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1 Millennium Development Goals Jan Vandemoortele UNDP, New York.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Millennium Development Goals Jan Vandemoortele UNDP, New York."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Millennium Development Goals Jan Vandemoortele UNDP, New York

2 2 Three key questions Is MDG progress on track? Is average progress reaching the poor? Are MDGs affordable?

3 3 Poverty headcount in developing countries (below $1/day) 16%

4 4 Most regions fail to reduce poverty (below $1/day) SSA SA EA LAC MENA

5 5 Poverty trends in China

6 6 Social progress is slowing down (all developing countries) U5MR NER

7 7 No reliable and comparable data MDG progress in 1990s 40%

8 8 The poor & average progress (ratio of U5MR of bottom to top quintile)

9 9 Progress by-passes the poor (children not completing 5yrs of education)

10 10 Averages are deceiving è Different ways to meet a target by improving situation of better-off by increasing level for worse-off any combination in-between è Evidence suggests most countries follow top-down approach è Groups that see fastest progress seldom represent the poor

11 11 ðGlobal cost estimates range from $50b-$100b+ per year ðDifferences depend on: absolute vs. relative unit costs marginal vs. average unit costs regional vs. national average costs efficiency gains vs. quality costs savings from synergies implications of HIV/AIDS domestic vs. external resources ðGlobally, MDGs are affordable Are MDGs affordable?

12 12 MDG Core Strategy Millennium Project MDG Reports Millennium Campaign Operational support Where do we stand? What will it take? How to raise profile and awareness? What can we do about them?


14 14 Purpose of MDGR Public advocacy – constituency Customise targets Concise assessment, jargon-free, not prescriptive Based on existing data & analyses Involving main partners

15 15

16 16 Two incorrect conclusions World is on-track to halving global poverty by 2015 More growth automatically translates into less poverty

17 17 Risk of misplaced concreteness Averages and aggregates help us understand complex realities more easily But they do not exist in reality, only in the human mind Risk occurs when unwarranted conclusions are drawn based on deductions from abstractions, not on real observations

18 18 is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much, it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little Test of our progress FDR, 1937

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