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Observations on: The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan: Pattern Recognition Lorcan Dempsey VP Research and Chief Strategist CNI Spring 2004 Task Force Meeting.

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Presentation on theme: "Observations on: The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan: Pattern Recognition Lorcan Dempsey VP Research and Chief Strategist CNI Spring 2004 Task Force Meeting."— Presentation transcript:

1 Observations on: The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan: Pattern Recognition Lorcan Dempsey VP Research and Chief Strategist CNI Spring 2004 Task Force Meeting Alexandria, April 16 2004

2 Overview The library community?

3 The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan Customary Board of Trustees 3 year review This year: –Worldwide scan –User perspective –In format for sharing with membership

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5 Pattern recognition We have no future because our present is too volatile. We have only risk management. The spinning of the given moments scenarios. Pattern recognition … We have no future because our present is too volatile. We have only risk management. The spinning of the given moments scenarios. Pattern recognition …

6 Worldwide Scan 29 countries selected 60% of the worlds population 85% of worlds gross domestic product 100 people interviewed

7 Scan content Social Economic Technical Research & learning Library

8 Economic Technical Research & learning Library The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The Social

9 Trends The Amazoogle effect Generations The fabric of collaboration The value of the library Technology is what has been invented since you were born Alan Kay

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11 Abuzz Advice Trader Answers.com Ask An Expert Sources.com AskERIC AskJeevesAskVRD.org Ask the Old Buzzard CNNs Ask an Expert Page Consejos practicos Google Answers Internet Public Library Ask A Question Keen.com Pregunta a los expertos Taxcafe Wondir Ask Auntie Nolo AskBAR Experts.com Poser un question Ask-A-Geologist As Ask Volcanologist Ask Dr. Math Ask Dr. Universe Ask Shamu How Things Work MAD Scientist Network NASA Quest Pregunte a un expero Schools Online Project ScienceLine Scientific-American: Ask the Expert Ammdoc.com Buscamed Eclevelandclinic.com Econsults.partners.org Enviar pregunta Expertdoc.net Findcancerexperts.com Go Ask Alice Mdexpert.com Physician referral center Poser une question Pregunte a RxExpress Ask Joan of Art National Museum of Art Reference Desk Ask Made iVillage AskLISA Laboratorio de estudos urbanos Internet search & answer Social landscape OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003)

12 By 2007, Amazon.coms revenue from microcontent sales will exceed $500million. (0.6 probability) By 2007, Amazon.coms revenue from microcontent sales will exceed $500million. (0.6 probability) Microcontent OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003) http://search.yahoo.com/top2003 Last Minute Addition: Last Minute Addition: Worldwide Microcontent Market 2003 - $1Billion Includes: ring tones, logos, screen savers, micro games, etc. Worldwide Microcontent Market 2003 - $1Billion Includes: ring tones, logos, screen savers, micro games, etc. Top Ten Tech Searches 2003 1.Ringtones 2.Digital Cameras 3.Mobile Phones 4.HDTV 5.MP3 Players 6.iPod 7.TiVo 8.Plasma TV 9.DVD-R 10.Camcorders Top Ten Tech Searches 2003 1.Ringtones 2.Digital Cameras 3.Mobile Phones 4.HDTV 5.MP3 Players 6.iPod 7.TiVo 8.Plasma TV 9.DVD-R 10.Camcorders

13 The Amazoogle effect Three perceived attributes? –Comprehensive –Accessible –Immediate gratification The net generation doesnt love a wall

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15 The fabric of collaboration: Social software The collaboration technology fabric OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003)

16 Social landscape Trends Net generation –Self-sufficiency –Seamlessness –Abundance Library –Increasingly called to define value against the Amazoogle horizon –Opportunity and challenge

17 Social Technical Research & learning Library The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic Economic

18 Changes in funding of the public good –Normal cycles or permanent changes? Sources of library / education funds Uses of library funds –Resource allocations –Trends, shifts Economic landscape

19 Library spending U.S., Japan, U.K., Italy and France represent nearly 75% of the total estimated 2000 worldwide library spending $29 billion LibEcon (August 2003)

20 Uses of library funds Staff 53% Materials stock 27% Materials stock 27% Other 17% Other 17% eContent/subscriptions 3% ARL libraries 2001-02 46% 33% 14% 7% Worldwide average for libraries in sample countries 2000-01 LibEcon (August 2003); ARL (2003)

21 Trends Questioning the value of the public good –Education –Public services Need for evidence of value

22 Social Economic Research & learning Library The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical Technical

23 Technology landscape A non-Library technology review Where we looked and who we consulted: –Technology periodicals / publications –Leading technology vendors –Top technology analysts

24 Trends Ambient connectivity and embedded computation Unplug and play Coping with abundance Open source Convenience vs privacy

25 A new era – ambient and embedded Adapted from: Gartner Inc. 2003

26 Ambient and embedded In an electronically nomadicised world I have become a two-legged terminal, an ambulatory IP address, maybe even a wireless router in an ad hoc mobile network. Those who just want a simpler life may choose to unplug, and to live off the grid in Idaho. But for this particular early 21 st Century nodular subject, disconnection would be amputation. I am part of the networks and the networks are part of me. … I am visible to Google. I link therefore I am.

27 Unplug and play Common services Content services Application services Presentation services The User Software pieces Web services Distributed Software pieces Web services Distributed OCLC Research (August 2003) Google API Amazon API In 2002, 6.2% of Amazon revenues, or $246 million, came from using Web services to become an e- commerce platform. Google API Amazon API In 2002, 6.2% of Amazon revenues, or $246 million, came from using Web services to become an e- commerce platform.

28 How to organize a new abundance? Role of library approaches?

29 Hype or Hope? How close are we to the Semantic Web that Tim Berners-Lee describes? Yes, and my American garage door talks to my Belgian toaster, and they agree I am hungry. Great idea. I think it will take a long time to realize, and that we will go through several generation of enabling technologies before we find ones that are suitable to actually get the job done. Herbert Van de Sompel Saltons Home Hub 2004 Consumer Electronic Show

30 Social Technical Library Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning Economic Research & learning

31 Research & learning landscape Changing pattern of research and learning behaviours –…–… Changing patterns of scholarly communication Lifelong learning trends The need for place –Social exchange

32 Learning for work Learn, adapt, change In 2001, US$23 billion In Fortunes 100 fastest growing companies, 2 of top 10 are e-learning companies $400 million in Asia Pacific by 2005

33 oclc taskforce on elearning Diffusion of information skills and use through the learning process Life cycle management of learning materials Systems interaction between library and learning management systems Picture courtesy Dan Rehak, Carnegie Mellon University ?

34 Scholarly information flow peer-reviewed journals publish, discovery discovery, linking, embedding discovery, harvesting Aggregators Learning & teaching Research and e-science Picture adapted from Liz Lyon Conferences, abstracting and indexing services, etc. validation Repositories Data creation, capture and gathering, lab experiments fieldwork, surveys, grids media… harvesting Courses, modules, learning management systems, learning portals… Data analysis, transformation, mining, modeling Learning object creation, reuse deposit, self archiving

35 Complex –Resource management –Personal, institutional, other –relationships A service and role question

36 Social Economic Technical Research & learning The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The Library

37 Interviews Libraries should reallocate positions to newer kinds of jobs: digital scholarship, open source projects, etc. Librarians cannot change user behavior and so need to meet the user.

38 Interviews Paper content is being moved off- site to make room for things like cafes and information commons, but what stays and what goes? We do not have good tools for these decisions. The idea of the balancedbut unread collection is disappearing.

39 Collections grid highlow high stewardship uniqueness Books Journals Newspapers Gov. docs CD, DVD Maps Scores Special collections Rare books Local/Historical newspapers Local history materials Archives & Manuscripts, Theses & dissertations Research and learning materials ePrints/tech reports Learning objects Courseware E-portfolios Research data Freely-accessible web resources Open source software Newsgroup archives

40 Some issues Mainstreaming special collections Engagement with research and learning Grant funding Mainstreaming special collections Engagement with research and learning Grant funding Does structure of costs reflect new roles? Reallocation of resources? Does structure of costs reflect new roles? Reallocation of resources? Digital resource management. Skills Digital resource management. Skills

41 Application architecture Common services Content services Application services Presentation services The User Im looking for something through my librarys portal. OCLC Research (August 2003)

42 Directory: ILL policy Application architecture Common services Content services Application services Presentation services The User Authentication Directory: user profile Query broker Directory: service description Reference db Request broker Circ/ILL system OpenURL resolver Directory: local knowledge base Article db OCLC Research (August 2003)

43 Interconnected library environment More complex library systems environment –ILS, portal, resource sharing, resolver, digital asset management, … More complex institutional systems environment –Learning management system, university portal, local government portal, … Growing use of shared services –Directory, identity management, trust management, …

44 And … Social Economic Technical Research & learning Library

45 Trends & implications Technology Library Economic Social OCLC Research public good e-learning e-commerce seamless Web services rights management Open-source self-sufficient collaboration search global membership

46 A turning point Engagement with research, learning and living in new ways Create value Skills and values

47 www.oclc.org/membership/escan Read the full report Print copies available at same URL $15 to cover print and postage

48 The pattern is new … The knowledge imposes a pattern and falsifies For the pattern is new in every moment The knowledge imposes a pattern and falsifies For the pattern is new in every moment


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