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22nd MOP Bangkok Environmental Effects Assessment Panel EEAP.

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Presentation on theme: "22nd MOP Bangkok Environmental Effects Assessment Panel EEAP."— Presentation transcript:

1 22nd MOP Bangkok Environmental Effects Assessment Panel EEAP

2 TEAP SAP EEAP Depletion of strato- spheric ozone (O 3 ) Stratospheric chemistry, climate Human health Ecosystem health and services Materials Air Quality UV-B radiation ODS applications, cost- effective options O 3 depleting substances

3 Interactions with climate change Environmental Effects Assessment Panel EEAP 22nd MOP Bangkok KEY FOCUS AREAS FROM THE FULL ASSESSMENT REPORT 2010

4 Ozone depletion, climate change, UV radiation Environmental Effects Assessment Panel KEY FINDINGS Strong interactions between O 3 depletion & climate change Future predictions for sun-burning UV-B radiation - effects of O 3, clouds & aerosols Consequences for human Vitamin D production World avoided – implications for effects (UV-B radiation, nm)

5 UV-B radiation: Large variability due to clouds & aerosols Mid-latitudes: increased UV-B irradiances: ca 5% relative to 1980 Large increases in UV-B radiation in areas of large O 3 depletion sufficient to induce sunburn S Hemisphere: cloudier overall than corresponding NH (global satellite data) Ozone depletion, climate change, UV radiation Currently

6 Ozone depletion, climate change, UV radiation Cloud cover increases at high latitudes (by ca 5%) Reduction of UV radiation (UV already low) More difficult to achieve optimal exposure times for sufficient vitamin D production Projected changes in ozone and clouds Cloud cover decreases at low latitudes by ca 3% (near the equator) Increase in UV radiation (UV already high) Additional increase in sunburning-UV of 3 to 6%

7 Total chlorine (ppbv) O 3 (DU) UV Index max calculated using observed & currently predicted chlorine concentrations The Montreal Protocol has PREVENTED large increases in sun-burning UV radiation (UV index) UV Index: an estimation of the UV levels important for the effects on the human skin

8 Human health Environmental Effects Assessment Panel KEY FINDINGS Impacts of UV-B radiation on: Increasing cataract & skin cancer incidence Decreased immunity Interactions with climate change Vitamin D production

9 Environmental Effects Assessment Panel Human health Produced in the skin following UV-B irradiation Supports bone health May decrease risk of: - several internal cancers - autoimmune & infectious diseases - cardiovascular diseases Effectiveness of oral vitamin D supplementation? High vitamin D status beneficial? Need for balancing potential beneficial effects of UV with over-exposure: Importance of vitamin D

10 Environmental Effects Assessment Panel Exposure to sunburning UV-B radiation Major environmental risk for skin cancers M. Norval Squamous cell carcinoma Cutaneous malignant melanoma Basal cell carcinoma Non- melanoma Human health

11 Most common eye cancer in adults May be a link between UV-B radiation & incidence Malignant melanoma of the eye A. Cullen Occurs in ca 5-20% of the population Often after first spring/summer exposure UV-induced allergy S. Ibbotson

12 P. Newman, R. McKenzie By 2065: Peak values of sun-burning UV radiation could have tripled at mid- northern latitudes With the MP, clear-sky UV radiation _ only slightly greater than that prior to the start of O 3 depletion Sun-burning UV radiation with and without the Montreal Protocol World avoided: Human health protected

13 Higher temperatures likely lead to more skin cancers For the same UV irradiance: for every 1 0 C increase, estimated 3-6% increase in skin cancers Human health Combinations of climate change & solar UV radiation Several indications of further interactions Increase in certain infectious diseases (malaria, Lyme) Increase in allergic diseases Suppression of the immune response to disease Increased photosensitivity of the skin (temp., dust -deserts)

14 Decreased plant productivity in areas of large ozone depletion Climate change & land-use change: Regional increased UV-B radiation UV radiation and climate change: - Implications for food security & quality - Evolving ecosystem modifications & acclimation to UV radiation & climate Terrestrial ecosystems Environmental Effects Assessment Panel KEY FINDINGS

15 Terrestrial ecosystems Plant growth is reduced in response to increased UV ca 6% reduction in plant growth since 1980 in areas of significant ozone depletion Caused by: - direct damage - increased diversion of plant resources towards protection and repair processes Consequences: - long-term effects of reduced plant growth may be important for potential carbon capture/retention Plant productivity & adaptation/repair

16 - UV Turnbull et al High pigment levels UV-B radiation causes damage in Antarctic plants Microscopic views Pigment loss Loss of green pigment Reduced growth Green pigment used for energy capture & growth + UV

17 - UV S. RobinsonN. Paul Mosses + UV Lettuce Many plants produce screening pigments that protect against UV damage (induced antioxidants)

18 Terrestrial ecosystems Combinations of predicted climate change & UV radiation Effects on plant and ecosystem response Example 1 Spread of plant pests with increasing temperature, rainfall + >>> UV-B radiation: large effects on plant interactions with pests Induces increases in certain compounds usually decreases plant consumption by e.g. insects Important implications for food security and quality

19 Environmental Effects Assessment Panel Terrestrial ecosystems Combinations of predicted climate change & UV radiation Effects on plant and ecosystem response Example 2 Moderate drought: decreases UV sensitivity in plants But further decreases in rain + increasing temperatures: Reduced plant growth and survival

20 Predicted reduced cloud cover (low latitudes) Deforestation Land-use changes Terrestrial ecosystems UV radiation and global environmental change Increased UV radiation exposure Example 3 Promotes decay of dead plant material important ecosystem process for nutrient cycling also CO 2 loss to the atmosphere

21 Increased exposure to UV radiation with climate change Potentially greater vulnerability to UV radiation Changes in UV transparency of waters -Increased in some regions -Decreased in others Consequences for sensitivity of waterborne human pathogens to UV radiation Environmental Effects Assessment Panel Aquatic ecosystems KEY FINDINGS

22 Environmental Effects Assessment Panel Main factors affecting the quantity & quality of UV radiation received by aquatic organisms Ozone layer UV attenuation Clouds,aerosols

23 Environmental Effects Assessment Panel Depth, m Irradiance as % of surface UV-B, 305 nm UV-A, 380 nm Visible light High UV irradiance Low levels of dissolved organic matter >>> penetration Penetration of UV-B, UV-A radiation and visible light in an alpine lake

24 Aquatic ecosystems Environmental climate driven changes may exceed protective strategies to adapt to UV radiation Climate change and solar UV radiation Increasing temperature increases breakdown of dissolved organic material More UV exposure to aquatic organisms Increasing CO 2 Increases acidity (low pH) Decreases skeletal formation in calcified organisms more vulnerable to solar UV B radiation

25 UV radiation & climate change interactions accelerate global carbon cycling Effect of decreased uptake of atmospheric CO 2 by oceans on living organisms Causes & consequences of increased production and release of nitrous oxide Biogeochemical cycles Environmental Effects Assessment Panel KEY FINDINGS

26 Central to UV and climate change Solar UV radiation Carbon cycling in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems Climate change Biogeochemistry of trace gases and aerosols Feedbacks

27 Projected warmer and drier conditions increases UV-induced breakdown of dead plant material Negative effects of climate change & UV radiation on aquatic organisms decrease uptake of atmospheric CO 2 by the oceans Climate-related increases in run-off of organic material from land to oceans and UV-induced breakdown of this material increase emission of CO 2 from the oceans Biogeochemical cycles Predicted increase in atmospheric CO 2 may enhance global warming beyond current predictions

28 Biogeochemical cycles Climate-related increase in run-off also increases nitrogen input in to the oceans; further N inputs from atmosphere Increasing production of nitrous oxide, (N 2 O) Increases O 3 -depletionIncreases the GH effect Increases UV radiation

29 Projected increase in tropospheric ozone (low & mid-latitudes) Implications of changes in climate, pollutants & stratospheric O 3 on human health & the environment Likely insignificant effect of breakdown products of ODS substitutes -hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) -hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Environmental Effects Assessment Panel Tropospheric air quality KEY FINDINGS

30 Tropospheric air quality Future changes in UV radiation & climate will modify air quality UV initiates production of hydroxyl radicals ( OH) A controlling factor of photochemical smog With O 3 recovery, less UV OH is an atmospheric cleaning agent, destroys many air pollutants, ODS, GHGs OH is predicted to decrease globally by ca 20% by 2100 Potential for increased photochemical smog Negative effects on human health, environment Consequences

31 Further increase in tropospheric O 3 in mid-latitudes (ca 4 ppbv) Drivers used in the models for this: - doubling of CO % increase in emissions of plant compounds (isoprene) - doubling of emissions of soil-derived NOx (from human activity, and from the ocean) Predicted changes in surface ozone between 2000 & 2050 because of climate change and interactions with atmospheric chemistry Tropospheric air quality

32 TFA: currently judged to present a negligible risk to human health or the environment Salt lakes with no outflow, loss by evaporation only – negligible effects from TFA Small fraction of TFA from natural sources – negligible effect Breakdown in soil and water TFA HFCs, HFOs, and HCFCs CF 3 - CX y H O CF 3 -C-OH O CF 2 Cl-C-OH Breakdown of CFC replacements into trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) chloro- difluoroacetic

33 Implications of climate change for construction materials UV radiation degrades plastics & wood Increased damage with high temperatures, humidity, & atmospheric pollutants Current availability of photostabilisers as protective measures/agents Environmental Effects Assessment Panel Materials damage KEY FINDINGS

34 Increase in Solar UV Increase in Temp. Increase in Humidity Increase in Pollutants S, NOx, O 3 Polymer Wood Effect of climatic variables on light-induced degradation of materials +, effectiveness

35 Improved stabilisation technologies Allow service lifetimes of materials to be maintained or improved Some control of deleterious environmental effects Stabilisers Relatively high solar UV radiation stability Plastic nanocomposites and wood-plastic composites Nanofillers in composites Environmental Effects Assessment Panel Materials damage UV radiation and climate change shorten useful outdoor lifetimes of materials

36 UV radiation discoloration effects on polymer pigments UV-caused chalking of vinyl siding & rundown with rain UV-caused chalking from titanium dioxide in rigid PVC Degraded surfaces release titanium dioxide bound in the PVC matrix Titanium dioxide (TiO 2 )- photostabiliser for plastics

37 Adapted from Fabiyi et al & Taylor et al., 2009 Products made with wood-plastic composites Pine wood surface after 2 years of outdoor exposure Materials damage Use of composites to lessen UV degradation of materials

38 Solar UV radiation Current & future climate change interactions with UV radiation add to the uncertainty of many aspects of environmental impacts Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems Human health Materials Climate change LINKAGES: Environmental effects of O 3 depletion & its interactions with climate change

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