne diseases in SPOTS areas has decreased from 17.72% (2003) to 0.9% (2005).

23. The provision of solar powered vaccine refrigerator for health centers has increased the accessibility of health services. Street lights have also encouraged the expansion of business activities from within the confines of the homes to the roadsides. Introduction of electric lighting systems in 80 schools increased educational performance and allowed for adult education in the evening. More than 80 cooperatives created under SPOTS 1 are generating income from the operation of several businesses. More than 350 “Solar Operators”, of which about 100 are women, have been trained to maintain and repair the systems.

25. UNPP Projections (2008) (thousands) 20106 908 688 20157 302 186 20207 674 833 20258 011 533 20308 308 895 20358 570 570 20408 801 196 20458 996 344 20509 149 984 How many are too many?

26. Obama at Copenhagen We must have financing that helps developing countries adapt, particularly the least-developed and most vulnerable to climate change. America will be a part of fast-start funding that will ramp up to $10 billion in 2012. We must have financing that helps developing countries adapt, particularly the least-developed and most vulnerable to climate change. America will be a part of fast-start funding that will ramp up to $10 billion in 2012.

27. More Promises And, yesterday, Secretary Clinton made it clear that we will engage in a global effort to mobilize $100 billion in financing by 2020, if - and only if - it is part of the broader accord that I have just described. Her Reality?

28. Can it be Achieved?  Mitigation. Transparency. And financing. It is a clear formula - one that embraces the principle of common but differentiated responses and respective capabilities. And it adds up to a significant accord - one that takes us farther than we have ever gone before as an international community. December 18, 2009, Copenhagen UN Climate Change Conference 2009.

29. Basic Economics Link the revenues from the cap & trade programs that internalize the externalities to the actual adaptation and mitigation costs arising from climate change. Solar pumps in Africa increase agricultural productivity and access to water. Courtesy of UNEP.

30. Determining the Full price  Very difficult as we have seen  Revenues must be linked to alleiating the external costs – adaptation in this case

31. Our Guess Obama meant $100 billion per year

32. Tim Flannery’s Model  Use Ebay-type auctions to buy/sell CO 2 permits for reforestation in Central America  Villages build business plans  Satellite and blogs for verification  Coordinate via Greenpeace or WWF

33. Some Simple, but Chunky, Math  200 houses per village  5 people per household  1,600,000,000 Number of people in need of electricity  1,600,000 number of villages

34. $100,000,000,000 Per Year cost per village1 million2.5 million5 million villages 100,000 40,000 20,000 houses 20,000,000 8,000,000 4,000,000 people per year 100,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 total needing electricity 1,600,000,000 # of years164080 ME 451 class project, Fall 2010 Recall, there are no manufacturers!

35. World Energy Outlook 2009  OECD countries energy related emissions  Target 7,700,000,000 gigatonnes  Target the 450 ppm scenario –Many feel this is very high  Target $50/tonne carbon valuation  $385,000,000,000 total revenue per year  Don’t begin until 2030

36. $385 Billion per year cost per village1 million2.5 million5 million villages 385,000 154,000 77,000 houses 77,000,000 30,800,000 15,400,000 people per year 385,000,000 154,000,000 77,000,000 total needing electricity 1,600,000,000 # of years4.1610.3920.78 Strange presumption that all revenues go to this project

37. Step Fashion cost per village1 million2.5 million5 million by 2030 1,000,000,000 400,000,000 200,000,000 needed after 2030 600,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,400,000,000 years post 20301.67.818.2 $100B/year starting in 2020 and then $385B/year

38. Weak Assumptions  All money will go to the electrification projects –No additional expenses for adaptation or mitigation  No increase in electricity needs –All new population has no need  No replacements over the project life  Recall: 75-250 million in Africa alone prior to 2020 in food and water stress

39. Conclusion  Climate change will have serious consequences for those least able to adapt.  COE charges can be used to ameliorate the situation by providing access to clean electricity and energy  The timing simply doesn’t work

40. Need  As Tim Flannery says “Now or Never.” For many families: never.  People under water (too much and/or too little) and food stress simply have to move.  Where will they go?  Matt deQueljoe’s new project  http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/globa l/hdr2009/ http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/globa l/hdr2009/ http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/globa l/hdr2009/