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THE RISKS OF LIFE Video Conference 5 Media & Misinformation

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Newspaper Headlines Daily Mail Obesity worse for cancer than smoking Is anything safe to eat? Cancer report adds bacon, ham and drink to danger list Guardian Stay trim and stop eating bacon, cancer report declares The Sun Bacon butty cancer risk Careless pork costs lives Shock Cancer Alert. Save Our Bacon. Storm as Butties Branded Killers!

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Butties Branded Killers! OCTOBER 2007

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The reason behind the headlines World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) issued a report on the influences of nutrition and physical activity on Cancer. They gave 10 recommendations for Cancer prevention

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WCRF Recommendation Avoid processed meats such as bacon, ham, salami, corned beef and some sausages

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The Evidence The Convincing Evidence states that there is a 20% increased risk of bowel cancer per 50g of daily processed meat

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What is this really saying? Report 20% increased risk of bowel cancer per 50g daily processed meat Fact Approximately 5 out of every 100 people will get bowel cancer during their life. Conclusion Eating a huge bacon sandwich every day increases the number of people getting bowel cancer to 6 out of every 100.

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Simpsons Paradox You are suffering from a terrible illness. There are two drugs you can take to cure this illness: (1) Drug A (2) Drug B Both drugs are put on trial

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Drug ADrug B Day 1 Day 2 Total

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Drug ADrug B Day 1 Cures 63 out of 90 people Day 2 Total

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Drug ADrug B Day 1 Cures 63 out of 90 people 70% Day 2 Total

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Drug ADrug B Day 1 Cures 63 out of 90 people 70% Cures 8 out of 10 people Day 2 Total

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Drug ADrug B Day 1 Cures 63 out of 90 people 70% Cures 8 out of 10 people 80% Day 2 Total

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Drug ADrug B Day 1 Cures 63 out of 90 people 70% Cures 8 out of 10 people 80% Day 2 Cures 4 out of 10 people Total

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Drug ADrug B Day 1 Cures 63 out of 90 people 70% Cures 8 out of 10 people 80% Day 2 Cures 4 out of 10 people 40% Total

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Drug ADrug B Day 1 Cures 63 out of 90 people 70% Cures 8 out of 10 people 80% Day 2 Cures 4 out of 10 people 40% Cures 45 out of 90 people Total

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Drug ADrug B Day 1 Cures 63 out of 90 people 70% Cures 8 out of 10 people 80% Day 2 Cures 4 out of 10 people 40% Cures 45 out of 90 people 50% Total

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Drug ADrug B Day 1 Cures 63 out of 90 people 70% Cures 8 out of 10 people 80% Day 2 Cures 4 out of 10 people 40% Cures 45 out of 90 people 50% Total Which is the better drug?

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Drug ADrug B Day 1 Cures 63 out of 90 people 70% Cures 8 out of 10 people 80% Day 2 Cures 4 out of 10 people 40% Cures 45 out of 90 people 50% Total Cures 67 out of 100 people Which is the better drug?

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Drug ADrug B Day 1 Cures 63 out of 90 people 70% Cures 8 out of 10 people 80% Day 2 Cures 4 out of 10 people 40% Cures 45 out of 90 people 50% Total Cures 67 out of 100 people 67% Which is the better drug?

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Drug ADrug B Day 1 Cures 63 out of 90 people 70% Cures 8 out of 10 people 80% Day 2 Cures 4 out of 10 people 40% Cures 45 out of 90 people 50% Total Cures 67 out of 100 people 67% Cures 53 out of 100 people Which is the better drug?

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Drug ADrug B Day 1 Cures 63 out of 90 people 70% Cures 8 out of 10 people 80% Day 2 Cures 4 out of 10 people 40% Cures 45 out of 90 people 50% Total Cures 67 out of 100 people 67% Cures 53 out of 100 people 53% Which is the better drug?

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Drug A is Better! You will reach the incorrect solution if you only consider the daily percentage results. You are not comparing like with like. Sports statistics, exam results are often reported in this way and can be misleading if the data isnt interpreted correctly.

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Football League Tables

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Which is the better team? PlayedWinLoseDrawPoints Man Utd12831 3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw

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Which is the better team? PlayedWinLoseDrawPoints Man Utd1283125 3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw

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Which is the better team? PlayedWinLoseDrawPoints Man Utd1283125 Arsenal13616 3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw

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Which is the better team? PlayedWinLoseDrawPoints Man Utd1283125 Arsenal1361624 3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw

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Which is the better team? PlayedWinLoseDrawPoints Man Utd12831 2 points for a win and 1 point for a draw

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Which is the better team? PlayedWinLoseDrawPoints Man Utd1283117 2 points for a win and 1 point for a draw

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Which is the better team? PlayedWinLoseDrawPoints Man Utd1283117 Arsenal13616 2 points for a win and 1 point for a draw

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Which is the better team? PlayedWinLoseDrawPoints Man Utd1283117 Arsenal1361618 2 points for a win and 1 point for a draw

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PlayedWinLoseDrawPoints Man Utd1283125 Arsenal1361624 3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw 2 points for a win and 1 point for a draw PlayedWinLoseDrawPoints Man Utd1283117 Arsenal1361618

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Medical and Security Testing

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Suppose there are 100 students in your year group, and one of which has stolen another students lunch money. To find the thief everyone undergoes a lie detector test which has an accuracy of 95%. The lie detector says you are a thief. What is the chance you are actually the thief? What is the chance you are actually the thief? 17% 84% 5%95% 7 8 10 28

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Understanding Uncertainty Bayes Theorem animation

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Statistics used in Court Sally Clark On the 9th November 1999, Sally Clark, was convicted of the murder of her first two children.

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What was said in Court? Chances of 1 child dying from SIDS = 1 in 6,500 Chance of both children dying from SIDS = 1 in 73,000 000 Was Sally Clark guilty?

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What wasnt said in court? The birth of two children are NOT exclusively independent events.

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What wasnt said in court? Statistics of two babies dying from the same mother: One third caused by rare but known natural causes (not SIDS). One third associated with child abuse. One third true SIDS deaths. 2 in 3 chance of innocence, rather than a 1 in 73 million chance of innocence.

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What wasnt said in court? Probability of a mother murdering 2 of her own children is 1 in 2,200,000,000 Much lower than the probability of both children dying from SIDS 1 in 73,000,000

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Compulsory Investigation Using probability to understand medical and security test results.

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