Presentation on theme: "The Role of Interbranch Competitiveness in the Economic and Ecological Development of Russia V. Gilmundinov, T. Tagaeva Institute of Economics IE SB RAS,"— Presentation transcript:
The Role of Interbranch Competitiveness in the Economic and Ecological Development of Russia V. Gilmundinov, T. Tagaeva Institute of Economics IE SB RAS, Novosibirsk State University Novosibirsk, Russia The investigation was supported by Grant of Russian President of government support for Russian scientists, project MK-2148.2010.6
Real Exchange Rate Index of US dollar to Russian rouble in 1994-2008 (1994 = 1,0)
Russian External Trade Structural Indicators in 1994-2008, in %
Emissions (thou tons) from Stationary Sources and Motor Transport in Russia
Diseases Russia Ecologically unfavorable territories Chronic diseases of nose and accessory sinuses of nose 21 31 Chronic tonsillitis 116 239 Chronic otitis 7 9 Allergic diseases 35 180 Food allergy among children of early age 70 400 Bronchial asthma 10 24 Respiratory allergosis 48 122 Recurrent bronchitis 6 94 Vascular dystonia 12 144 Gastritis, gastroduodenitis 60 180 Nephropathy 33 187 Nervous system affection: encephalopathy, cerebral spastic infantile paralysis 30 50 IQ < 70% 30 138 congenital malformation 11 140 Prevalence of Chronic Pathology Forms among Children on an Average in Russia and in the Ecologically Unfavorable Territories (cases per 1000 children)
Morbidity Groups in Basic Illness (thou peoples) (registered patients with the first diagnosed disease)
Morbidity in Russia (registered patients with the first diagnosed disease for every thousand people)
Population Reproduction (thou peoples) Number of Birth Number of Death Increase (+) or Decrease (-) of Population 1990 1988,9 1656,0 +332,9 1995 1363,8 2203,8 -840,0 2000 1266,8 2225,3 -958,5 2003 1477,3 2365,8 -888,5 2004 1502,5 2295,4 -792,9 2005 2006 1457,4 1479,6 2303,9 2166,7 -846,5 -687,1 2007 2080,41610,1-470,3
Full Costs I-O Approach in Estimation of Environment Pressure Lets take: n as amount of branches, V p i as total annual pollution of branch i, and x i as total annual output of branch i. Then a direct pollution coefficient of branch i is calculated as follows: dp i = V p i / x i, i = 1,…, n. Full pollutant coefficient of branch j (fp j ) shows an amount of pollution produced per unit of branch j final output. Calculation of full pollution coefficient of branch i is defined by the following equation: fp j = (i=1,..n) dp i b ij, where b ij – specific coefficient of full costs I-O matrix (inverse matrix to the difference between unit matrix and input-output matrix).
Estimations of Russian Branches Environment Pressure The industries Waste water discharge coefficients, cubic m per 1 thou Rbl of output Atmospheric pollutant emissions coefficient, kilo per 1 thou Rbl of output Average annual growth rates of output in 2003-2007, % directfulldirectfull 1Power engineering0,8371,3323,5974,9421,5 2Fuel industry0,1270,5791,3022,4133,3 3Ferrous metallurgy0,6891,4342,4144,6684,7 4Non- ferrous metallurgy0,4531,1403,5626,5144,4 5 Chemical and petrochemical industry1,6362,8550,5252,3437,4 6 Machine-building and metal- working industry0,2441,1180,2142,1078,7 7 Logging, wood-working, pulp and paper industry2,5183,8680,5561,8535,1 8Building materials industry0,3120,9580,9902,6339,0 9Light industry0,2771,1140,1951,2581,6 10Food industry0,0370,8520,1070,8555,4 11Other industries0,6031,6500,3562,3776,8 12Construction0,0080,5530,1851,31414,2 13Agriculture0,9881,5530,0950,6443,0 14 Transport and communication services0,1040,5381,4522,2792,9 15Trade 0,0010,2600,0190,47513,9 16 Other branches of material production0,0140,5350,0820,7047,2 17 Non-material service 2,7543,3610,2620,9357,3 Average in Russian Economy0,8131,320,8501,3795,1
Atmospheric Pollutions and Industries Average Annual Growth Rates in Russia
Model Apparatus of Forecast Calculations System of Dynamic I-O Models of Russia Ecological Block
- gross output of industry i in year t h=1,…,m - current environmental protection cost for natural resource h w ih – coefficient of pollutant h formation (volume of polluted natural resource h, referred to manufacturing of a unit of production of industry i) - output of pollutant h (volume of pollution or destruction of a natural resource) in household. g ih (t) – current cost to recover unit of natural resource h (to destroy or to trap unit of pollutant h) in industry i (t) – volume of a recovered natural resource (destroyed or trapped pollutant) of type h - volume of pollutant h (a polluted natural resource) that gets into the natural environment without purification (or by volume of destroyed but not reproduced natural resource)
Two scenarios of the forecast were based on the following basic assumptions: 1. The dynamics of macroeconomic and sectoral indices in 2008 corresponded to the reporting data of the Federal Statistical Service of the Russian Federation. 2. The dynamics of macroeconomic and sectoral indices in 2009 were estimated with the help of reporting information of the Federal Statistical Service of the Russian Federation for four months of 2009. It was assumed that annual dynamics would not differ greatly from growth rates in the first quarter of 2009. 3. Both scenarios of the forecast proceed from the assumption that after 2009 there will be no explosive industrial recovery.
The first scenario of the forecast was constructed on the basis on the following assumptions: A. In 2010 the economy would start to emerge gradually from the crisis. In these conditions, demand for Russian exported good would grow, which would stimulate economic growth in Russia. B. Measures taken to stabilize the Russian financial system would give noticeable results in 2010 that would result in increased crediting of business and population, which, in its turn, would lead to a gradual increase of economic growth rates.
Dynamics of Branch Outputs of Russian Economy in 2008- 2012 according to the First Scenario (%, 2008 year = 100%) 2009201020112012 GDP 93,395,2100,3108,7 Extractive industry 91,292,995,798,8 Manufacturing industry 80,682,285,391,0 including Machine-building industry 85,288,1101,4120,1 Power engineering 94,290,191,594,9 Agriculture 101,5104,2103,8105,9 Construction 83,182,188,299,9 Transport 84,787,388,191,5 Trade 99,9102,9111,9126,9 Other branches of material production 98,685,587,993,6 Non-material service 91,289,294,6103,6
The second scenario of the forecast was constructed on the basis on the following assumptions: A. Measures taken to stabilize world economy would be starting to bring positive results by the end of 2009 already. And the slump of production in 2009 would not be so great as first variant. B. Beginning with 2010, there would be economic recovery in the USA, European Union and Japan; there would be greater economic growth in China and other key countries of the world economy. This would lead to an increase of demand for traditionally exported Russian goods and would stimulate a noticeable production recovery in Russia by 2010 already. World economic growth would also encourage the stabilization of the Russian banking system, which would get an opportunity to attract financial resources from abroad.
Dynamics of Branch Outputs of Russian Economy in 2008- 2012 according to the Second Scenario (%, 2008 year = 100%) 2009201020112012 GDP 95,399,4107,5116,6 Extractive industry 95,697,099,2102,0 Manufacturing industry 92,493,899,6105,5 including Machine-building industry 85,793,6112,7134,0 Power engineering 96,097,299,299,7 Agriculture 101,5102,6106,8110,8 Construction 82,785,696,2108,7 Transport 87,588,191,595,1 Trade 94,6102,4116,7135,4 Other branches of material production 88,489,995,2101,0 Non-material service 101,5109,0120,5132,8
Amount of Emission Polluting the Atmosphere (thousand tons) according to Results of Forecasting Estimates Amount of Waste Water Discharge (mln. cubic meters) according to Results of Forecasting Estimates
Conclusions Favorable external factors led to rapid economic growth in Russia in 1999-2008. But this growth has appeared to be very unsustainable and economic structure has become more raw- oriented because of a high competitiveness of primary sector. The health and demographic situation in Russia very strongly depends on environment. Significant deterioration of environment attends high morbidity and mortality in Russia. For example, maximum concentration level of harmful substances is 5-10 times higher and more in the atmosphere of 125 Russian cities. The number of yearly registered patients with the first diagnosed disease for every thousand people has increased by 25% in 1992–2007.
Conclusions Proposed approach based on direct and full pollution coefficients allows to take into consideration an environmental competitive restrictions between branches for analysis of a national economy structural transformation. The results show a possible impact of environment restrictions on development of Russian branches, but this possible impact is very negligible, especially to waste water discharging.
Conclusions The results of forecasting with using Dynamic Input-Output Model show us the growth of environmental pressure in 2010-2012 in Russia. The most optimistic from economic development point scenario is the most pessimistic from ecological point because of the most environmental loading. Thus, the results of this study suggest a need for tightening of the Russian environmental legislation.
Coefficients of Water Pollution (cubic m per 1 thou Rbl, before 1998 - per 1 million Rbl) and Air Pollution (tons per 1 million Rbl, before 1998 - per 1 billion Rbl), price of 2003.
Volumes of Waste Water Disposals (million cubic m) and Emissions (thou tons) in Russia
Coefficients of Air-pollutant Formation per Unit of Product (tons per 1 million Rbl, price of 2003)
Volumes of Emissions in Federal Okrugs (FO), thou tons
Volumes of Sewage Purification (billion cubic m) and Pollution Trapping (10 7 tons)
The Proportion of Sewage Treatment Providing Their Standard Quality (%)
Ecological Investment (million Rbl, before 1998 - billion Rbl, price of 2000)
Environmental Protection Cost ($ per 1000 $ of GDP, 2004-2007)
Putting into Operation of Environvental Fixed Assets 199019921997200320052007 Putting intoservice the production facilities for sewage treatment (thou cubic m per day) 2000 751 1004 522 1300 1500 Putting into service the production facilities for pollution trapping (thou cubic m hour) 16400 5642 3101 4378 4200 4100