1. 21-9-20151 THE IMPACT OF THE AVIATION SECTOR ON CLIMATE CHANGE – A MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS OF POSSSIBLE POLICY MEASURES Annalia Bernardini, Cathy Macharis Department MOSI - Transport and Logistics XII Scientific Meeting of the Italian Society of Transport Economics (SIET) Rome, 17-18 June 2010 Image source: www.london-lutoninthecommunity.co.uk/environment/www.london-lutoninthecommunity.co.uk/environment/

2. VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 2 Overview 1.The Aviation and the Belgian Climate Policy Project (ABC) and Multicriteria Analysis (MCA) 2.MCA-PROMETHEE method 3.PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project 4.Conclusion

3. VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek Climate system elements Image source: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program Vision for the Program and Highlights of the Scientific Strategic Plan; A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (July, 2003), modified by MOSI-T

4. VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 4 1. The ABC project and MCA ABC  Policy options groups:  Technology R&D investments  Operational efficiencies/Infrastructures  Market based measures MCA  Provides a framework to evaluate the effectiveness of those climate policy options (alternatives) through a set of criteria:  Climate performance  Feasibility  Large scale implementation  Socio-economic impact

5. VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 5 2. MCA-PROMETHEE method  definition of the problems/goals to be achieved  identification of the criteria  prioritization of the alternatives MCA 

6. VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 6 2. MCA-PROMETHEE method PROMETHEE & GAIA, developed by Prof. J.P. Brans and Prof. B. Mareschal at the (U.L.B. and V.U.B., 1983), Prof. C. Macharis, Prof. J.P. Brans and Prof. B. Mareschal, PROMETHEE GDSS, (1998) PROMETHEE   allows the user to directly exploit the data (alternatives a n, criteria f k ) of the problem in a simple evolutive multicriteria table (Performance Matrix)  extensive sensitivity analyses as well as visual representations (GAIA) of the data are available to the decision-maker  particularly userfriendly software D-Sight, used for the ABC Impacts policy options assessment

7. VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 7 3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project Goal Policy options to reduce the total aviation climate impact Criteria Alternatives

8. VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project The ABC consortium expert assessment of all the alternatives on all the criteria Performance Matrix with high scores 8

9. VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project PROMETHEE I 01

10. VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project PROMETHEE II

11. VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project Walking Weights

12. VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 4. Conclusion  ABC Impacts project second phase. Ranking of the policy measures is still under discussion within the ABC research consortium  ABC Stakeholders feedback assessment to determine the respective criteria weights  By applying a MCA it is possible to some extent to delineate an appropriate platform for future climate policy options compromises  D-Sight software application has shown to be a valuable tool related to a complex decision problem on behalf of sustainable transport policy support 12

13. VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek Thank you for your attention More ABC details and information available on: http://www.climate.be/abci http://www.vub.ac.be/MOSI-T