1. Future Ready Schools ABCs/AYP - 2007 Background Briefing August 23, 2007 Lou Fabrizio, Ph.D. Director of Accountability Services NC Department of Public Instruction

2. Future Ready Schools 2 ABCs Standards Growth Performance at the school level AYP (adequate yearly progress) 2

3. Future Ready Schools 3 ABCs in the 21st Century Comprehensive review of ABCs during 2004-05 New growth formulas developed as a result 2005-06 – Major transitions and major interactions with US Department of Education (USED)

4. Future Ready Schools 4 ABCs - 2007 Key Points 2 nd year of new growth formulas Continued focus on student achievement, school-level performance Comparisons across years not always apples to apples

5. Future Ready Schools 5 NC Testing Program Foundation for all test-related components used in accountability program Based on NC Standard Course of Study End-of-Grade (Grades 3-8) End-of-Course (High Schools and some Middle Schools) Writing Assessments Alternate Assessments and Other Tests 5

6. Future Ready Schools 6 New in 2006-07 New EOC math (Algebra I, Algebra II, Geometry) and English I assessments with higher standards Third grade mathematics back in growth New Alternate Assessment for students with significant cognitive disabilities (NCEXTEND1)

7. Future Ready Schools 7 ABCs in 2006-07 (Growth) EOG growth in Grades 3-8 EOC growth College University Prep/College Tech Prep (CUP/CTP) Competency Test Passing Rate ABCs Dropout Rate

8. Future Ready Schools 8 Additional High School Components of Growth College University Prep/College Tech Prep completion rate, and the ABCs dropout rate (Not measured on matched set of students; compares this years class to previous classes) Competency Passing Rate is measured on matched set of students; 8 th grade and 10 th grade

9. Future Ready Schools 9 2 nd Year of New Growth Formulas Use two years of prior performance to predict current years performance Includes adjustment for regression to the mean Are designed to be more resilient and reliable as curricula change Reading and mathematics growth calculated independently

10. Future Ready Schools 10 Terms to Know Academic change C-ratio [# met growth divided by # not met growth] AYP growth vs. ABCs growth – they are different

11. Future Ready Schools 11 New Formula AC = CS c-scale – (0.92 x ATPA c-scale ) Where AC = academic change CS = current score ATPA = average of two previous assessment scores

12. Future Ready Schools 12 C-Scale (Change scale) Subtract state mean (standard setting year) from students score Divide by standard deviation (from standard setting year) Scale runs for -4 to +4

13. Future Ready Schools 13 A Single Student Actual Expected Difference 1.382 1.067 +0.315 Met the individual growth standard Use with caution – Precision is +/- 0.5

14. Future Ready Schools 14 How To Interpret Student had 0.315 change (growth) For growth purposes when included with the rest of the school, counts as met For individual interpretations, not out of the range of typical

15. Future Ready Schools 15 School Level – Expected Growth Average all students Academic Change scores together Also, changes in –Dropout rates –CUP/CTP and –Competency pass rate Note: Model is compensatory.

16. Future Ready Schools 16 School Level – High Growth Must make expected growth Must also have C-ratio at or above 1.50 to make high growth

17. Future Ready Schools 17 Performance Composite 2006-07 Percent of Students Scores At or Above Achievement Level III in: EOG Reading and Math (Grades 3-8) 7 EOC tests (Chemistry, Physical Science and Physics were statewide field tests and therefore not included) Writing Grades 4, 7 & 10 Alternate Assessments (NCCLAS, NCEXTEND1, NCEXTEND2) Computer Skills at grade 8

18. Future Ready Schools 18 Calculation of Performance Composite (Example Without Writing, Computer Skills or EXTEND2) # III 65 68 1 2 Total # 72 75 4 3 136 154 %: 90.3 90.7 25.0 66.7 88.3 Read Math NCCLAS EX1 Total Note: Add all numerators and denominators to yield total.

19. Future Ready Schools 19 Incentive Awards/ Consequences Schools Designations Incentive Awards Assistance 19

20. Future Ready Schools 20 School Status Labels and Recognitions 20

21. Future Ready Schools 21 NCLB Component Demonstrating Proficiency All Schools Required to Have 100% Proficiency by 2013-14 School Year Schools Must Make AYP Adequate Yearly Progress

22. Future Ready Schools 22 NCLB Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) State Determines Baseline Subgroups Include: American Indian, Asian, Black, Hispanic, Multi-Racial, White, School as a Whole, Limited English Proficient, Economically Disadvantaged, and Students With Disabilities 95% of Each Subgroup Must Be Tested More Flexibility Granted (Safe Harbor, Confidence Interval, AYP Growth)

23. Future Ready Schools 23 AYP – 2007 Key Points Full Academic Year (FAY) = 140 Days at the Time for Testing Students on EOG/EOC Tests (School & District) Minimum Number of Scores for AYP Group = 40 (School); 40 or 1% (whichever is greater, District) 4-Year Cohort Graduation Rate part of AYP All or Nothing Model

24. Future Ready Schools 24 Think of 41 Hurdles in a Race. (Most Schools Will Have Less, Some May Have More.) 10 Hurdles (Groups) for Reading Achievement 10 Hurdles (Groups) for Reading (95% Tested Rule) 10 Hurdles (Groups) for Mathematics Achievement 10 Hurdles (Groups) for Mathematics (95% Tested Rule) 1 Hurdle for Other Academic Indicator (Attendance or Graduation Rate) for School as a Whole

25. Future Ready Schools 25 AYP Proficiency Goals YearGrades 3-8 (%)Grade 10 (%) ReadingMathReadingMath 2006-07 2007-08 76.7 84.4 65.8 77.2 35.4 56.9 70.8 80.5

26. Future Ready Schools 26 AYP Growth Model Results (% students making growth) by subgroup reported Include proficient students using ABCs growth formula Include non-proficient students using AYP Growth

27. Future Ready Schools 27 Steps for Title I Schools Steps for Title I Schools NOT Making AYP YearSchools StatusSanctions/Improvement Strategies Year One Fails to make AYPNone Year Two Fails to make AYPNone Year Three In Title I School Improvement Year One; Fails to make AYP Public School Choice, technical assistance Year Four In Title I School Improvement Year Two; Fails to make AYP Public School Choice, supplemental educational services, technical assistance

28. Future Ready Schools 28 Steps for Title I Schools Steps for Title I Schools NOT Making AYP YearSchools StatusSanctions/Improvement Strategies Year Five In Title I School Improvement Year Three; Fails to make AYP Public School Choice, supplemental educational services, corrective action, technical assistance Year Six In Title I School Improvement Year Four; Fails to make AYP Public School Choice, supplemental educational services, corrective action, plan for restructuring, technical assistance Year Seven In Title I School Improvement Year Five Public School Choice, supplemental educational services, implement plan for restructuring

29. Future Ready Schools 29 Cohort* Graduation Rate Four-Year Cohort Graduation Rate (now part of AYP in 2006-07) *Follows the same students from grade 9 to12

30. Future Ready Schools 30 Quality Control (Local, Regional, State) Schools (Principals, Teachers, School Testing Coordinators) LEA Testing/Accountability Coordinator/Director Regional Accountability Coordinators (RACs) & Regional Computing Consultants (RCCs) NCDPI Division of Accountability Services

31. Future Ready Schools 31 ABCs/AYP Results for 2006-07 ABCs Report – September 6 http://abcs.ncpublicschools.org