Presentation on theme: "WIOD (World Input-Output Database): Brief Overview of Data Construction Activities in WP3 Bart Los Faculty of Economics and Business University of Groningen."— Presentation transcript:
WIOD (World Input-Output Database): Brief Overview of Data Construction Activities in WP3 Bart Los Faculty of Economics and Business University of Groningen (WIOD Consortium Meeting Sevilla, 25-27 May, 2011) This project is funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 7th Framework Programme, Theme 8: Socio-Economic Sciences and Humanities. Grant Agreement no: 225 281
Deliverables (Period 1) 3.1 Panel of preliminary International Supply and Use Tables with use broken down by origin domestically produced or imported (by partner country) 3.2 Time-series of preliminary World Input-Output Tables with use broken down by origin Period from 1995 to 2006 40 countries 35 industries and 59 products Scheduled for month 12, delivered in month 17
National Supply and Use Table (output of WP1) Includes use of imported products
International Supply and Use Table (for country A)
Problems in Previous Versions of the Dataset (I) Row and column sums were not always equal: has been solved, problem was due to mistake in aggregation of various consumption categories and various investment categories; Domestic use of intermediates derived as residual (total use minus estimated imports), in limited number of cases negatives appeared. Due to split of imports by end use. If imports of intermediates (in trade data) are very high, they could exceed total use in one or more using industries;
Problems in Previous Versions of the Dataset (II) Solution (for now): assume that import ratios are uniform across all using industries and final use categories. Negatives only appear if total imports exceed total use minus exports. Solution: difference is assumed to be due to re-exports (e.g. imports of electronics into the Netherlands). In such cases, domestic use = 0… Next step, use of information (if available) from benchmark import transactions tables and/or benchmark imported use tables in GRAS-like procedure (see below).
Problems in Previous Versions of the Dataset (III) Negative Exports to Rest of the World 1995: 28% of entries 2006: 36% of entries Cause: Determination of exports to ROW as residual (total exports from Use table – exports to WIOD countries). Various inconsistent sources of trade data Attempt at solution: Express international SUTs in FOB- prices, by estimating/imputing a CIF/FOB margins-matrix and tariffs matrix (by product and country pair) and subtracting these from the cells with imports In a later stage, these will be added to transport services products.
World input-output table (3 regions, industry-by-industry type) Tot Exp Yellow: based on imports in CIF Red: exports in FOB Green: obtained as residual (one column!)
Remaining Negative Exports to the Rest of the World… Results for 2005: negatives by industry (max=40) Mining Leather and footwear Machinery Trade Real estate services Renting of Machinery: Germany -129 billions of US$
Remaining Negative Exports to the Rest of the World… Results for 2005: negatives by country (max=35) US LUX MLT SVN CAN GER: total - 200 billion US$
GRAS-like Procedure to Estimate Import Ratios TU: Total use; DU: Use of domestically produced products; IU: Use of imported products; E: Exports; RE: re-exports. Shaded cells refer to known sets of values. Underlined variables are known. Minimize, subject to:
Issues regarding estimation of ratios Changes in inventories now treated as changes in domestically produced products In benchmark IO and Use tables, imports also contribute to changes in inventories Information about treatment of changes in inventories by NSIs does not give sufficient information about most appropriate way to deal with these in our context. Merge information from end use classification with information from benchmark import tables, or leave it out?
Deliverables WP3 D3.3 (Preliminary WIOTs in constant international prices), month 21: ready, available on website D3.4 (Preliminary integrated and consolidated IOTs for major regions), month 21: not ready, but can be done quickly. Decision on country aggregation needed. Proposal: 1.EU-27 2.North America (USA/CAN) 3.Latin America (MEX/BRA) 4.Developed Asia (JPN/KOR/TWN) 5.Emerging Asia (CHN/IDN/IND) 6.Rest of the World (RUS/TUR/ROW)