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Medical Course of Action Tool Basics of using M-COAT.

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Presentation on theme: "Medical Course of Action Tool Basics of using M-COAT."— Presentation transcript:

1 Medical Course of Action Tool Basics of using M-COAT

2 2 Agenda Introduction Agenda Learning Objectives Problem Statement Casualty Estimation Methods Medical Course of Action Tool Conclusion

3 3 Learning Objectives To introduce the fundamental principles of casualty estimation and their effect on CHS planning. To teach the basics of using the Medical Course of Action Tool.

4 4 Problem Statement There is no Army approved automated tool for conducting casualty estimation and CHS course of action planning for division and below operations –Kuhn Study / JCS Guide Corps level casualty estimation, can drill down to Division –FM vol 2 - Division and above –ARIs Commanders Battle Staff Handbook - Battalion level casualty estimation –Medical Analysis Tool (MAT) Corps and above Course of Action tool Does NOT do Casualty Estimation

5 5 Casualty Estimation for 1003V (US/Coalition Forces) Used numerous tools: –Medical Analysis Tool –CJSC 3161, Casualty Planner –US AMEDD DNBI Data –FM 8-55 –Dupey Attrition Model -1% and 3% –MCOAT (Medical Course of Action Tool) –ACE (Army Casualty Estimate) 34 days (19 Mar – 20 April) Shock and Awe approx 1% for TBCs and 4% for DNBI Source: BG Weightman AUSA Presentation 2004

6 6 Casualty Estimation Methods FM Volume 2 OPLOG Planner G1/G4 Battle Book Logistics Estimation Worksheet JCS Guide 3161 Dice Agree to what the Commander says Modified Dupuy Method

7 7 Background M-COAT was originally developed in Force Structure and Analysis at Fort Sam Houston, TX in 1998 Confusion on whether it is a casualty estimation tool or medical workload tool – it is a medical workload tool Available on AKO 70B Toolkit ( ). It is NOT AMEDD approved!!!!

8 8 AKO Folder – 70B Toolkit

9 9 M-COAT Overview Based on COL Trevor Dupuys casualty estimation method from Attrition (Nova Pub. 1995) Conventional casualty estimation method only Intended to serve as TACTICAL level Course of Action Tool Casualty Estimation is a critical Battle Staff Task –Medical Requirements –Personnel Replacements Not intended to serve as a Force Structure or Programming tool! A Low Cost, Low Risk, Near Term Solution

10 10 M-COAT Five Modules –Casualty Estimation –Patient Flow- RTD and Evac Losses –Workload Evacuation Requirement and Capability Operating Room Req. and Cap. Hospital Bed Req. and Cap. –Medical Supply –Basis of Allocation Rules Excel Spreadsheet Based

11 11 M-COAT Casualty Estimation (cont) Nine Factors that affect WIA rates: –Population at risk (PAR) –Terrain (17 variables) –Weather (12 variables) –Posture (8 variables)* –Strength (17 variables) * Denotes areas that are modified from Dupuys original formula –Opposition (31 variables)* –Surprise (4 variables) –Sophistication (15 variables)* –Operational Form (5 variables)* 258,019,200 combinations x PAR

12 12 M-COAT Casualty Estimation (cont) Three Factors that affect DNBI –Population At Risk –Battlefield Location (5 variables) –Geographic Location (36 variables) Based on Force Structure and Analysis DNBI rates

13 13 M-COAT Modules Patient Flow- Derived from TAA05 patient flow Workload - Uses FM 8-55 evacuation planning factors Class VIII consumption- Medical Resupply Sets, FST supplies, and Blood Basis of Allocation rules (MRI and MF2K)

14 14 A Graphic Comparison Of Various Casualty Estimation Methods Casualty Estimate (Standard Error of the Estimate) Based on 13 Battles ( ) +1566%-1566% G1/G4 Battle Book +1416%-1416% FM %-30% M-COAT (Modified Dupuy) +42%-42% Dupuy

15 15 Medical Course of Action Tool

16 16 Conventional vs. Operations Other Than War M-COATConventionalOOTW PostureOffensiveRecon - Screen OppositionSignificant Advantage Overwhelming Advantage SurpriseMinorSubstantial Pattern of Operation Disrupted FrontRecon Examples of the different settings that COULD be used

17 17 Conventional vs. Operations Other Than War M-COATConventionalOOTW Total Battle Casualties WIA16155 KIA2810 Examples of the different settings that COULD be used Example – Constant: 5k Soldiers, Urban, Dry Sunshine, No Sophistication Advantage Vary: Posture, Opposition, Surprise and Pattern of Operation

18 18 Medical Course of Action Tool

19 19 Airborne Operations Estimates the additional number of casualties that suffer injury from the jump Airborne casualties are in addition to conventional casualties Influences: –Day vs. Night (night has higher casualty rate) –Equipment weight (greater weight increases casualties) –Drop Zone Conditions (harder surface increase casualties)

20 20 Creditable Casualty Range

21 21 Conclusion One of several tools available for use by medical planners, it is NOT the only / best / preferred way Routinely updated and improved based on user feedback, tell me how to make it more useful Do not hesitate to call or and ask questions

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